Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Gigapress]

Has no relevance. It doesn't matter if you owe tax at the end of the year or not. (Only your total tax liability for the year matters.)



Nope. You can adjust your withholdings to start "reaping the rewards" at any time during the year. (Or if you don't have a job and live off of capital gains, you can reduce your estimated tax payments.)

Even more importantly, the IRA appears to allow the eligible taxpayer to transfer their clean vehicle credit to the dealer that sells them the car so as to get the benefit immediately at the time of sale via a direct payment from the dealer. In this way the IRA basically converted a tax credit into a direct subsidy.

The main question I'd have is whether the term "dealer which sold such vehicle to the taxpayer" would somehow not apply to Tesla on a technicality because they do online ordering and in many states have been arguing in court that they don't have dealerships.

Key excerpts:

...

I'm not a lawyer or tax professional. This is not advice.

Edit: Not until 2024 though, see posts below.

 

[tslalala]

Not sure if this is OT or related but it is curious to me that E.M. was at the World Cup final in Qatar...

Not one to waste the time (in the air) or during the game usually that is unless he is over there already for something.....

What would that something be? Possibly getting equity investors signed up from Sovereign Wealth Funds and High Net worth individuals?

I would be willing to bet (not really) that the trip to the middle east was a trip that was for business but just happened to coincide with the final game for some down time.

Lot's of wealthy people travelled there to the game and we already saw E.M. talking with the President of Turkey, would be very surprised if there wasn't more going on.

Thoughts?

I'm really hoping did a "two-fer": that he got some R&R (including actual sleep) and is responding/negotiating in person with various folks who are secretly begging Elon to build a Tesla factory in the Middle East and they'll be willing to fully fund this venture. (A boy can still dream, right?)

 

[MXWing]

So a new Gigafactory announcement by the end of the year, just like Elon predicted in August. I thought he never kept his promises, or so I was told.

Comeon. Some promises easier than others to keep:

1.) Announce a new factory. EASY

2.) Twitter benefit TSLA Shareholders. Uhhhh. That's a worse promise than "just the tip".

 

[2daMoon]

The real overhang is the perceived brand damage. Will take time for that to shake out.

I don't see any support for the "brand damage" hypothesis, beyond the attempts of the highly vocal who make up a very small percentage of all the Tesla and TSLA buyers.

Just because it is part of the FUD buffet doesn't mean a significant number of people who are considering buying are being influenced.

 

[AndrewZ]

Also assumes no price increases triggered by more demand due to subsidy.

I personally don't believe price increases are happening.

The IRA acronym is thrown around a lot, but using the acronym kinda makes it easier to lose sight of this being the Inflation Reduction Act. This legislation is not intended to blow up demand and destroy the work being done by central banks in terms of balancing that demand with available supply, and higher auto prices as a result will either increase the Auto component of inflation metrics and give the Fed more ammunition to be hawkish or will serve to further entrench increases that have already occurred (if prices increase but are offset by credits) rather than unwind them thus likely resulting in higher rates for longer.

We can't declare victory over inflation until prices come down and stabilize and that includes autos, with houses and cars being two of the most rate-sensitive assets

Even more importantly, the IRA appears to allow the eligible taxpayer to transfer their clean vehicle credit to the dealer that sells them the car so as to get the benefit immediately at the time of sale via a direct payment from the dealer. In this way the IRA basically converted a tax credit into a direct subsidy.

The main question I'd have is whether the term "dealer which sold such vehicle to the taxpayer" would somehow not apply to Tesla on a technicality because they do online ordering and in many states have been arguing in court that they don't have dealerships.

Key excerpts:

View attachment 886778
...
View attachment 886781

I'm not a lawyer or tax professional. This is not advice.

I would need to find the exact lines in the text, but my understanding is the credit does not become a point-of-sale discount until Jan 1 2024

 

[tslalala]

Even more importantly, the IRA appears to allow the eligible taxpayer to transfer their clean vehicle credit to the dealer that sells them the car so as to get the benefit immediately at the time of sale via a direct payment from the dealer. In this way the IRA basically converted a tax credit into a direct subsidy.

The main question I'd have is whether the term "dealer which sold such vehicle to the taxpayer" would somehow not apply to Tesla on a technicality because they do online ordering and in many states have been arguing in court that they don't have dealerships.

Key excerpts:

View attachment 886778
...
View attachment 886781

I'm not a lawyer or tax professional. This is not advice.

After all the Blue Bird mess, shouldn't Elon now have access to political help to remove all the state "dealership" roadblocks to Tesla's direct selling model?

 

[MP3Mike]

Even more importantly, the IRA appears to allow the eligible taxpayer to transfer their clean vehicle credit to the dealer that sells them the car so as to get the benefit immediately at the time of sale via a direct payment from the dealer. In this way the IRA basically converted a tax credit into a direct subsidy.

1. That doesn't start until 2024.
2. You still have to qualify for it to transfer it. (So if you end up not qualifying for it at the end of the year, it gets added to your tax liability.)

But yeah, starting in 2024, you don't have to mess with adjusting withholdings/etc. to reap the tax credit.

 

[mongo]

Even more importantly, the IRA appears to allow the eligible taxpayer to transfer their clean vehicle credit to the dealer that sells them the car so as to get the benefit immediately at the time of sale via a direct payment from the dealer. In this way the IRA basically converted a tax credit into a direct subsidy.

