Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

There we have it. TSLA up 2 % on news about big price cuts in China.

Please cut the prices enormously in all countries.

Or am I missing something..?

Macros are up just as much. As @StarFoxisDown! Loves to say, Tesla is underperforming it’s beta.

That said… the market is handling it well.

 

[ThisStockGood]

Macros are up just as much. As @StarFoxisDown! Loves to say, Tesla is underperforming it’s beta.

That said… the market is handling it well.

Sure, but in that calculation you should count the pre market loss of about 7 %… I don’t believe the macros were down the same amount

 

[SOULPEDL]

I can answer that one at least. There isn't technically an ROI until dividends happen. The value of a stock that doesn't offer dividends comes down to the promise of future dividends. I suppose the small chance that it goes private is also a factor.

Dividend Discount Model or in plain English, net present value of future expected dividends. It is an odd thing where they technically have zero current value, but just like fiat money, other people value it so therefore it has value.

This comes closest to understanding his point on company value. So he's partially correct if there is never a dividend or buy-back. (BTW, a share buyback changes his view as we discussed this possibility as well.) The part about fiat currency is also interesting as that's what I believed Tesla would become someday.

In case anyone's wondering, I'm still all in and not taking son's advice, but listening closely. It's just a healthy discussion around these definitions. And in some ways, this dividend could come in the form of a lower cost vehicle for everyone and the investor was just helpful - I'm actually OK with that considering the alternate outcomes for humanity.

He also suggested I short military companies since the prospects of war in order to create slavery for American wealth is on the decline. Ya, we have these deep, crazy discussions. I think some stems from how he was mostly raise by "The Plaintiff". But also, a lot is his generation (mid 20's) who are pretty angry today re inequality and pollution. Heck, I'm pissed and I practically drank gasoline. We all assumed there was no other option.

 

[Ogre]

Sure, but in that calculation you should count the pre market loss of about 7 %… I don’t believe the macros were down the same amount

There seems to have been some pre-market anticipation that Tesla was going to dip hard today for sure.

Hopefully some bears got bit there.

 

[nativewolf]

Drew Baglino has been at Tesla since 2006. He’s helped build everything that we have now.

Elon has no qualms about firing people who aren’t up to snuff and he’s very demanding with executives.

BYD makes LFP batteries. A bunch of patents that recently expired basically made it so China had a monopoly on LFP. Tesla could not make them. Tesla was working on advanced nickel cells (4680s).

We don’t know what the holdup is on 4680s but it is a six year tech implementation plan that started in 2020 and Tesla has said chip and supply chain stuff has been more of the focus with cell supply not being a constraint. Why blame Drew without more specific reasons to do so

The holdups are multiple, to date they have achieved a large cell with the same chemistry and no DBE. It's even slightly lower energy density. It is a can suitable for the structural packs and that's neat. To date that's what they have, a big cell with no new chemistry, no DBE and...the implication being no real cost savings on the battery side of things. 2 years ago when panasonic said it would be 2024 before they had samples...that was, in retrospect, good sound planning.

We are all hopeful that they solve the issues, move to a better chemistry, get DBE solved, more costs reductions etc. Hope is not a strategy.

It's all about the batteries and they bet on 4680s. The work to date has enhanced manufacturing efficiencies and no doubt leads to greater margins.

 

[Gigapress]

How realistic do you think the 20M number is? I will be VERY happy to see 5M and ecstatic if Tesla can get to 10M. Folks on this board (myself included) tend to get into trouble when we use aspirational numbers like 20M as if they are likely.

Tesla has achieved like 30-50% market share in every segment for which they currently offer vehicles. The entire global auto industry is likely to grow to about 90-100M vehicles per year a decade from now. 20M for Tesla would be 20-25% market share.

Toyota and VW each sell about 10M per year nowadays and neither company has the kind of product differentiation or cost advantage that Tesla has, so predicting Tesla can ultimately double the market share achieved by these two companies is pretty reasonable.

Further if you look at markets like California, Tesla is already almost tied with Toyota in units sold despite much higher ASPs and despite only offering S3XY and no trucks, large SUVs, etc. California is on the leading edge of this EV disruption. Extrapolate out from California to the whole world and 20M looks feasible.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Tesla has achieved like 30-50% market share in every segment for which they currently offer vehicles. The entire global auto industry is likely to grow to about 90-100M vehicles per year a decade from now. 20M for Tesla would be 20-25% market share.

Toyota and VW each sell about 10M per year nowadays and neither company has the kind of product differentiation or cost advantage that Tesla has, so predicting Tesla can ultimately double the market share achieved by these two companies is pretty reasonable.

