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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Already ~$23 Billion worth of shares traded today, even If Tesla blew $5 Billion on buybacks it might not soak up the selling Pressure of a single day like today, let alone a week or month.
You can't look at it that way. It's the volume of shares traded above average. Now you're talking more like 10 billion. It's not about shares Tesla is buying back today offsetting selling pressure, especially when the stock is being targeted heavily. It would however, explain why there's such a huge increase in volume over the average trading volume.

Plus as @ZeApelido just pointed out, buy backs retire shares, increasing EPS.
 
I’m a big believer in buybacks as a means to return capital, by yes increasing EPS and increasing the percent ownership of the company of every outstanding share remaining (Apple shareholders have done very well from this).

That is entirely separate to many posters here hopping a buyback would “burn the shorts” By causing a big stock price pop, which is unlikely to happen IIMO
 
So apparently most “hypergrowth” companies actually tend to grow quadratically and then linearly. I found that surprising and it means Tesla’s growth being actually exponential is pretty rare and unprecedented for a large tech company.

Some of the examples presented in the essay:

1670963321232.png

1670963372515.png
 
ARK Scenarios from link above for 2024:

1670962556719.png


We can dispense with the autonomous for now. Tesla definitely appears to be The High Functioning EV Company. These are pre pre split price targets, so divide by 15. We would be looking at an SP of 225 for 2024. Seems that ARK's projections in 2018 / 2020 were laughably low. At the time they were continuously brought on TV as comedy relief to be laughed off stage.

"Based on this probability matrix, our bear case implies that Tesla will sell 3.2 million vehicles in 2024, cutting its share of total EV sales roughly in half compared to today’s levels."

Their bear case puts TSLA at 3.2 million cars sold in 2024 and a 300B MC. They massively underestimated the profitability of TSLA without any autonomous at all. This would be a SP of around 100 come 2024 which would put their PE in the mid single digits. Not very likely. I don't see any provisions in their target for the energy division at all.

My conservative base case for 2024 at this point is a finally pivoted FED and an undervalued TSLA trading at a 30 Forward PE with a 30+ percent revenue growth annual rate. Let's call the SP 500.
 
So apparently most “hypergrowth” companies actually tend to grow quadratically and then linearly. I found that surprising and it means Tesla’s growth being actually exponential is pretty rare and unprecedented for a large tech company.

Some of the examples presented in the essay:

View attachment 884593
View attachment 884595

...and as Tesla has been acting like a startup as a public company, the model still applies IMO. Happy to be wrong.
 
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I don't know, maybe I just haven't drank the Tesla coolaid (I clearly haven't), but if one was looking for basic transportation or some of the other offerings now (Taycan, iX, i4, Ioniq 5, Mach-E) they certainly seem comparable for most use cases outside of the super charging network that someone may or may not use much.

I never saw the other products as inferior as so many people here claim I guess. The minimalistic design isn't for everyone, no front center console is annoying, buttons for everything (like volume, glove box), lack of service centers, panel gaps (hit/miss), no 360 camera, no android/carplay, poor handling (MY), cost/price for what you get (see enough posts on this from folks who wouldn't buy it now if they had to shell out current prices), looks like an egg (MY) and common as a prius (see 5 teslas anytime you're out). I don't see the allure anymore.

I "get" people who paid a lot less for a MY back in the day for $50k, but that vehicle is minimum $67k+ now.

I have driven Teslas and at the end of the day, it's still just a car to me. It's not that much better (not better at all) than other stuff (to me) that gets me from A to B. Like with Tesla solar, Tesla solar is sorta worst than their competition in that department (no choice/flexibility and in some cases, not much/any cheaper). The other EV options can only get better from here, but I always find the "inferior product" I've seen people spout annoying when I don't see the competition as inferior personally.

I guess good for me not even wanting a Tesla to start with and this is pre-Elon Twitter craziness.
Leaking from the Twitter thread to post FUD here now?

I realize your position on feelings over statistics might make this difficult, but I would encourage you to look at the sales data for Teslas over other EVs as well as the measurements the team at Munro has shared to get a sense of how much overlap in opinion most car buyers have with you on this topic.
 
143 million shares (and counting) to send the stock down 3%? No, they be able to drop the stock way more than that if today's heavy volume was just shorting, margin calls, etc. Yeah I don't think so.

