I reply with 'Perhaps'. The largest potential market, the best supply of qualified engineers and skilled workers is probably Brazil with parts of Minas Gerais State the easiest lithium and other elements source locations, and Itajubá is Airbus helicopter, plus Embraer in São José dos Campos, SP plus Mercedes Benz in Rio de Janeiro State. These core locations are quite near each other and all three States are eager to support new foreign investment, especially since most of the political disarray has diminished (obviously, just like the US and most of the rest of the world, the political situations are far less stable than they were a few years ago.
It does make sense to have one of the next GFs in one of these States, not least because the alleged forthcoming Mexican GF can easily cooperate with a Brazilian plant, including production cooperation with, say, Vale, and both Mexico and Brazil having trade agreements with Mercosur. There are, of course, stresses in those relations too.
Overall the combination of Mercosur and Mexico makes a rapid Brazilian investment in the near future almost irresistible. Greatly enhancing that is the desire of the new Federal government to accelerate renewables.
FWIW the clear change in optimism from me is related to both the incoming environmental priorities and the new government desire to mend frayed fences. Not easy, but the combination of Tesla and SpaceX makes the Brazilian aerospace and industrial sector drool.
With the world's largest concentrations of helicopters and turboprop aircraft, plus attractive BEV markets the prospects for labor supply plus raw materials become powerful attractions.
Few people outside Brazil (other than aerospace people) understand the reality.
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The basis of 'perhaps' is that domestic Brazil newspapers, TV news and columnists have suddenly become Musk skeptics. The banning of journalists drove a frenzy that had not previously been evident here. rescinding the ban is not helping at all. Given the topic of this post this is directly relevant to how Tesla and SpaceX will be received in Brazil. This may dissipate soon, although that seems unlikely without a cessation of political commentary from the source.