Further if you look at markets like California, Tesla is already almost tied with Toyota in units sold despite much higher ASPs and despite only offering S3XY and no trucks, large SUVs, etc. California is on the leading edge of this EV disruption. Extrapolate out from California to the whole world and 20M looks feasible.

Toyota does not make a comparable product right now but later on it could... and then it would be a margin vs volume trade off. Just look at Chinese competitors.

Still hopeful for us but we need to be on the forefront of innovation. We get first mover advantage, the Chinese get to copy + iterate. If we don't do regular refreshes and new features we will be hurt.

 

[SO16]

They had to get the "luck" in there, and of course before they mentioned Tesla.

Has anyone else noticed how many times “luck” and “Tesla” have been used in accidents?

I guess Teslas are just “lucky”.

Tesla Model 3 Driver Lucky to Be Alive After Boulder Violently Crushes Windshield

The driver first thought he'd been hit by a car, but then noticed the rock in the passenger seat after clearing his face from debris.

www.thedrive.com

Supernatural star Jared Padalecki 'lucky to be alive' after horror car crash

New details have emerged about the car crash that Jared Padalecki, 39, was involved in. The car he was travelling in flew over a wall before smashing into a pole. The actor is said to be on the mend and is 'lucky to be alive'

www.mirror.co.uk

Valet wrecks Performance Tesla Model 3 on unauthorized joy ride [Update]

A valet driver is lucky to be alive after wrecking a customer's Performance Tesla Model 3 while on an unauthorized joyride.

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[jamaatta]

DEMÄÄÄÄÄÄND PROBLEM! (Solved.)

 

[SOULPEDL]

The entire global auto industry is likely to grow to about 90-100M vehicles per year a decade from now.

Not at the current dismal MU (Machine Utilization). In 5 yrs, cars need to be moving or connecting to the grid as pure grid battery. I think we've peaked already unless FSD can't deliver by 2030... as some could argue.

 

[chronopublish]

How realistic do you think the 20M number is? I will be VERY happy to see 5M and ecstatic if Tesla can get to 10M. Folks on this board (myself included) tend to get into trouble when we use aspirational numbers like 20M as if they are likely.

Maybe, but those of us who believed Tesla's aspirational "500K deliveries in 2020" guidance that they provided in 2014 did very well.

 

[Max Plaid]

On the same traditional car-dealer street as Tesla Brussels and BYD, Lucid opening a store in... 2025!

Any bets on whether they'll still be solvent by then?

 

[ripper88]

Volume just hit 150 million and we still have 3 hours to go. Wow

 

[mongo]

The holdups are multiple, to date they have achieved a large cell with the same chemistry and no DBE. It's even slightly lower energy density. It is a can suitable for the structural packs and that's neat. To date that's what they have, a big cell with no new chemistry, no DBE and...the implication being no real cost savings on the battery side of things. 2 years ago when panasonic said it would be 2024 before they had samples...that was, in retrospect, good sound planning.

We are all hopeful that they solve the issues, move to a better chemistry, get DBE solved, more costs reductions etc. Hope is not a strategy.

It's all about the batteries and they bet on 4680s. The work to date has enhanced manufacturing efficiencies and no doubt leads to greater margins.

Anode is already using DBE.
Cathode plant is being built at Austin, we'll see if they have the dented roller problem fixed.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Macros are up just as much. As @StarFoxisDown! Loves to say, Tesla is underperforming it’s beta.

That said… the market is handling it well.

The optimistic view - TSLA showing clear signs of a bottom (at least in the near term) reversal off of what is perceived as negative news on good volume. Stock needs to finish the day strong though. This would be something like the 3rd or 4th time that tested breaking 100 and if it holds, would be bullish

The debbie downer view - TSLA has done this before at multi other support levels only to crater a week or two later. The trend in TSLA for like the past year has been for TSLA to rebound and/or outperform in the morning only for the stock to get weaker in the last 2-3 hours of trading.

So in summary....who the hell knows

 

[SOULPEDL]

Has anyone else noticed how many times “luck” and “Tesla” have been used in accidents?

I guess Teslas are just “lucky”.

Tesla Model 3 Driver Lucky to Be Alive After Boulder Violently Crushes Windshield

The driver first thought he'd been hit by a car, but then noticed the rock in the passenger seat after clearing his face from debris.

www.thedrive.com

Supernatural star Jared Padalecki 'lucky to be alive' after horror car crash

New details have emerged about the car crash that Jared Padalecki, 39, was involved in. The car he was travelling in flew over a wall before smashing into a pole. The actor is said to be on the mend and is 'lucky to be alive'

www.mirror.co.uk

Valet wrecks Performance Tesla Model 3 on unauthorized joy ride [Update]

A valet driver is lucky to be alive after wrecking a customer's Performance Tesla Model 3 while on an unauthorized joyride.

driveteslacanada.ca

Pretty hard to get hurt in a Tesla - even it you Try!
Can we try other cars to compare safety performance?

