Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

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Very nice!

Now can you give us the real version? You know, the one with arrows pointing out where COVID happened, the beginning and end of chip shortages and demand problems due to economic pressures, rising costs of car loan interest rates and Elon running his mouth on Twitter happened?

We've all heard about the massive demand destruction, but you chose to give us a chart that shows what might have been, as if demand hasn't been cratering.

You gave us the Tesla cheerleader chart, not the one grounded in real things like fear, uncertainty and doubt.

 

[heltok]

Let's call it for what is was: a big miss on deliveries. Still pretty decent results for a difficult year.

Deliveries
2012: 2.7K
2013: 22.5K (+733.3%)
2014: 31.7K (+40.9%)
2015: 50.6K (+59.6%)
2016: 76.2K (+50.6%)
2017: 101.3K (+32.9%)
2018: 245.2K (+142.1%)
2019: 367.5K (+49.9%)
2020: 499.6K (+36%)
2021: 936.2K (+87.4%)
2022: 1.31 Million (+39.9%)

Imo what matters is not so much the results in a noisy world, what matters is what kind of company Tesla is. The same thing that got them from 2012 to 2022 will be the same thing that takes them from 2022 to 2030 unless something has changed. So what have we learned about Tesla this year?

It was a very challenging year and they didn't crumble, in fact they kept a pretty decent pace. That indicates that they handle difficult times well. They made money while growing, paid of debts, did long term investments(dojo, cathode, lithium refinery), new product development(bot) etc, imo that's pretty damn solid.

They were too optimistic about FSD timeline again, maybe they are just too optimistic about FSD, optimus etc. So maybe we should move those timelines forward in our estimates. Still they made solid gains and got real products into real customers hand. They stepped into the ring and let the audience see their weaknesses. That cannot be said for the competition who just showed some clips of them practicing. They get real useful feedback about their weaknesses and they iterate quick. This seems like a good fighter to bet on. Like you should bet on the lion over a gorilla or a bear in fight.

How is competition doing? Except for BYD, some startups and some low cost brands pretty much everyone is struggling and they are nowhere near Tesla's growth. Some even see large declines. A pattern that will likely repeat a few more times until something changes.

Growth for 2023 should be a solid ~50% also, while they will have to work on preparing that ~50% for 2024 and 2025. They have done this many times before, they know how to do this so it shouldn't be to hard for them...

So overall I see 2022 confirming Tesla's trajectory and very little to indicate that something has changed.

 

[Hock1]

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He educated his folks well before turning around this year...

He, and you, got lucky. I wouldn't count on that strategy in the future.

 

[MC3OZ]

Very much agree with this. Tesla has repeatedly communicated that they would push unit volume even at the expense of margins in the past, and I do not know to what degree they could have pushed additional demand in 2022 Q4 via even deeper incentives / announcing incentives earlier in the quarter, etc,

If we are being critical then perhaps some of the incentives should have come earlier.

It seems that when the US incentives finally arrived, they did a good job of reducing most inventory, so the timing might have been right.

Incentives were offered in China earlier, and logistics probably limited what cars could be shipped from China to other markets.

We don't have all of the relevant data, so it is hard to judge how well Tesla has performed, Elon did seem happy with execution.

For Model S/X there wasn't a major end of quarter push, but in some markets like Australia it has been a long time since any Model S/X have been available. it may be more optimal to retain more US inventory and export more cars.

Anywhere where Tesla are exporting Model 3/Y only is a potential future market for a small volume of Model S/X, but the logistics of servicing the cars needs to be considered.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

No bro, he said there's no confirmation bias here....lol.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610039638290477056

It's not confirmation bias, it's being emotionally compromised.
This eight year old Ted Talk video is a good reference:

 

[Ogre]

We always want him to have vision, because not many non-founder CEOs do. But we also want him to have perspective, which many non-founder CEOs do, and its dreadfully dull but placates the people who manipulate the market.

Whatever you were trying to get at, I don’t think “Perspective” is the right word here because it’s more or less a nonsense sentence. You seem to think “Perspective” means “Knowing when the STFU”… but that’s not what it means. Maybe “Perceptive” is what you were thinking?

Whatever you are trying to get at, Musk will do just fine getting Tesla to $4T leading it exactly how he has been. Maybe it won’t be as boring as some people would like, but we’ll get there.

 

[Singuy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610017600737533954

Decent estimate of inventory split that was being discussed up thread

Damn 25k unsold model Y/3 in China but still requires 1-4 weeks to take deliveries. You guys sure we want Tom to be head of sales in the US?

