Sure would be nice to see some videos of Teslas driving themselves through Boring tunnels using FSD. It's killing me that we still have human drivers in Vegas.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
30% margin is on revenue, not cogs
Revenue = profit + cogs
Rev = Rev*.3+cogs
Cogs=.7*rev
If it's all variable cost or production stays constant:
RevNew=.9revOld
ProfNew=RevNew - .7revOld
ProfNew = .9revOld - .7revOld
ProfNew=.2*revOld
GMNew= (.2*revOld)/(.9*revOld)
= 22%
If cogs is 30% fixed costs and they increase production 30%
cogsNew = .7*cogsOld + .3*cogsOld*(1/1.3)
= 0.93*cogsOld
= 0.93*0.7*revOld
= 0.65 *revOld
ProfNew = 0.9*revOld - 0.65 *revOld
=0.25* revOld
Gm = 0.25*revOld/ (0.9*revOld)
= 28%
I need some help in a debate with my son re TSLA as an investor (given his recent concerns in his inheritance, lol). He's a mathematician, so numbers help.
He thinks TSLA value is trending to zero, and not because of the FUD. Have we discussed the scenario of super low margins -> 20M annual production? And with the mission as the priority, what's the $ value of the company to an investor? To be fair, he rags on any company who doesn't pay a dividend, and is merely asking where's the return on investment. Fair question.
I'm sure there's motivation for Tesla to both make products and a profit as one protects the other, but which path satisfies the mission best? Risk of failure is diminishing with innovation and improving margins. That combination maintains the market lead.
OTOH, Tesla doesn't just make cars, and their processes and margins are best in class (yesterday anyway). People/goods need transport, and Tesla has the clear lead so they don't need to pinch any further than the competition. (You only have to run faster than the others to escape the bear and survive.)
I could use some better arguments though; his scenario seems to be making ground lately. You folks run circles around my debate skills. Maybe there's an investor definition I'm missing or ?
He thinks TSLA value is trending to zero, and not because of the FUD. Have we discussed the scenario of super low margins -> 20M annual production? And with the mission as the priority, what's the $ value of the company to an investor? To be fair, he rags on any company who doesn't pay a dividend, and is merely asking where's the return on investment. Fair question.
I'm sure there's motivation for Tesla to both make products and a profit as one protects the other, but which path satisfies the mission best? Risk of failure is diminishing with innovation and improving margins. That combination maintains the market lead.
OTOH, Tesla doesn't just make cars, and their processes and margins are best in class (yesterday anyway). People/goods need transport, and Tesla has the clear lead so they don't need to pinch any further than the competition. (You only have to run faster than the others to escape the bear and survive.)
I could use some better arguments though; his scenario seems to be making ground lately. You folks run circles around my debate skills. Maybe there's an investor definition I'm missing or ?
Olle
Active Member
In due time. Should be pretty close now!
mars_or_bust
Member
Handily beats the logic of at least 99% of analysts
Reminds me of the iphone moment over a decade ago
I need to know more about how he sees Tesla going bankrupt. This makes no sense. 20M at very low margins does not trend to zero. That would just be a move to exterminate the competition.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
From planning documents filed with the Lingang development authority in Nov 2021, the project cost $188M, increased employee headcount by 4k, and increased production from 60k cars per month to 90k:
Tesla to invest $188 mln to expand Shanghai factory capacity - REUTERS | Nov 25, 2021
乌瓦 on Twitter: "Today (Nov. 26) the media learned from the environmental information disclosure platform that Tesla will expand the production line of its Shanghai plant. The total investment in the production line is up to 1.2 billion RMB and will be completed in April next year. #TeslaSahnghai https://t.co/yQtAoeyB8m" / Twitter | Dec 25, 2021
Tesla’s workforce expansion at Giga Shanghai will grow ‘new model’ line by 50% | Jan 6, 2022
The April schedule slid due to China cofefe measures (project ran instead Jul-Aug, 2022)
"Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the NCPA, expects a strong H2 2022. Tesla GigaShanghai, post upcoming expansion, expected to reach 90k monthly production. $TSLA" / Twitter | May 5, 2022
TL;dr Installed capacity increased 50% while headcount went up about 33%
Tesla Model 3 ends Toyota Camry’s 28 year streak as best selling mid-size sedan in Australia
The Tesla Model 3 ended the 28-year winning streak for Toyota in the segment, just edging out the other sedan with 10,855 sales.
driveteslacanada.ca
Tesla ended the 28-year winning streak for the perennial favourite Toyota Camry in the segment, overtaking the fossil fuel powered family sedan with 10,855 sales of the Model 3.
The Camry, for its sake, had a total of 9,538 vehicles sold.
I can answer that one at least. There isn't technically an ROI until dividends happen. The value of a stock that doesn't offer dividends comes down to the promise of future dividends. I suppose the small chance that it goes private is also a factor.
Dividend Discount Model or in plain English, net present value of future expected dividends. It is an odd thing where they technically have zero current value, but just like fiat money other people value it so therefore it has value.
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I think todays market action is really positive. I was expecting the price to drop ten percent today and then my pessimistic mind figured we'd drop another ten percent when they lower prices here in the US. Today's reaction tells me we're probably very close to an absolute bottom.
Knocking on wood for smooth CyberTruck launch.
Knocking on wood for smooth CyberTruck launch.
I think what people were saying (including myself) is that there was a demand problem at the current prices and a price adjustment was needed. At lower price points there should be a lot more demand.
where's the return on investment - Buy low, sell high = Nice Return
I cannot tell you how many trolls i have had reach out to me asking me if i need a 2nd job due to $TSLA SP collapsing in the last 2 months. All the data is out there, if your son is a mathematician, he should be good with numbers and see that by the time Tesla gets to 20M annual production, there will be multiple streams of revenue that the margins on autos will take a back seat. Just my $0.02 of course.
This would result in:
Factory cost per unit reduced 33% (1/1.5 = 67%)
Labor cost per unit reduced 11% (1.33/1.5 = 89%)
(Assuming they were maxed out to begin with)
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
In case any of you were 'concerned' over China margins, I repost this article originall published on Jan 5, 2021:
Tesla's China Model Y has 29.4% gross margin: report | Teslarati.com
Now, big differences are the line upgrades completed in Nov 2021 (↑Prod), and >90% localization for parts supply (↓COGS).
<insert Bobby McFerrin video here>
Cheers!
Tesla's China Model Y has 29.4% gross margin: report | Teslarati.com
Now, big differences are the line upgrades completed in Nov 2021 (↑Prod), and >90% localization for parts supply (↓COGS).
<insert Bobby McFerrin video here>
Cheers!
Can we retire the phrase "demand problem" please? 
Bullish or bearish I don't care. It obfuscates the discussion.
Bullish or bearish I don't care. It obfuscates the discussion.
And of course some are saying these are all protestors due to people missing the price drop.
But this says otherwise…
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