Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

You can make an ICE look much more efficient if you make the assumption that the passenger wants the cabin to be 100 degrees all the time. (I.e. you reduce the waste heat by using it.)

Celsius or Fahrenheit?

 

[Nocturnal]

I know a traffic engineer who contended that Tesla's were far less safe than their peers. Because his job is traffic safety he had access to data for making that declaration. However, he made no effort to back the claim up and is an EV denier which makes his claim suspect without supporting evidence. As just a sampling of things he has told me:

1. grid cannot support EV.

I work in Utilities. Tell him to kindly stick to deciding how long red lights should last and leave power issues to those in the business. (for transparency I'm not a grid engineer, I work on the software side of things but I believe I'm qualified to speak to that one)

 

[Buckminster]

OT 75D S/X

We were expecting an interior refresh in the near term and then major refresh in a little while longer. It is possible that a couple of things have happened:

Looked at refreshing interior - pulling the thread - you really want to:

• Interior - new wiring
• Incorporate new air con, super bottle - wiring etc. plus knock-ons to other systems
• HW3.5 cameras?? - wiring, body change?
• M3 motors - wiring, chassis changes
• Interior camera - wiring
• Decrease labour content in assembly / chassis

If you decide to do half of these, you might as well incorporate 2170s (chassis changes (likely IMO), wiring changes plus cooling changes) where you get the real payback. Given the number of new platforms coming (semi, Y, roadster, pickup, SRM3), it is also possible that Elon wants to get the S/X out of the way.

Like Brexit - currently at "peak confused"..

I find the reasoning regarding the 18650 production convincing.

To reconcile that with my wishful thinking that Straubel et al have managed to fit the 2170-cell into the Model S/X pack, I like my own speculation that the 100 kWh pack will remain unmodified (at a reduced price) and that a new, higher-capacity 2170-based pack will be introduced soon.

The competition is talking about cars that will arrive in a couple of years, yet match Tesla Model S/X as they were a couple of years ago, so for Tesla to offer e.g. a 120 kWh(*) pack will really make the competition sweat.

Btw, you have likely forgotten more about Tesla than most people know...

(*) PS. If the 2170 fits, the Model S/X pack can likely hold more than 120 kWh, but then that can come as upgrades later on.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Very sedate price action from Tesla late this morning. Quite uncharacteristic.

 

[KarenRei]

Very sedate price action from Tesla late this morning. Quite uncharacteristic.

Don't speak so soon

 

[anthonyj]

Ultimate day/swing trading stock. Can’t find anything else like it

 

[KarenRei]

Ultimate day/swing trading stock. Can’t find anything else like it

I know, right? I wish there were more stocks like this: highly volatile story stocks for which I'm well convinced of the investment thesis.

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

Everyone will give you different answers, and they of course depend on the timeframe.

I'll give you my numbers of a larger-pack Model S being introduced in the next three months: 7%: 4,5% odds of a more energy-dense 18650 chemistry, 2,5% of switching to 2170s. But I'd give 12% odds of a new drive unit in the next 3 months, and 35% odds in the next 6 months.

Also remember: Musk is trying to draw peoples' attention away from kWh capacity and simply toward range. Short range, mid range, long range, etc. Range comes not just from the battery pack size, but also vehicle and drivetrain efficiency.

I keep thinking in this direction too. Maybe 75->100 is too big of a step. Maybe the new low is 85 or 90. And the price for this would be pretty close to 75, which is why they wouldn't want to talk about it until they are done with 75 deliveries - or people will start demanding cancellations/discounts.
And then afterwards they could possibly add 110/120. I have my doubts though if there's really any opportunity for such increase in the battery capacity w/o some significant design improvements/upgrade of the 18650 cell and so far I'm not sold on the idea that they'll switch to 2170s in S/X. Maybe they keep prices a bit elevated for a while not to piss off people who just bought a smaller battery and decrease prices few months down the road?
If the "very long range" is indeed 20%+, then it's likely a 2170 switch and a redesign to account for the cell height difference.

Another possibility is throttle 100kw pack and call it SR where it is 85kw equivalent, then keep 100kw with improvement reaching 350miles range for MR, at the end of the year putting 2170 to get to ~400miles pack and make it LR while save 1860 cells for SR and MR.

 

[anthonyj]

I know, right? I wish there were more stocks like this: highly volatile story stocks for which I'm well convinced of the investment thesis.

It sure likes to crawl up the stairs and jump out the window though

 

[Cherry Wine]

Don't speak so soon

Figures.

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

On a side note, let's see if we can defense 335SP today, if not then $30x coming very likely. Get ready to load up before ER ladies & gents.

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

Ultimate day/swing trading stock. Can’t find anything else like it

Had you seen Netflix, IQ, Tilray lately?

 

[Cherry Wine]

On a side note, let's see if we can defense 350SP today, if not then $30x coming very likely. Get ready to load up before ER ladies & gents.

$350? Do you mean $330?

 

[KarenRei]

Wonder what's going on. Pretty steep plunge in progress. I don't see any news.

Something new out of the Detroit Auto Show?

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

$350? Do you mean $330?

$335 sorry.

 

[Drax7]

CNBC running an article stating that Goldman says sell tesla before earnings based on missed deliveries
And competition. That’s all I see on the negative side so far today.

 

[sparcs]

No, there's not been some secret 10GWh extra capacity installed at Giga (in addition to everything else that would be required at Fremont). And don't hold your breath waiting for some grand announcement at all when 75D sales end. At the very least, if they plan to do anything at all, they'll probably wait at least a week or two so that it doesn't seem like a giant middle finger (if it's a good thing they do) to the people who just bought 75Ds.

Another alternative. Would it be plausible for Tesla to increase the size of the base battery back to something like 85 kWh?

 

[Cherry Wine]

CNBC running an article stating that Goldman says sell tesla before earnings based on missed deliveries
And competition. That’s all I see on the negative side so far today.

I need an "Informative / Funny" rating for this one.

 

[SpaceCash]

Wonder what's going on. Pretty steep plunge in progress. I don't see any news.

Something new out of the Detroit Auto Show?

Probably just routine SAF shenanigans

 

[jhm]

Gawd. Your acquaintance also, however, has access to data that we do have and, apparently, with those data he has come up with the clunkers you cited.

So I'm going to commit a Fallacy By Association and say that his other claim therefore carries no weight.

I know it is heresy, but lately I've been questioning the value of certain logical fallacies. The problem is that we live in the world of intentional misinformation. When person or source demonstrates that they are highly susceptible to carrying propagandistic misinformation, it may well be better to give weight to much of anything they say than to invite in a whole payload of misinformation and logical fallacies. That is, it this case the person is an engineer and as such would hold some higher level of credibility on such matters. To press that professional credential here would be an appeal to authority, itself a logical fallacy. But the engineer in question holds views that casts doubts on these very credentials. No true engineer would claim that gasoline IC engines are 60% efficient. But if you take such as the word of an engineers, it's slippery slope until you are convinced that an EV has more energy cost per mile than gasoline or that the grid cannot hand demand from EVs. So you risk inconsistency and red herrings and whatnot, unless you commit yourself to rejecting such a person as a credible source of information and perspective. Thus, the fallacy by association as a justification for granting any credibility to such an informant is itself a fallacy. Good thing this engineer only works in traffic engineering and not something life critical...oh, wait.