Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EverettRuess]

Tesla in Utah has just built a second showroom store. My only other choices are Phoenix or Vegas. They just told me there are many cars, all models, available for end of the year pickup with the current incentives. Tesla told me they don't expect to have any left a week from now.

 

[Krugerrand]

this has been posted 3-4 times in < 24 hrs, I feel like a victim of the ladder now
Personally I have already acknowledged, thinking of best solutions (portfolio shuffling, margin mgmt)... but I can't embrace the reason for the dip.

maybe time to add to "Posts of merit" .. cheers!!

You don’t embrace the reason for the dip. The reason doesn’t matter. You simply accept there was a dip and then be proactive from there - which is what you’ve done. So it’s ‘over’, ‘past’. Let it go. Move on. That’s the point.

 

[elasalle]

You don’t embrace the reason for the dip. The reason doesn’t matter. You simply accept there was a dip and then be proactive from there - which is what you’ve done. So it’s ‘over’, ‘past’. Let it go. Move on. That’s the point.

Yeah that’s why I suggested it don’t keep getting posted in a loop

And reasons do matter- if it was based on fundamentals- I would be outta the game

 

[Rarity]

How come such a blatant mistake - & do these numbers impact the next FED decisions?

These types of errors happen all of the time. Perhaps not so blatant, but often of similar or larger magnitude if taken together.

Worth stating again that all of the economic statistics that the Fed relies upon have large error bars and are routinely revised substantially as much as several years after the fact. Yes, you should be concerned about this, especially when the Fed says that they are "data dependent."

 

[wipster]

Pretty damn cool...
Nice of PepsiCo to do Tesla's advertising for them!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604003678561738753

Edit: Vid was taken at Rancho Cordova, CA. Apparently there were 2 that were sighted.

This is so fracking cool! Good on PepsiCo. I expect some TV commercials touting Zero Emissions in the very near future! I know it's already caused me to switch from Diet Coke to Diet Pepsi and that's a pretty big deal!

 

[Krugerrand]

Yeah that’s why I suggested it don’t keep getting posted in a loop

And reasons do matter- if it was based on fundamentals- I would be outta the game

Never mind.

 

[StealthP3D]

Could have been done for a fraction of the cost and no damage to the share price with a small PR department who would actually reply to reporters when contacted. We've seen many stories with "Tesla did not respond", which let the FUD hang in the air unchallenged. Also an active account on ALL social media sites responding the the FUD.

The media is habitually trying to paint Tesla in the most negative light possible. When will you learn that it's most often better to say nothing to the media, than to get in a recurring "tit for tat" with them that just continues the narrative?

If Tesla denies, then the media says, "Tesla denied the reports on Tuesday but, on Wednesday, Mark Buttlinger of Big Fart Capital said, "Enron also denied accounting irregularities just two weeks before regulators raided their offices and seized computers and boxes full of documents. It's often quietest right before the storm". Other investors are questioning how the denial could possibly be true."

For a company that so many want to fail, including most of the mainstream media, it's almost always better to focus on the tasks at hand, proving the rumors wrong by your actions, rather than giving the rumors and the people who create them credibility by commenting on them. If a lack of comment on every silly rumor shakes your confidence as an investor, maybe you should look within yourself to see why you give such rumors so much credibility rather than blaming the company for doing the best thing and not giving the rumors more legs than they already have. It's better to just say nothing, most of time. That way saying nothing becomes the expected norm.

 

[navguy12]

Delayed last margarita good news (I think, if true).

Vanguard now owns nearly 60% more Tesla stock than it did two years ago.
BlackRock is aggressively adding Tesla shares. Its number of shares held is up nearly 46% in two years' time.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603885534828437504

It would be interesting to see what the delta was over the past 12 months…

 

[wipster]

The media is habitually trying to paint Tesla in the most negative light possible. When will you learn that it's most often better to say nothing to the media, than to get in a recurring "tit for tat" with them that just continues the narrative?

