Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

And look who's with...
View attachment 886399

Yes! I recognize him, though he was incognito last time I saw him.

 

[Prunesquallor]

To be more specific.

Tesla becoming demand constrained should not be a concern. But Tesla needing to pull demand levers, because production growth begins outpacing demand growth, is a very valid concern.

Even though they have lots of margin headroom and are rapidly decreasing costs, it would still be preferable if they did not have to pull the demand levers at all.

If the "demand levers" are systematically in the wrong direction over a significant time period, I agree. If they are intermittent, of varying magnitude, I would see them as available knobs to keep the factories at maximum production.

edit: For example, as has been pointed out, MiC MY prices are higher now than at the beginning of the year. So despite increased production, prices have still increased this year. These are the "demand levers" I look for.

 

[NicoV]

The EU introduce a carbon tax on fuels used for heating and transport: EU approves CO2 tax on heating and transport, softened by new social climate fund

“The new carbon price will apply to petrol, diesel and heating fuels such as natural gas whose climate warming emissions have continued to rise over the years despite attempts to decarbonise. “
”The new scheme will entail higher prices at the pump: up to 10.5 cents for a litre of petrol and 12 cents for diesel”

 

[dhanson865]

Why do you look at his numbers then if you dont trust them? There is no gun to your head, put him on ignore. You’d only be paying attention and caring if you were trying to speculate.

I don't go looking for his numbers but people post them here as though they are gospel and it clutters up the thread as you see now. I'd have to put half a dozen people on ignore just for posting his numbers if I took that tactic.

As a matter of fact he has blocked me on twitter so I can't see his numbers there if I try. And I do have him on ignore here, but I haven't put everyone else that posts his numbers on ignore and don't intend to.

I'm replying today as there is a discussion about their worth. But around the beginning of the quarter to first half of a quarter when someone posts them I just mark the post funny and move on without replying (and feel sorry for the person that doesn't realize how inaccurate his early projections are on average).

 

[mongo]

Are you saying Elon sold all shares in his possession, in other words, no sales until next tranche from 2018 CEO compensation plan?

Mind reminding if some will vest end of this quarter?

This likely was discussed here before, Elon transferred 5B+ worth of shares to his foundation. If those were sold this quarter, we won’t know until next quarter. I was suspecting huge volumes in some of the days Elon didn’t sell could be by the foundation. Any thoughts? What are the odds the foundation sold and ultimately the money went to Twitter as investment or something? If it went to Twitter, I guess, we likely would’ve heard?

Elon executed all his 2012 awards (1 of 10 didn't vest (30% GM 4 quarters))
12th 2018 should vest this quarter, none executed.

Gifted stock was in 2021, but filling was not until 2022.
Foundation could sell, but why?

 

[Discoducky]

But Tesla needing to pull demand levers, because production growth begins outpacing demand growth, is a very valid concern.

Is it a valid concern that the sun won't come up in the morning? For the next 10 years?

 

[AndrewZ]

Troy's numbers were posted here as though they were gospel, now it seems they're posted here as though they're heretical

 

[kabin]

There's some recent news stories about increased vehicle repossessions and banks reducing loan standards for new car buyers with substantially negative equity trade ins. They say vehicles and cellphone plans are the last thing anyone would default on or will this be the new normal for jingle mail?

 

[AudubonB]

Elon executed all his 2012 awards (1 of 10 didn't vest (30% GM 4 quarters))
12th 2018 should vest this quarter, none executed.

Gifted stock was in 2021, but filling was not until 2022.
Foundation could sell, but why?

Why: Since the mid- or late 1960s, a charitable foundation must distribute each year five percent of its assets. If Musk Foundation’s assets total $5 billion, but they consist exclusively of TSLA, then 5% of that $5bn - $250 million - can be either as shares - which may or may not be of use to the donee; as a non-dividend-paying stock it is less likely than otherwise - or it must sell those shares so as to distribute cash.

All charitable foundations must have disinterested employees - they MAY have interested ones as well - who must be paid. That is another drawdown of assets - again, shares would need to be sold.

A fraudulent charitable foundation, such as one that was much in the US news in recent years, often is characterized by paying interested employees outsized salaries. I have no belief MF will be following that despicable route.

 

[betstarship]

2 weeks till end of quarter everyone!!!!

 

[Accident]

Thanks, @deerfield. These two appear to be duplicates. When I click on the details, they both show Peabody-North Shore, 210 Andover Street, Peabody, MA 01960. Because this is very rare, my best guess is, when a car is sold, it takes a while for the website to update. There should be duplicates everywhere if they didn't filter them out. It is very hard to find duplicates.

The website shows these two are available for pickup at Peabody, MA, but when looking at the HTML code, it shows they are currently at different location. It might be the reason why the inventory site is showing a duplicate configuration.

 

[Criscmt]

If you want to be taken seriously here I suggest you publish and apologise for what can be seen as FUD - namely your earliest quarterly estimates opposed to your latest.

> If you want to be taken seriously here
By that wording you are implying everyone is agreeing with your view. There are many who don't share your view here.
The wording should be "If you want to be taken seriously many/some of us here"

 

[Criscmt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604486768132136960

 

[Criscmt]

Does @Troy 428K deliveries estimate assume <29k deliveries in China in total for the last 3 weeks?