 

[dl003]

I don’t know if I “Laughed” at that post, but it is ridiculous. Musk will almost certainly be on the year end call. There is a significant chance he will bring up Optimus.

You’d prefer a CEO who is most worried about engineering the books so next quarter’s results look good?

Musk makes long term plans. It’s what’s gotten Tesla to the place it is today.

I don’t understand people who want a CEO who thinks in the short term.

We do want a visionary CEO, without questions. However, theres a time and a place for everything. An ER call shouldnt be your best chance to make bold claims such as the company is pivoting from its money making business and is not currently working on any new product. Life with Elon is already a box of chocolate. We just want one boring day when everyone is already on edge. Please.

 

[fiveten]

Eh, I bet everyone feels a bit offended when they have a post deleted, but I just had one deleted for being a “selfish post” so I’m done posting on here. I don’t think to many people care, but just wanted it to be let known, I’ll still read, but I’m done trying to contribute unless I get some kind of acknowledgment from the mods (I feel like I’ve been a good contributor..but who knows maybe I’m just noise)

 

[InTheMiddle]

Damn 25k unsold model Y/3 in China but still requires 1-4 weeks to take deliveries. You guys sure we want Tom to be head of sales in the US?

Even if that 25k unsold inventory / product in transit is approximately accurate, there are still open questions about the configuration mix (most notably RHD vs LHD), if that build-up is already lined up to be shipped out in the first week of 2023 Q1, etc, so it's hard to know whether that is good decision-making or poor decision-making to have the situation described. It certainly warrants consideration as to what exactly the situation is and most importantly, why. I would be hesitant to have Tom Zhu as the head of US sales, service, and delivery (as recently rumored), and would be directly against him stepping into an even higher role.

 

[StealthP3D]

On a serious note, Toyota Corolla/Honda Civic/Nissan Sentra won't be the direct competitor with the Next Gen Tesla Compact because they are falls too far behind (Upcoming Chinese car wave)

Cars like BYD ATTO 3 would be serious competitor if they ever made it to North America. Imagine their car attempting to flood the market / minimum gross margin (barely breakeven probably)? Hells yeah built in TikTok (If still not being banned)?

Tesla needs to get their plan out with Giga Mexico (Adding another line in Texas/Shanghai) fast just to prepare for this upcoming wave

BYD ATTO 3: Expressive and dynamic C-SUV | BYD Europe

BYD ATTO 3 is equipped with the all-new BYD e-Platform 3.0 designed exclusively for pure electric vehicles,Giving full play to the advantages of intelligence,efficiency, safety and aesthetics.

www.byd.com

Even Chinese EV manufacturers don't have the volume of manufacturing capability and cost structure to be able to import enough quality EV's to flood the N. American market, not in the next two years and probably not in the following two years.

Since you think the BYD ATTO 3 would be a serious competitor in N. America, I have three important questions for you:

1) What do you think the longest-range version would rate on the EPA combined drive cycle range test?
2) How low could BYD price that version in the U.S. market and still break-even after building to US safety standards and covering import costs and duties?
3) What would BYD do for sales, distribution and servicing network and how long do you think it would take to establish these networks sufficiently to "flood the market" here?

Best guesses are good enough. I'm unable to see the same threat you see but maybe you can help me out here.

 

[TrendTrader007]

No bro, he said there's no confirmation bias here....lol.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610039638290477056

well, unlike Tesla Economist, i do have a confirmation bias. i want TSLA to go up.
(but, then again, i have had this confirmation bias since January 2014)

 

[Singuy]

Even if that 25k unsold inventory / product in transit is approximately accurate, there are still open questions about the configuration mix (most notably RHD vs LHD), if that build-up is already lined up to be shipped out in the first week of 2023 Q1, etc, so it's hard to know whether that is good decision-making or poor decision-making to have the situation described. It certainly warrants consideration as to what exactly the situation is and most importantly, why. I would be hesitant to have Tom Zhu as the head of US sales, service, and delivery (as recently rumored), and would be directly against him stepping into an even higher role.

Troy is labeling those 25k cars as cars sitting on lots, not in transit. There are 41 service stations in China. So each location has 610 Teslas sitting on lots. So I guess it must take 4 weeks to do the paper work or something because there are plenty to choose from. In fact I don't even know how they even store that many cars.

 

[jerry33]

Interesting perspective. I hadn’t thought of it that way. So you think Elon/Tesla do not consider Tesla robotaxi, Semi, and $25k compact car as “new products?”

Tesla is not like other companies. New products for Tesla are Insurance, powerwalls/megapacks, solar/solar-roof, Superchargers, optimus, etc.