The main question I'd have is whether the term "dealer which sold such vehicle to the taxpayer" would somehow not apply to Tesla on a technicality because they do online ordering and in many states have been arguing in court that they don't have dealerships.

Key excerpts:

View attachment 886778
...
View attachment 886781

I'm not a lawyer or tax professional. This is not advice.

1. That doesn't start until 2024.
2. You still have to qualify for it to transfer it. (So if you end up not qualifying for it at the end of the year, it gets added to your tax liability.)

But yeah, starting in 2024, you don't have to mess with adjusting withholdings/etc. to reap the tax credit.

This (ninja)

Spoiler: references

Not till 2024

(4) TRANSFER OF CREDIT.—The amendments made by subsection (g) shall apply to vehicles placed in service after December 31, 2023.

Still have clawback if not eligible (so a credit)

‘‘(10) RECAPTURE.—In the case of any taxpayer who has made an election described in paragraph (1) with respect to a new clean vehicle and received a payment described in paragraph (2)(C) from an eligible entity, if the credit under subsection (a) would otherwise (but for this subsection) not be allowable to such taxpayer pursuant to the application of subsection (f)(10), the tax imposed on such taxpayer under this chapter for the taxable year in which such vehicle was placed in service shall be increased by the amount of the payment received by such taxpayer.’’.

Reducing one's withholding allows recognition sooner

 

[ThisStockGood]

Oh wow, I love my S, but would love the better body quality this would undoubtable bring. Germanic panel alignment and gaps and better paintwork in new exotic colours!!. One can only dream...

Wait and see… I assume Tesla Berlin will offer a “no-panel gap retrofit kit for 2012-2021 Model S

 

[wtlloyd]

I'm on the fence on how this week will go. My sympathy to everyone being squeezed.

But here's what I think I do know:

Jan 1 will see a massive influx of new and re-confirmed orders, mine among them. Stock will rise.

Announcement of the new model (2) (in the first half of 2023, possibly during 4Q readout) will see stock rise. This may be imminent, indicated by oddness in the Model 3 order deck. This is not a Robotaxi, it is a "Competition" killer. (OK, this is mostly hopeium)

Cybertrucks on the streets will see stock rise. I think there will be strong initial production problems due to the unique production process, but not as slow to correct as apparent 4680 ramp issues.

Throughout the year, Quarterly financials will be so good, stock will rise (I know, I know, been there with you and seen that)

It will be a GOOD year. (Really wanted to link a clip of TZ original series 'It's a Good Life' , but there's kinda some uncomfortable parallels, when you think about it).

 

[ZsoZso]

Sweet! If $150 is not the bottom then I don’t know anything anymore. Elon blinked and bottom is in.

that did not age well...

 

[2daMoon]

Oh, I guess you might not have Google:
battery-energy-storage
No desire to be snarky. GE has been in battery storage for a long, long time.
I installed some GE batteries in a solar deployment back in 1990, at that time their batteries were truly industrial scale lead acid. They and AT&T both produce gigantic lead acid cells used mostly in remote telecomm sites. I bought the batteries used. They still operate.

Full circle view, GE's existence is tied directly to Nikola Tesla signing over some patents to them when they were struggling. So, yeah, energy production and storage has been a big part of their business since the beginning.

 

[SOULPEDL]

A quick thought re Mexico. Assuming it's for Semi, that makes a lot of sense considering it's a labor intensive product. A 100 Pepsi trucks is a large order in $$$, so any high volume production of Semi that takes advantage of any scaling is a little ways off. Plus, from my experience, money talks in Mexico to cut through any red tape. And guess who knows how to do construction really well. They've been all practicing here in Az for the past few decades. Myself, I welcome Jose to the club. Who knows, maybe even improves immigration situations long term.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Wait and see… I assume Tesla Berlin will offer a “no-panel gap retrofit kit for 2012-2021 Model S

What would you pay for Tesla to rebuild/refresh your car along with a renewed warranty?

Serious question.

 

[JRP3]

that did not age well...

Like most of his predictions from years past...he never learns.

 

[ThisStockGood]

What would you pay for Tesla to rebuild/refresh your car along with a renewed warranty?

Serious question.

$ 22,000

 

[ElectricIAC]

$ 22,000

That seems like a fair number.

 

[kbM3]

Is it a valid concern that the sun won't come up in the morning? For the next 10 years?

It’s math.

Tesla pulling the U.S. demand lever of a $3500 /car discount lowers gross U.S. profits by $3500 per car. It would have been preferable not to have needed to pull that demand lever at all, unless your argument is that $3500 less gross profit per car has no effect on the financials?

I know it’s expected they have to lower prices over time as production grows, but it should be obvious to everyone that each pull of a demand lever affects the financials negatively and thus the more infrequently they occur, the better for earnings and the better for the share price.

 

[elasalle]

Guys, I think the Nuevo Leon 'rumor' about GigaMexico was more than just a rumor...

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is there a link for this?

 

[ElectricIAC]

It’s math.

Tesla pulling the U.S. demand lever of a $3500 /car discount lowers gross U.S. profits by $3500 per car. It would have been preferable not to have needed to pull that demand lever at all, unless your argument is that $3500 less gross profit per car has no effect on the financials?

I know it’s expected they have to lower prices over time as production grows, but it should be obvious to everyone that each pull of a demand lever affects the financials negatively and thus the more infrequently they occur, the better for earnings and the better for the share price.

$3,750.