Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Was just about to post that. There's no way it could be true....but I sure wish it was

Sure it could be. 4 wks production time is 88K of capacity. That leaves only 12K extra to come from inventory, so quite feasible. Then there's 31 day in Dec....

'course, this is CPCA sales, which includes wholesale (meaning the car made it to the docks). What the split will be, who knows. But we do know that every car built will be sold, whether in China, Europe, Aus/NZ, Singapore, or now even in Thailand (estimates of 30K orders in Thailand alone for Q1 23)

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Well...the color was short lived. Back to the color we are used to

 

[EVWatcher]

Why is this irresponsible? Elon said his best guess is a recession in 2023 similar to 2009, and Tesla would likely prioritize growth even if profits were zero or slightly negative.

Although someone can argue that he's making the best of a bad situation, he just said that profits are likely to be much lower in 2023.

Although Uber bulls can argue that the long term 2024/2025 view is unchanged, most investors care about 2023.

Sustaining growth > maintaining profits in a short term credit crunch.

If you can double the size of the pie buy lose most of your margin for 1 year or not grow the pie but maintain profits I’d much rather grow the pie while the competition is struggling to keep the doors open

 

[dl003]

I think there's a sweet-spot above which more money doesn't change happiness, but having financial independence sure as hell facilitates life

That being said, I never had two pennies to rub together until I invested in TSLA, it made me richer that I could ever had imagined, and as stressed as I've ever been in my whole life. Having a little nest-egg back in 2016-2019 was fun, for it then to 50x at one point, and now fall to 20x, it's a hard game, requires some metallic testicles to get through it

I think there's a also a bit of distinction between us and the employees. We make the conscious choice to invest in TSLA while stock options are part of their compensation package at TSLA. They think if they do a good job pushing the company forward, they'll participate in the stock price appreciation. When reality turns out to be a lot less rosy than they thought, it's understandable some of them are feeling disappointed.

 

[2daMoon]

The volume may exceed the daily average before the first couple of hours is up.

Those synthetic shorts sure do add up quick, don't they?

Filthy bastiges with an unlimited supply of imaginary shares. Looking forward to when it is time to pay the piper for this song and dance routine.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well...the color was short lived. Back to the color we are used to

You guys aren't watching the intraday PUT options volume. That's the story today.

 

[Usain]

This is why he was in provocative mode 2 days ago:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605963515402932237

that sounds like "you know nuthin".
Fasten Your seatbelts, he counters with facts.

Tesla's EV market share in the US could easily grow for the next couple of years. With a $7500 discount, demand for EVs will go up and up and up. The competition simply can't produce very many yet. Tesla's production capacity will grow a lot faster than the rest. Therefore, Tesla's EV market share goes up.

 

[dl003]

option market is buying 120P exp this week and the next, 140C for the P&D week -> week before ER, and 100P for week of ER.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You guys aren't watching the intraday PUT options volume. That's the story today.

The 120 put activity is just insane today

 

[vikings123]

Rumor, but nice if true

https://twitter.com/x/status/1606306887837749248

Fleet sales?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

option market is buying 120P exp this week and the next, 140C for the P&D week -> week before ER, and 100P for week of ER.

Pretty much expecting a bounce next week and then a drop after. But man if those China Dec numbers are true…

Given how cheap TSLA is on so many metrics today, Q4 P/D and earnings could be the ultimate showdown between Tesla’s execution and Wall St hedge funds. Given those strike dates of the Puts, hedge funds seem very confident they’ll be able to drop the stock. If Tesla does something like 475k deliveries and then EPS of $1.5-1.8…we’ll see who wins

 

[SOULPEDL]

The volume may exceed the daily average before the first hour is up.

Those synthetic shorts sure do add up quick, don't they?

Filthy bastiges with an unlimited supply of imaginary shares. Looking forward to when it is time to pay the piper for this song and dance routine.

Something Elon mentioned on the call yesterday was unless something happens, the shorts will have their day (to that effect). I don't recall his exact words and it's an obvious fact, but throwing it in left some hope of a New Years surprise - for me anyway.

 

[elasalle]

Fleet sales?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1606309184093319168

I'm in China OK, I can't say the source

We should see spike in next Tue insurance data, if this is the case ...
+ and Monday is a holiday

 

[lafrisbee]

The SP assures me TMC is an ant farm

 

[Ogre]

That's Elon's aspirational estimate. The self-proclaimed lithium expert who asked the question said 7 years was typical.

Auto factories popping up in ~18 months and producing 3000 cars a month isn’t typical either.

Truth will likely land somewhere between.

 

[Nocturnal]

US 3/Y inventories seem to be dropping quickly. As expected.

Around 60 3s and 150 Ys showing. Good portion are demos.

 

[Gigapress]

One more thing while I'm on pause since it's time-sensitive. I propose we collect crowdsourced casual quarterly estimates for Q4 prior to production and deliveries numbers are released and after too in order to see how close we can get before having that info.

Here's the spreadsheet:

TeslaMotorsClub Investor Casual Quarterly Estimates Compilation

Q3 '22 TMC Quarterly Estimates - 2022 Q3,. .,Summary Statistics <a href="https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/7122581/">Gigapress' post in TMC</a> TMC Username,Revenue,Auto Gross Margin Excl ZEV Creds,GAAP Earnings per Share,Non-GAAP Earnings per Share,Comment,Revenue,Auto Gross Margin Excl ZEV...

docs.google.com

 

[bkp_duke]

Am I the only person that didn't expect the wave to end one quarter after announcement?

 

[bigsmooth125]

Am I the only person that didn't expect the wave to end one quarter after announcement?

Which time?

Tesla’s Elon Musk calls for an end to TSLA’s end-of-quarter vehicle delivery blitzes

Over the years, it has practically become a tradition for Tesla to engage in a massive “end-of-quarter push” that involves the company working double time in an effort to deliver as many vehicles to as many customers as possible. This, at least according to CEO Elon Musk, must change, as Tesla...

www.teslarati.com

Tesla revamps EV production schedule to ease logistics strains in its delivery network, Elon Musk says

The EV maker is transitioning to a more evenly spread schedule throughout the quarter to avoid logistics capacity strains.

www.utilitydive.com

 

[bkp_duke]

Which time?

Tesla’s Elon Musk calls for an end to TSLA’s end-of-quarter vehicle delivery blitzes

Over the years, it has practically become a tradition for Tesla to engage in a massive “end-of-quarter push” that involves the company working double time in an effort to deliver as many vehicles to as many customers as possible. This, at least according to CEO Elon Musk, must change, as Tesla...

www.teslarati.com

Tesla revamps EV production schedule to ease logistics strains in its delivery network, Elon Musk says

The EV maker is transitioning to a more evenly spread schedule throughout the quarter to avoid logistics capacity strains.

www.utilitydive.com

All