 

[StealthP3D]

A little educational advertising by Tesla could help to ensure that demand accelerates, both for now and for years to come. An enlightening Super Bowl ad might be a pleasant surprise.

No, one expensive Superbowl ad doesn't do that. Have you looked at legacy auto's sales and financials in the last several years? It would be a negligent use of corporate funds and would damage the brand more than it would help it. The last thing Tesla wants to do is to appear to be more like legacy auto in the eyes of consumers. The last thing they want to be seen doing is spending millions of dollars during a Superbowl. Bad optics.

I can scarcely believe people are still suggesting this. The consumer landscape has changed dramatically in the last 50 years, things don't work how they used to.

 

[Etna]

Interesting observation on posts from my LinkedIn contacts at Tesla for the past few days. There is a wave of incredibly upbeat and even emotional posts from insiders that remind me the uber-bullish mood I shared last time in October 2019 in this thread just prior to the amazing TSLA runup. Of course they are not sharing anything, but they must know something is up.

 

[MC3OZ]

Even Chinese EV manufacturers don't have the volume of manufacturing capability and cost structure to be able to import enough quality EV's to flood the N. American market, not in the next two years and probably not in the following two years.

Since you think the BYD ATTO 3 would be a serious competitor in N. America, I have three important questions for you:

1) What do you think the longest-range version would rate on the EPA combined drive cycle range test?
2) How low could BYD price that version in the U.S. market and still break-even after building to US safety standards and covering import costs and duties?
3) What would BYD do for sales, distribution and servicing network and how long do you think it would take to establish these networks sufficiently to "flood the market" here?

Best guesses are good enough. I'm unable to see the same threat you see but maybe you can help me out here.

BYD are planning to build their own fleet RORO ships, that tells me they are planning to make most of the cars in China.

Even with an adequate fleet of ships, shipping and import logistics are a potential bottleneck.

They will not qualify for IRA subsidies, eventually significant import duties on Chinese cars are possible.

There is space for Chinese EVs at the bottom of the market while Tesla doesn't have cheaper models, but when Tesla has cheaper models, the competition is more intense.

By the time BYD can scale up and enter the US market in volume, Tesla will probably have Gen3 cars.

Japanese entry level ICE cars have the most to fear from cheaper Chinese EVs. People shopping for a budget car in the US may not care if they buy Chinese or Japanese. But if a US car is available for around the same price, many will prefer it.

 

[Cattledog]

Whatever you were trying to get at, I don’t think “Perspective” is the right word here because it’s more or less a nonsense sentence. You seem to think “Perspective” means “Knowing when the STFU”… but that’s not what it means. Maybe “Perceptive” is what you were thinking?

Whatever you are trying to get at, Musk will do just fine getting Tesla to $4T leading it exactly how he has been. Maybe it won’t be as boring as some people would like, but we’ll get there.

No, perspective is what I meant. Perceptive is good too. When I am saying I want Elon to have perspective, I am saying I want him to see what others will read into what he says, and understand the impact of those statements. He has had that at most times in the past and I'd like him to have it in the future. Perspective, perceptive, whatever. I've owned TSLA since 2011 and a Tesla since 2012 (I have F00014 of the Model S), so I have that perspective, which makes me somewhat perceptive (I think).

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Eh, I bet everyone feels a bit offended when they have a post deleted, but I just had one deleted for being a “selfish post” so I’m done posting on here. I don’t think to many people care, but just wanted it to be let known, I’ll still read, but I’m done trying to contribute unless I get some kind of acknowledgment from the mods (I feel like I’ve been a good contributor..but who knows maybe I’m just noise)

I generally expect my posts to get deleted (including my last one) so I'm never disappointed. Except for that time one of my posts got lumped in with a bunch of others being childish, for a change.

 

[thesmokingman]

No, one expensive Superbowl ad doesn't do that. Have you looked at legacy auto's sales and financials in the last several years? It would be a negligent use of corporate funds and would damage the brand more than it would help it. The last thing Tesla wants to do is to appear to be more like legacy auto in the eyes of consumers. The last thing they want to be seen doing is spending millions of dollars during a Superbowl. Bad optics.

I can scarcely believe people are still suggesting this. The consumer landscape has changed dramatically in the last 50 years, things don't work how they used to.

I concur but yall don't know about the Superbowl Effect?

Essentially every time any brand advertises about EV's in the Superbowl, it boosts Tesla sales. It's hilarious because it's like randos affected kick tires around then realize, oh Tesla! So to Stealths point, Tesla no need to waste mula on Superbowl!

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