If Tesla denies, then the media says, "Tesla denied the reports on Tuesday but, on Wednesday, Mark Buttlinger of Big Fart Capital said, "Enron also denied accounting irregularities just two weeks before regulators raided their offices and seized computers and boxes full of documents. It's often quietest right before the storm". Other investors are questioning how the denial could possibly be true."

For a company that so many want to fail, including most of the mainstream media, it's almost always better to focus on the tasks at hand, proving the rumors wrong by your actions, rather than giving the rumors and the people who create them credibility by commenting on them. If a lack of comment on every silly rumor shakes your confidence as an investor, maybe you should look within yourself to see why you give such rumors so much credibility rather than blaming the company for doing the best thing and not giving the rumors more legs than they already have. It's better to just say nothing, most of time. That way saying nothing becomes the expected norm.

Concur completely @StealthP3D. Rather than going tit for tat in replies, which can be exhausting and raise your pulse and blood pressure, it would be much better if Tesla, or a dedicated group of people experienced and knowledgeable writers talk over the FUD, especially with positive headlines (as that's all many people read anyway). I know this has been discussed many times here and I've sent a 6 tweet memo to Martin Viecha (with Elon copied) addressing the issue and a possible solution. We'll see if something similar gets implemented, hopefully soon!

 

[StealthP3D]

Here's a different perspective YOU can try:

"Sometimes, I’m just plain wrong!" -Elon Musk

This is a false narrative that keeps coming up.

No one said Elon is never wrong, the question is, who is right most of the time, Elon or his detractors who act like they know more than he does? I put my money on people who have proven they are right more often.

 

[navguy12]

SS/dd for Roto-REUTERS w. yet another in a series of embarrasing and/or willfully inaccurate Tesla articles:

"Exclusive: PepsiCo to roll out 100 Tesla Semis in 2023, exec says"​

Some of the numerous specious claims in this article are that:

• Semi has 450 miles of range hauling Fritolay chips, but only 100 miles range hauling Pepsi soda
  • ignores Tesla video demonstration of 500 miles range at 81,000 lbs gross weight
  • REUTERS tries to lowball Semi's ability to haul a full load
• Megacharger has only 750 Kw of power:
  • actual charging performance is ~640 Kwh in 30 min
  • that's an avg 1.28 Mw of power for half an hour, not 750 Kw
  • REUTERS tries to lowball the power of Megacharger

Rob Maurer does an epic takedown of this trash REUTERS article in his video from yesterday:

New Tesla Semi Details | inaccurate REUTERS article | Tesla Daily

REUTERS is unmasked now for all to see. They are practially Saudi agents at this point (or whoever pays the most for a hitpiece article).

Shameful corruption in the Media. <snip OT> but u kno what I was about to say...

The Reuters piece also stated that Frito Lay is a maker of light food products (can’t remember exact quote).

 

[StealthP3D]

Believe it or not, Im among the minority here who have actually taken steps to mitigate the impact but that doesnt mean I cant call out BS when I see it. I can pack a gun to protect myself but a thief is still a thief. Dont call me self-victimizing when I call a thief, a thief. Im not calling Elon a thief, btw.

Essentially, you are calling Elon a thief every time you act like he has taken something that belongs to you.

 

[Hock1]

The number of demand levers that Tesla has available is just crazy. If, and that's a BIG IF, there was a demand problem in the USA, one thing they could do without changing price would simply be to release the new colors to the USA. I would snap up a Quicksilver or one of those new dark red Model 3's or Y's in a hurry.

I'll be doing the same----waiting for new colors on Model S LR.

 

[JustMe]

Pretty damn cool...
Nice of PepsiCo to do Tesla's advertising for them!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604003678561738753

Edit: Vid was taken at Rancho Cordova, CA. Apparently there were 2 that were sighted.

This is so fracking cool! Good on PepsiCo. I expect some TV commercials touting Zero Emissions in the very near future! I know it's already caused me to switch from Diet Coke to Diet Pepsi and that's a pretty big deal!

It’s interesting to read through the responses to this Pepsi Tesla semi post. Somewhat evenly split between “wow that’s awesome, I’m switching to Pepsi” and “EV’s run on dirty coal power” Nobody arguing fraud or that’s impossible. One anti-Musk response. Seems relatively normal.

