bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Income below 300k, already bought and took delivery of a CPO instead (so Tesla still made bank).
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Income below 300k, already bought and took delivery of a CPO instead (so Tesla still made bank).
Those cells for energy are lifepo, Tesla took the excess 2170 cells and launched the semi , 100 a week is quite the cell monster. 4680 slowly growing.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
He heavily promotes and vigorously defends those beginning of quarter estimates and yet always says his later adjustments make them no longer relevant. Somehow in his mind the negative impression he presented for the first few weeks of a quarter just disappear when he edits the estimate.
If he picked any of these strategies his position wouldn't be attacked
* don't show early quarter estimates that are inaccurate, wait for that information that comes out mid quarter and post a more accurate first guess
* show early in quarter predictions but invite corrections, and don't defend them like he's the only one that knows what's coming
* somehow be more accurate with early quarter predictions.
You can't have it both ways, if your first prediction is less accurate than the field and you get to a reasonably accurate adjustment later we are going to view you as inaccurate on average.
If you make constant adjustments it's like crying wolf. We'll stop listening after a while. Pick your entry points and adjust when you need to but don't promote every single adjustment.
Im wit
Because he likes dangling a carrot in front of a dirt farmer
Why do you look at his numbers then if you dont trust them? There is no gun to your head, put him on ignore. You’d only be paying attention and caring if you were trying to speculate.
It doesn’t matter if anyone here looks at troys numbers, it’s the masses. He’s the longest running P&D analyzer I can remember. He has “clout” which will be listened to my MSM over anyone else. So his Fuddy duddy outlook is hurting everyone during an already stressed out quarter. Looks like he’s reanalyzing everything again due to another CN incentive.
Time to update your model and tell everyone
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Well, I'm sure the MSM would want to spread good news about Tesla if only there were a source of such information, right?
Those focused, proud investigative journalists are on the cusp of uncovering the facts right this minute. They, each and all, have always gone above and beyond in their due diligence to verify their stories.
This being so, they would fairly report both sides of the story and even offer a sly smile as the Tesla sourced info proved the now embarrassed source wrong.
That is how the news always works, regardless of whether it is telling a story about industry, politics, social injustice, etc.
As these pillars of documentary excellence are graduates of the Walter Cronkite school of fair journalism and would rather quit their job than follow the money by supporting the source of their employer's income.
Ipso facto, it is highly unlikely that FUD could possibly take a higher viewer share than fact as there is no historical evidence in modern news which would suggest, much less support, such dirty, stinking behavior from our proud, balanced news channels.
/S
I guess I just don't mind people making predictions which turn out to be wrong.
Many of us have spreadsheet models for Tesla, many of us make quarterly predictions, yet most of us are wrong in the end. Some are too optimistic and some are too pessimistic, but as an investor I still appreciate hearing everyone's opinions and reasonings. It's my job to parse through the predictions and choose which ones I put faith into.
I enjoy hearing Troy's predictions even though I feel he's often too conservative. I don't take his errors personally, I simply use that knowledge to weigh his future updates.
I suppose I just don't understand the vitriol so many people here have towards Troy.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Tesla Certified Pre-Owned.
Good point. However iPhone is demand limited, so it’s in a different position.
I seem to recall reading that Tesla aims to keep the order book in the 2-4 week range, pulling or removing demand levers as necessary.
@The Accountant - If Tesla energy generates $20-25B in 2023, do you have margin estimate and what might that add in EPS FY 2023
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Just seems that way to me. I find if someone calls it FUD it tends to shut down the discussion.
The appropriate response in this case should be to question the method or the accuracy of of doing this. Calling it FUD to me just makes the statement that someone is being untruthful or trying to twist the facts, which in this case they are not.
And look who's with...Wasnt there a brief discussion about Elon needing a vacation? Looks like he’s having a ball at World Cup.
(He posted, so I’m not doxxing him)
If a brain surgeon has made a mistake, Joe Blow is not entitled to an opinion on the best way to perform the next surgery.
Einstein made a mistake with the Cosmological Constant. That doesn’t entitle just anyone, to have an opinion on his next theory.
After a CEO makes a mistake that doesn’t mean someone else with no qualifications, knows how to run THEIR business better than they do.
Everybody makes mistakes. We are all human. But that does not mean non-experts in the field, have just as valid an opinion as the experts who have made mistakes in that field.
To be more specific.
Tesla becoming demand constrained should not be a concern. But Tesla needing to pull demand levers, because production growth begins outpacing demand growth, is a very valid concern.
Even though they have lots of margin headroom and are rapidly decreasing costs, it would still be preferable if they did not have to pull the demand levers at all.
It also destroys the credibility of the person claiming did when it wasn’t anything more than data they did not like.
Who is the other guy?
Jared Kushner.
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I guess there are two areas of confusion I have.
1) Trying to estimate US inventory by non-systematic anecdotal reporting of duplicate configurations seems like a terrible methodology. It has the appearance of grasping at straws to rationalize increased inventory (and associated, you know * @Krugerrand denied *).
2) As @mongo points out above, so what? The difference between 4.2 or 6.5 production days worth of inventory seems completely inconsequential to me, unless Tesla has run out of parking spaces and has to dump them in the ocean.
But what do I know? Maybe the only way Tesla has to avoid a mountain of unsold cars piling up is to shut down the factory. I tend to believe Tesla when they say they can sell every car they manage to make for the foreseeable future. I would expect things like pricing, domestic/export mix, option mix, etc. would be the knobs first tweaked. Maybe accumulating cars for the next available RoRo. Still can’t see factory shutdown as a result.
we'll see
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