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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Buybacks permanently increase EPS by decreasing outstanding shares.
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You can't look at it that way. It's the volume of shares traded above average. Now you're talking more like 10 billion. It's not about shares Tesla is buying back today offsetting selling pressure, especially when the stock is being targeted heavily. It would however, explain why there's such a huge increase in volume over the average trading volume.
Plus as @ZeApelido just pointed out, buy backs retire shares, increasing EPS.
I’m a big believer in buybacks as a means to return capital, by yes increasing EPS and increasing the percent ownership of the company of every outstanding share remaining (Apple shareholders have done very well from this).
That is entirely separate to many posters here hopping a buyback would “burn the shorts” By causing a big stock price pop, which is unlikely to happen IIMO
That is entirely separate to many posters here hopping a buyback would “burn the shorts” By causing a big stock price pop, which is unlikely to happen IIMO
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
So apparently most “hypergrowth” companies actually tend to grow quadratically and then linearly. I found that surprising and it means Tesla’s growth being actually exponential is pretty rare and unprecedented for a large tech company.
Some of the examples presented in the essay:
trayloader
Member
Koguan Leo getting cold feet?
….or margin called.
ARK Scenarios from link above for 2024:
We can dispense with the autonomous for now. Tesla definitely appears to be The High Functioning EV Company. These are pre pre split price targets, so divide by 15. We would be looking at an SP of 225 for 2024. Seems that ARK's projections in 2018 / 2020 were laughably low. At the time they were continuously brought on TV as comedy relief to be laughed off stage.
"Based on this probability matrix, our bear case implies that Tesla will sell 3.2 million vehicles in 2024, cutting its share of total EV sales roughly in half compared to today’s levels."
Their bear case puts TSLA at 3.2 million cars sold in 2024 and a 300B MC. They massively underestimated the profitability of TSLA without any autonomous at all. This would be a SP of around 100 come 2024 which would put their PE in the mid single digits. Not very likely. I don't see any provisions in their target for the energy division at all.
My conservative base case for 2024 at this point is a finally pivoted FED and an undervalued TSLA trading at a 30 Forward PE with a 30+ percent revenue growth annual rate. Let's call the SP 500.
We can dispense with the autonomous for now. Tesla definitely appears to be The High Functioning EV Company. These are pre pre split price targets, so divide by 15. We would be looking at an SP of 225 for 2024. Seems that ARK's projections in 2018 / 2020 were laughably low. At the time they were continuously brought on TV as comedy relief to be laughed off stage.
"Based on this probability matrix, our bear case implies that Tesla will sell 3.2 million vehicles in 2024, cutting its share of total EV sales roughly in half compared to today’s levels."
Their bear case puts TSLA at 3.2 million cars sold in 2024 and a 300B MC. They massively underestimated the profitability of TSLA without any autonomous at all. This would be a SP of around 100 come 2024 which would put their PE in the mid single digits. Not very likely. I don't see any provisions in their target for the energy division at all.
My conservative base case for 2024 at this point is a finally pivoted FED and an undervalued TSLA trading at a 30 Forward PE with a 30+ percent revenue growth annual rate. Let's call the SP 500.
...and as Tesla has been acting like a startup as a public company, the model still applies IMO. Happy to be wrong.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Leaking from the Twitter thread to post FUD here now?
I realize your position on feelings over statistics might make this difficult, but I would encourage you to look at the sales data for Teslas over other EVs as well as the measurements the team at Munro has shared to get a sense of how much overlap in opinion most car buyers have with you on this topic.
Sorry to sound like a broken record, but I’ve increased my tesla holdings (not a nominal number) by 50% in the past 24 hrs. Ready to buy more if we go substantially lower.
Good luck!
Good luck!
Man, I'm jealous of you. If only I had some more dry powder left
im not sure I see any accumulating going on using accumulation/distribution line, my own and Schwabs, as of 3:30pm EST today
are you using a different indicator to follow that, mine uses OHLCV
(edit)
the vol since August 24th has doubled using linear regression line
It is a good time to do the buyback becuase the share price is low.
It can act as a circuit-breaker or a change of narrative for a while.
More like slowing declines or setting a price floor, until production and deliveries, the next earnings call, or some other significant news.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
I'm into buybacks. Leased vehicle buybacks to put to work in the RT fleet that is...
That ARK analysis was from 2020, they updated it in April this year with a forecast out to 2026 but note it appears these are price targets from before the August stock split
ARK’s Expected Value For Tesla In 2026: $4,600 per Share
ARK’s updated open-source Tesla model yields an expected value per share of $4,600 in 2026. Please explore and test our assumptions.
ark-invest.com
Robotaxis and human-driven ride hail revenue (this would be a human behind the wheel and FSD operating I'm guessing? Not sure how this results in $$$ for Tesla) ranging from 40%-70% of company revenue by 2026 lol
I agree on that notion. I don't think buy back should be to "roast" the shorts. If that's a result of it, then that's fine.
But doing a buyback now has many benefits
- Increase EPS
- Lower PE multiples attracting more value/conservative institutional investors
- Reduces dilution by allowing company to buy low and then if cash is needed for expansion, offer shares again at higher valuation
- Signals to more value/conservative institutional investors that the board will support the stock.
- Institutional investors that are buying in because of valuation, not growth, are more stable institutional investors to have in the stock. Which will result in less volatility.
Wow some massive buy blocks coming in these final 15 mins.
One that was 2.32 million shares and another just now for 3.5 million shares.
And yet......the stock doesn't move
Nah totally normal action
One that was 2.32 million shares and another just now for 3.5 million shares.
And yet......the stock doesn't move
Nah totally normal actionI've been all in on Tesla for the past few years. Even after eliminating margins and deleveraging options, I put everything back into shares or less volatile options.
However, the past couple days I've sold off a third of my TSLA portfolio without putting it back. I'm planning to sell another third in the near future. It doesn't seem like the best time to sell, but I didn't think selling at 800 was great either when I needed to pay taxes.
I invested in TSLA because of Elon, and ironically am selling because of Elon. Being honest with myself, I would not invest with who Elon has become today. He's pursuing interests that are mostly irrelevant to the mission, and at worst detrimental to TSLA. He's becoming more "outspoken" with expressing his personal opinions on his bully pulpit.
Tesla is executing brilliantly. I can see it doubling or tripling. I can also see it going down to a PE of 30. If that happens, I'll buy again. If TSLA goes up, I'll be happy because I have enough left in my portfolio to make it worthwhile.
I may not be able to buy my own mountain or island, but all I really need is enough. I'll be forever grateful for this forum because it's enabled a lifestyle over the past year that's far beyond anything I could have imagined.
However, the past couple days I've sold off a third of my TSLA portfolio without putting it back. I'm planning to sell another third in the near future. It doesn't seem like the best time to sell, but I didn't think selling at 800 was great either when I needed to pay taxes.
I invested in TSLA because of Elon, and ironically am selling because of Elon. Being honest with myself, I would not invest with who Elon has become today. He's pursuing interests that are mostly irrelevant to the mission, and at worst detrimental to TSLA. He's becoming more "outspoken" with expressing his personal opinions on his bully pulpit.
Tesla is executing brilliantly. I can see it doubling or tripling. I can also see it going down to a PE of 30. If that happens, I'll buy again. If TSLA goes up, I'll be happy because I have enough left in my portfolio to make it worthwhile.
I may not be able to buy my own mountain or island, but all I really need is enough. I'll be forever grateful for this forum because it's enabled a lifestyle over the past year that's far beyond anything I could have imagined.
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