 

[Mengy]

I'll be doing the same----waiting for new colors on Model S LR.

I have to imagine new color choices will come to the US in time too. I love my red MY but I must admit if Quicksilver had been available I would have gotten that over red. I think Quicksilver on the Model Y is all kinds of shiny.

 

[FireMedic]

what companies employees are happy right now with their employee based stock compensation... I would argue not many ... so still best spot to work is Tesla

My wife has AMZN and GOOG employee shares and those are feeling as much pain as our TSLA. This is a huge relief to me as she is not a super woke Elon hater and therefore allows me to trim other holding to go TSLA dip buying. She agrees with me that at this point AMZN ATH recovery feels more distant than TSLA's return to ATH.

Either way kids start expensive Bay Area private high school next year combined $50k/ year and were considering using college savings for it; meanwhile her employer is cutting staffing...so the pain could become much worse.

Im really hoping the FED, Elon, Putin and Jeff who can get their *Sugar together for 2023. My kids college fund is riding on it. FWIW my wife and I had college loans and turned out just fine.

Am I doing it wrong? 2022 screaming at me that I am!
Input welcome.

 

[insaneoctane]

So big institutions 44%, public investors like state pensions 41%, individual investors 14,9% of which Elon, Larry and Leo hold the most. Where does that leave us as a collective? Retail is puny, we’re holding just a few crumbs.

Don't these numbers challenge all the MM/hedgies conspiracy theories so commonly shared in this thread? This math implies that ~95% of the shares are not likely to be swayed by emotions... All that to influence <5%? Not saying it's impossible, but it seems lower probability? Other's thoughts appreciated...

 

[30seconds]

It's amazing how close in brain wavelength we are. I was literally posting this in the "thread that shall not be mentioned". Cross posting here:

Regarding concern on having inventory cars:
============================================================
Again, as I pointed out, a better metric is to track how long things sit in inventory. That is still very low. Inventory cars are still selling briskly.

And, as I also said, a natural by-product of unwiding the wave is that you will move from an all on-order system to having some cars in stock. It's not like Tesla has that many different configurations (they are the polar opposite of BMW, for example). 5 colors, 2 interior colors, +/- a 7 seat option. And then most people buy White for their color.

Tesla was missing out on sales because people didn't want to wait (i.e. just had a car accident, need something immediately - those people will not wait months for a car). Having some degree of cars in stock will stoke demand in and of itself.

This. And the new inventory is still very low. For example there are only 4 white / white Model Ys listed in Southern California.

Still would be nice if Tesla wasn't in such a "show me first" mode with investors. Whatever the reason (and I do think having an unfocused CEO is a large part of it) to have a rapidly declining stock price for large, growing, highly profitable company is very frustrating.

I see Q4 deliveries above 440k as a first step to grinding back towards $250 next year. To get above $300 next year I think we are going to need a sentiment change.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Great idea and agreed, but there will have to be some major mods to the Austin paint shop first. They're not just different colors, it's the process in which they're made that give them that iridescent glow.

They could conceivably import some from Giga Berlin I suppose, but that's a lot more cost for small reduction in demand.

Hmmm, how about a European delivery program in the meantime!

 

[30seconds]

My wife has AMZN and GOOG employee shares and those are feeling as much pain as our TSLA. This is a huge relief to me as she is not a super woke Elon hater and therefore allows me to trim other holding to go TSLA dip buying. She agrees with me that at this point AMZN ATH recovery feels more distant than TSLA's return to ATH.

Either way kids start expensive Bay Area private high school next year combined $50k/ year and were considering using college savings for it; meanwhile her employer is cutting staffing...so the pain could become much worse.

Im really hoping the FED, Elon, Putin and Jeff who can get their *Sugar together for 2023. My kids college fund is riding on it. FWIW my wife and I had college loans and turned out just fine.

Am I doing it wrong? 2022 screaming at me that I am!
Input welcome.

I’m sure this is both the wrong place and probably unwelcome but the public high schools in the Bay Area are typically very good.