 

[MP3Mike]

Income below 300k, already bought and took delivery of a CPO instead

No, you didn't, you bought a used Tesla. Tesla doesn't have a CPO program and hasn't for years. (Because their last one didn't comply with CA laws to be called CPO.)

 

[mongo]

Why: Since the mid- or late 1960s, a charitable foundation must distribute each year five percent of its assets. If Musk Foundation’s assets total $5 billion, but they consist exclusively of TSLA, then that 5% of $5bn - $250 million - can be either as shares - which may or may not be of use to the donee; as a non-dividend-paying stock it is less likely than otherwise - or it must sell those shares so as to distribute cash.

All charitable foundations must have disinterested employees - they MAY have interested ones as well - who must be paid. That is another drawdown of assets - again, shares would need to be sold.

A fraudulent charitable foundation, such as one that was much in the US news in recent years, often is characterized by paying interested employees outsized salaries. I have no belief MF will be following that despicable route.

Thanks!

I read that which I replied to as selling all of the shares. Further, why at the bottom of the market, especially with the 13 month average asset basis and the 5% not being a hard "or else" requirement (per my limited Googling).

 

[Stretch2727]

And that's really the jist of all this. Q4 will be a record quarter, that much is obvious by now, BUT the issue of whether or not we'll hit 50% growth in production / deliveries for 2022 is the BIG question. There is a wide range of Q4 delivery possibilities.

I've been saying for some time now how I don't think we'll reach 50% for the year. In my opinion the gap from Q3 to Q4 numbers is just too large to ramp in one quarter's time, and the hit we took in Q2 for the shutdown was just too big a hit for the year.

Now, that doesn't mean it CAN'T happen, I'm just not expecting Tesla to pull that large a rabbit out of its hat. It's a massive jump to expect.

The silver lining is that production has ramped up nicely and we'll be entering 2023 with a nearly 2,000,000 per year production rate, and this will continue to ramp up in 2023 thanks to Berlin and Austin. SO, while I expect 2022 to be a less than 50% year, I also expect 2023 to be a greater than 50% year.

Annual average growth rate of 50% means we'll have some years over 50% and some under 50%. 2022 will just likely be an under year, and that's okay.

The crazy thing is the stock is priced currently well below 50% growth.

If you take the 2022 Q3 Non-GAAP free cash flow of $3.297B, annualize it and use a per share amount equals $4.20 a share . With 25% compound growth over 10 years I get free cash flow of $136.80. Almost the current stock price. This is just 10 years without considering the value and the free cash flow from 2032. I used a 3.5% discounted rate and this is not considering dilution.

At 50% growth 10 year cash flows are $540.31. Ok probably not likely in the out years, but just shows you how far the stock is from its potential.

To me the stock is a screaming buy.

I am going to sell another stock I have a small gain on this year and go in on more shares tomorrow.

 

[Grifon]

There are a lot of very smart people on this forum. But why do so many of think that it’s critical to know exacting sales/delivery numbers? Because if you are trying to use those numbers to determine when to buy and when to sell, you are playing a suckers game.

Tesla is a generational company. They will be around for a long time, Elon or not. Ten years from now, auto sales may only make up a relatively small portion of the total annual revenue.

Everybody relax. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.

 

[Electroman]

Isn't it a bit disingenuous to create a narrative that could easily appear intentionally critical of Tesla missing their 2022 goals that they stated at the end of 2021 without including any additional discussions of the very impactful 2022 shutdowns and subsequent production & delivery disruptions at their Shanghai plant due to forces completely beyond any control of the Tesla team? In 2021 Shanghai was producing 1/2 of Tesla's global deliveries IIRC. And if the narrative is intended to be a fair critique of Tesla's ability to achieve the goals they have publicly stated for 2022 then let's be honest - the 'disruptions' in 2022 stretched well beyond Shanghai for Tesla, and they had no ability to predict those impacts at the time their goals were stated.

While you are showing Tesla's 'record' production, deliveries, and quarters (Q1, Q3, Q4), your narrative (conveniently ?) excludes any discussion or extrapolations for the effects of the Covid shutdowns starting in March which hammered Q2 and created additional challenges for Tesla globally for much of 2022. A more fair and insightful discussion of Tesla's 2022 goals vs. actual IMO would exclude any time on the calendar for any forced shutdowns and reduced operation capacities at any location if it was beyond Tesla's control. You have been doing this long enough to be able to forecast that fairly accurately IMO if you so choose to. And if you did so, then Tesla would have likely achieved and surpassed their 2022 goals. What a headline that would make! But maybe that's not a headline that generated clicks.

Well said. This is the crux of the problem that you can see with MSM and in some of the tweets of Troy too. Ignore the context and externalities to bring a narrative. It is not the numbers it is the narrative.

 

[bkp_duke]

No, you didn't, you bought a used Tesla. Tesla doesn't have a CPO program and hasn't for years. (Because their last one didn't comply with CA laws to be called CPO.)

I didn't.

Someone else bought the car, not our immediately family.