If the price cuts stoke demand then I see the benefit. But selling a Model 3 today for 35,000 yuan less than they sold it for yesterday, I don't see as a win
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
In for 20 shares in one of the kid's Coverdale accounts at 101.90.
Now to see if the second one executes. Man, do I love a good bargain!
Now to see if the second one executes. Man, do I love a good bargain!
where is the 1st piece of news stating Tesla order books are exploding due to price drop gonna come from? ...
+China insurance data, Troy
in US some tracker was there i think which used CC's or something like that?
~ 2M order book, and Tesla will be business as usual for 2023 ...
+China insurance data, Troy
in US some tracker was there i think which used CC's or something like that?
~ 2M order book, and Tesla will be business as usual for 2023 ...
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Pre-market volume today set a new all-time record at 13,741,659 (13.7M) shares traded.
That is 16.7% higher than the previous record volume in the Pre-Market.
Shortzes think their China demand thesis has been vindicated. Instead, they'll just find out that Tesla's pricing power will propell them to the top of the industry while lesser manufacturors fall to the wayside. Shortzes just won't be here to see it happen ('cuz dey short).
Cheers to the Longs!
That is 16.7% higher than the previous record volume in the Pre-Market.
Shortzes think their China demand thesis has been vindicated. Instead, they'll just find out that Tesla's pricing power will propell them to the top of the industry while lesser manufacturors fall to the wayside. Shortzes just won't be here to see it happen ('cuz dey short).
Cheers to the Longs!
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Margins are, of course, more sensitive to price cuts than incremental manufacturing efficiency improvements simply because it's a lot easier to knock 7% off margins with a price cut than it is to add 7% to the margins with efficiency improvements. I will be very interested to see how well Tesla's margins hold up through some liberal price cutting but those who think they might not go down at all, or only a couple of percent, will probably be disappointed.
The good news is prices can go up or down at will while manufacturing efficiencies have persistence and can even be cloned in other production facilities. Tesla's focus on innovation in the design and manufacture of vehicles is what put them in the dominant competitive position they currently enjoy and any competitor who thinks Tesla will stop innovating now will be in for a rude awakening.
Tesla's presumed competitors want their engineers and workers to be innovative, they talk about being innovative, they try to encourage it, but they lack the culture and the people to innovate as well, and even when they do innovate, they lack the corporate structure to make it happen, at least with the kind of speed and efficiency that Tesla has repeatedly demonstrated. Which is just a long-winded way of saying there is no conceivable way in which Tesla will not continue to widen the gap in production efficiency. It's in their corporate DNA.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
You need to find a livefeed to a webcam at the Tesla China Store. They gonna need security.
Its the better of the two crappy options. Either sell the car and take the hit, or produce less and take the hit. Either way you are taking a hit. However selling the car gets people in seats, who then can be a Tesla customer forever given their high satisfaction score. Tesla do have their own private charging stations in China which BYD customers don't have access to. Get used to that ecosystem and you may never switch.
Funny story (kinda): HIGHLY intelligent coworker and I had a conversation a few weeks ago. Was telling me he bought at $285. At time of our conversation, TSLA was at $216 and he said "this is a really good price to buy more. You should buy some now". And he went on to tell all of the very technical wall street type explanations of why the $216 was a DEAL at that time. I only countered with "I dont think so. Competition is ramping up, Elon is acting crazy, alienating people, and the whole FSD thing is a sham, and Elon says Tesla's life depends on FSD".
He basically said "you dont understand the market, those things dont matter". (and to be honest, I get that those things probably dont matter to wall street?)
Either way, I didnt buy. And still havent (yet). LOL
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
The IRA limit for pickups is $80K, why would Tesla sell it for $70K when all other competitors will max out the retail limits? Cuz Tesla said $70K back in Nov 2019 at the pre-Covid, pre-inflation reveal event?
Uh, no.
Set an order for $100 (first time as I usually just buy at market price), within 30 seconds couldn't wait and submitted the same order at market price $102.41. Just couldn't risk it not filling and this being the bottom!! The other is still there just in case (I don't think it'll fill though - hopium!)
Now IMO I much rather Tesla announce a new Model 3 2.0 or Y 2.0 than to reduce prices. I suspect BYD will do just fine without decreasing prices because their seal is new, which garnish lots of interest because it's a newest toy on the block. Tesla should compete more in that aspect.
Prices are coming down in North America too in one way or another, just give it some time
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
This is the classic "time the market" thesis, which has been disproven time and time again.
Simple question - and I don't know where things are going - but what happens if we don't hit your number? Years later, after multiple more splits, the difference in cost basis between what I bought at and what you want to buy at is pretty small. But the difference in wealth accumulation of me buying through dollar cost averaging and you waiting to time the bottom (which historically doesn't work well) and eventually not buying . . . is huge.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Shanghai was almost certainly earning significantly better than 30% margins, because Zach said that in Q3 auto gross margin excluding regulatory credits would’ve been nearly 30% with Berlin and Texas excluded, and we know Shanghai is more profitable than Fremont due to lower wages and higher efficiency.
Zach also said that Q3 was probably when material costs peaked and that substantial declines were expected to kick in seriously around Q1. We also now have whatever line upgrades were done a few months ago that also should’ve reduced cost per car.
This move of course does lower margins relative to whatever they were before the cuts, but I think 17% is a very conservative guess.
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Oh I definitely get it. But in general, I set a "buy" price that I feel is appropriate (for my personal picks of stocks, which is a bit less than 10% of my overall portfolio. Im not good enough with stocks/investments to trust myself with anymore than that, so the rest of my investment is boring and goes with the 3 fund boglehead route) for the stock, set it, and let it roll. If it doesnt dip to that level, and rises instead? I already mentally set my expectations in that manner. And either pick another stock or go boring and dump it into VTI or the like. I know, boring and may not make sense. But its what works for me long term
Are we trying to fill a gap from today's premarket before turning south or is MM helping today to scre put holders?
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Don't look a gift horse in the mouth . . .
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