There's huge amount of accumulation happening today. It would be much worse if we were underperforming the macro's on such a level at such a low valuation on low or even normal volume. That would tell me there's not a lot of interest from buyers at all. You can't have capitulation with low or regular volume.
im not sure I see any accumulating going on using accumulation/distribution line, my own and Schwabs, as of 3:30pm EST today
are you using a different indicator to follow that, mine uses OHLCV
(edit)
the vol since August 24th has doubled using linear regression line
1670964046555.png
 
I’m a big believer in buybacks as a means to return capital, by yes increasing EPS and increasing the percent ownership of the company of every outstanding share remaining (Apple shareholders have done very well from this).

That is entirely separate to many posters here hopping a buyback would “burn the shorts” By causing a big stock price pop, which is unlikely to happen IIMO

It is a good time to do the buyback becuase the share price is low.

It can act as a circuit-breaker or a change of narrative for a while.

More like slowing declines or setting a price floor, until production and deliveries, the next earnings call, or some other significant news.
 
ARK Scenarios from link above for 2024:

View attachment 884586

We can dispense with the autonomous for now. Tesla definitely appears to be The High Functioning EV Company. These are pre pre split price targets, so divide by 15. We would be looking at an SP of 225 for 2024. Seems that ARK's projections in 2018 / 2020 were laughably low. At the time they were continuously brought on TV as comedy relief to be laughed off stage.

"Based on this probability matrix, our bear case implies that Tesla will sell 3.2 million vehicles in 2024, cutting its share of total EV sales roughly in half compared to today’s levels."

Their bear case puts TSLA at 3.2 million cars sold in 2024 and a 300B MC. They massively underestimated the profitability of TSLA without any autonomous at all. This would be a SP of around 100 come 2024 which would put their PE in the mid single digits. Not very likely. I don't see any provisions in their target for the energy division at all.

My conservative base case for 2024 at this point is a finally pivoted FED and an undervalued TSLA trading at a 30 Forward PE with a 30+ percent revenue growth annual rate. Let's call the SP 500.
That ARK analysis was from 2020, they updated it in April this year with a forecast out to 2026 but note it appears these are price targets from before the August stock split


Robotaxis and human-driven ride hail revenue (this would be a human behind the wheel and FSD operating I'm guessing? Not sure how this results in $$$ for Tesla) ranging from 40%-70% of company revenue by 2026 lol
 
I’m a big believer in buybacks as a means to return capital, by yes increasing EPS and increasing the percent ownership of the company of every outstanding share remaining (Apple shareholders have done very well from this).

That is entirely separate to many posters here hopping a buyback would “burn the shorts” By causing a big stock price pop, which is unlikely to happen IIMO
I agree on that notion. I don't think buy back should be to "roast" the shorts. If that's a result of it, then that's fine.

But doing a buyback now has many benefits

- Increase EPS
- Lower PE multiples attracting more value/conservative institutional investors
- Reduces dilution by allowing company to buy low and then if cash is needed for expansion, offer shares again at higher valuation
- Signals to more value/conservative institutional investors that the board will support the stock.
- Institutional investors that are buying in because of valuation, not growth, are more stable institutional investors to have in the stock. Which will result in less volatility.
 
I've been all in on Tesla for the past few years. Even after eliminating margins and deleveraging options, I put everything back into shares or less volatile options.

However, the past couple days I've sold off a third of my TSLA portfolio without putting it back. I'm planning to sell another third in the near future. It doesn't seem like the best time to sell, but I didn't think selling at 800 was great either when I needed to pay taxes.

I invested in TSLA because of Elon, and ironically am selling because of Elon. Being honest with myself, I would not invest with who Elon has become today. He's pursuing interests that are mostly irrelevant to the mission, and at worst detrimental to TSLA. He's becoming more "outspoken" with expressing his personal opinions on his bully pulpit.

Tesla is executing brilliantly. I can see it doubling or tripling. I can also see it going down to a PE of 30. If that happens, I'll buy again. If TSLA goes up, I'll be happy because I have enough left in my portfolio to make it worthwhile.

I may not be able to buy my own mountain or island, but all I really need is enough. I'll be forever grateful for this forum because it's enabled a lifestyle over the past year that's far beyond anything I could have imagined.