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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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It’s math.

Tesla pulling the U.S. demand lever of a $3500 /car discount lowers gross U.S. profits by $3500 per car. It would have been preferable not to have needed to pull that demand lever at all, unless your argument is that $3500 less gross profit per car has no effect on the financials?

I know it’s expected they have to lower prices over time as production grows, but it should be obvious to everyone that each pull of a demand lever affects the financials negatively and thus the more infrequently they occur, the better for earnings and the better for the share price.
Yes but it increases the total quantity sold, so that overall revenues and profits increase.

Most large tech stocks are making lows today.
 
I'm on the fence on how this week will go. My sympathy to everyone being squeezed.

But here's what I think I do know:

Jan 1 will see a massive influx of new and re-confirmed orders, mine among them. Stock will rise.
Jan 1 will see a massive influx of new and reconfirmed arguments that Tesla loses money on every car without subsidies. Elon Musk will officially come out the closet as Q-anon, and he will post a poll on the bird app proposing that MLK Day be cancelled as a federal holiday due to its woke origins and and be replaced with a new holiday on Jan 6th to be called Patriots Day. By February, Tesla closes all galleries and service centers in California.

In March, Elon posts another: “Should Tesla and SpaceX relocate headquarters from Texas to Iran to more strongly indicate our unwavering support for oppression of women, ethnic minorities and homosexuals? I will abide by the results of this poll.”

Stock will fall.

Announcement of the new model (2) (in the first half of 2023, possibly during 4Q readout) will see stock rise. This may be imminent, indicated by oddness in the Model 3 order deck. This is not a Robotaxi, it is a "Competition" killer. (OK, this is mostly hopeium)
Announcement of the new model will clearly indicate collapsing demand for the S3XY lineup. Market will see through the desperate attempt at pumping up the TSLA price. Stock will fall.

Cybertrucks on the streets will see stock rise. I think there will be strong initial production problems due to the unique production process, but not as slow to correct as apparent 4680 ramp issues.
Cybertruck owners will be humiliated and ridiculed everywhere they go for driving such a stupid and ugly truck that can’t even roll coal or tow a boat more than 69 miles. Those remaining few owners who don’t shamefully hide it in their garages to admire in private will quickly rack up manslaughter charges for mowing down pedestrians with the sharp edges. After a lengthy series of departmental meetings discussing proposed regulatory changes, the NHTSA finally writes new rules making the Cybertruck illegal sometime around next December. Americans rejoice that the triangular menace is off the streets and question why an armored personnel carrier on wheels was ever allowed in the first place. Canadians politely repress their urge to tell us “We told you so”, as is tradition.

Unable to pay the bills anymore, Tesla forecloses on Giga Texas and GM buys it off auction, announcing a bold plan to lead the way by producing dozens of Made-in-Texas electric Silverados there annually by 2025, with headlights proudly installed by union labor in Michigan.

Stock will fall.

Throughout the year, Quarterly financials will be so good, stock will rise (I know, I know, been there with you and seen that)
Throughout the year, quarterly financials will be so good that the market finally catches on to the fraud Tesla is brazenly committing in broad daylight. Stock will fall; Jim Chanos and David Einhorn will finally be billionaires again.

And they all lived happily ever after. Except TSLA bag holders. The end.
 
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only 10days to P/D, 10 days to updated forward and trailing 12M earnings. Financial performance and growth shown more clearly. Only so far a PT can go before sounding ludicrous. Right? Right?
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Why do I get a feeling that soon TSLA will get a bunch of downgrades from others, further dropping TSLA share price (and further destroying our retirement futures)?
price targets were silly and irrelevant on the way up, and likewise on the way down.

Its just noise. Remember, If we followed upgrades/downgrades it is likely none of us would have even invested in the first place.
 
Elon listened to the share holders when the 420 funding secured happened. Those that believed in him petitioned hard against the going private. They did not want to get forced out of the stock.

Quite a few long time supporters who were believers and invested from the very beginning are now retired and depend on their TSLA portfolio as the main source of retirement income. Like Elon, many use this wealth to fund projects and initiatives that do good to the world.

They are hurting and may be forced out of the stock. A nail biter, every morning nervously looking what the stock will be doing that day and wonder what part of their plans they may have to put on hold or scrap—it’s not the kind of retirement they had in mind.

I hope he remembers his early supporters.

I got in during the plateau from 2016-19. Not an early supporter, but earlier than some. I'm up close to 10x on those buys. If someone had asked me if I'd be happy with 10x in 5 years on that investment I'd have said yes, enthusiastically.

Being down from the highs a year ago is a bit of a bummer, never "lost" millions before; but I still can't complain about my returns. Still have faith in the future of Tesla, will have to wait a bit longer for TSLA to catch back up, but am certain it will. Not the time to be cashing in (*any*) stocks, hence the wisdom of having at least 2 years of cash to live on in retirement.

The true early investors are up a lot more than me, they should be fine unless they gambled (options/margin) or forgot that the market goes through dips from time to time, and failed to plan accordingly.

When in doubt, zoom out.
 
I am listening to a Twitter space call and some guy is saying that Tesla is going to have a huge earnings hit because of the $3500 discount in December and that we will probably miss earnings. Has anyone done the math on that?
From the Quarterly Results Forum.

I am expecting gross profit per car (S3XY) to increase to $14.6k in Q4.
This is based on @Troy 's 428k deliveries (with slight mix adjustment to increase China)
I will update this periodically with new delivery estimates and as exchange rates change.

View attachment 884906

Higher mix of Model Y and S&X Plaids along with higher sales in Europe (where ASP is higher) help to partially offset the ASP decline due to China price cuts and foreign exchange.

View attachment 884907

Cost per vehicle should decline due to a higher % of production at Shanghai, Berlin and Austin ramp efficiencies and the strong USD vs Yuan & Yen.

View attachment 884908

Did you consider the $3750 discount being offered in the US in December on Model Y and 3?

yes I did.
 
I am listening to a Twitter space call and some guy is saying that Tesla is going to have a huge earnings hit because of the $3500 discount in December and that we will probably miss earnings. Has anyone done the math on that?
I think certainly earnings will be affected but its only 1 month of the 3 month period so roughly 30-40% of sales. Also, their efficiency is likely increasing with Berlin and Austin which will help mitigate the effect on margins. They should also recognize some FSD revenue due to wide release of Beta which will also help. I think Tesla is doing the right thing. Honestly, this quarter's earnings matter to WallStreet but otherwise it does not matter whether they make money. Its much more important that they price low enough to suffocate the competition like Mercedes, BMW, Audi and others in typical Silicon Valley fashion. They can worry about margins when the European auto makers are dead. What do others think?
 
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I got in during the plateau from 2016-19. Not an early supporter, but earlier than some. I'm up close to 10x on those buys. If someone had asked me if I'd be happy with 10x in 5 years on that investment I'd have said yes, enthusiastically.

Being down from the highs a year ago is a bit of a bummer, never "lost" millions before; but I still can't complain about my returns. Still have faith in the future of Tesla, will have to wait a bit longer for TSLA to catch back up, but am certain it will. Not the time to be cashing in (*any*) stocks, hence the wisdom of having at least 2 years of cash to live on in retirement.

The true early investors are up a lot more than me, they should be fine unless they gambled (options/margin) or forgot that the market goes through dips from time to time, and failed to plan accordingly.

When in doubt, zoom out.
I’m willing to bet the loudest detractors from TSLA are shorts, competitors, non shareholders who used to align ideologically, shareholders playing with money they don’t have (margin)