 

[Gigapress]

The holdups are multiple, to date they have achieved a large cell with the same chemistry and no DBE. It's even slightly lower energy density. It is a can suitable for the structural packs and that's neat. To date that's what they have, a big cell with no new chemistry, no DBE and...the implication being no real cost savings on the battery side of things. 2 years ago when panasonic said it would be 2024 before they had samples...that was, in retrospect, good sound planning.

We are all hopeful that they solve the issues, move to a better chemistry, get DBE solved, more costs reductions etc. Hope is not a strategy.

It's all about the batteries and they bet on 4680s. The work to date has enhanced manufacturing efficiencies and no doubt leads to greater margins.

I totally disagree that there have been no real cost savings on the battery side of things.

First, the larger cell in itself is a battery cost savings, all else being equal. Fewer cells to manage and perform operations on, and fewer cooling ribbons too. The geometry fundamentally gives some economies of scale.

The pack design with the flat bus bars are extremely easy to weld to the cans at high speed with perfect quality. This is surely saving money and hassle already. See image below from Munro Live.

The tabless cell design eliminates one of the worst operations with the worst yield in the old cell design and replaces it with a smooth continuous motion folding operation. Solving this with a decently high production rate is a substantial achievement and should be saving cost.

The structural packs are more than just “neat”. They are already saving time and money and ergonomics issues on the assembly line, or at least will be soon if not already. I don’t know if you’re counting that as battery savings but it is a substantial saving overall that’s already being directly enabled by the 4680 structural pack design.

Also the dry battery electrode (DBE) process is in fact being used on the anodes. This was confirmed by Jordan Giesege and the folks at UCSD (link).

There’s also the parts that we don’t have any visibility of that also factor into cost and I’d like to know how you’re so sure that Tesla has not accomplished any savings yet. Did Tesla achieve the CapEx and OpEx improvements in formation, jelly roll insertion and other parts of the manufacturing process? Is yield/scrap rate better? Is the new design of the cooling ribbons and pink foam easier to do than the 2170 pack design? What miscellaneous manufacturing improvements has Tesla implemented? We don’t know.

It’s possible that despite all this the 4680 design is currently more expensive overall as the R&D continues and production ramps, but to say there’s been basically no advances and no cost savings is just incorrect.

 

[2daMoon]

They had to get the "luck" in there, and of course before they mentioned Tesla.

What NBS meant is that the occupants were lucky, in that Tesla exists.

 

[geometro]

Anecdotal but wife finally got used to her Tesla (we shopped last quarter and every luxury SUV was on the table). She almost went with the Mercedes GLS, but I couldn’t do it… gas stations, dealer maintenance and long term reliability weighed on me heavily.

I think once more folks get a taste of Tesla they won’t go back… for her it was that she hadn’t gone to a gas station in months (any EV can solve that). For me it’s all three items and I just really despise dealerships. Legacy auto can’t compete here (plus the software from all other options was quite poor… so they can’t hire the right talent either).

Only things in their favor (IMO)— lack of Tesla brand awareness (still), and they do have nicer interiors.

Short term noise in the SP is annoying though.

Regarding price cuts… it makes me wonder how others (Rivian, Lucid) will be able to survive. (Assuming cuts come to US).

 

[FreqFlyer]

It costs money that consumers don't have, especially in a recession, to continually change and update the products in visible ways. Legacy auto played this game and, sure, we often got new-looking cars each new model year but then they cut corners on quality to pay for it. We ended up with a race for the bottom. And then the Japanese cars came in, plain and unassuming but high quality and practical at an affordable price, and they cleaned up.

Model 3 has a rumored update coming, I think it's in Q3, and it's likely mostly to reduce manufacturing expense. They will probably take the opportunity to update aesthetics while they are at it. I love the way Elon understands the path to success is a great product at a great price. It sounds simple but so many forget that it costs money to make changes simply to "freshen the look up" and the consumer has to pay for it. Most people just want a car that they can afford and is reliable. Look how successful the Model T was, the VW Beetle, the Toyota Corolla, etc. Most of the cars I see on the road today are not "peacock cars" they are just plain and practical, that's what most people want and are willing to pay for.

As Tesla grows mainstream, consumers will bore of the same design for a decade. Even the Europeans are on a 7 year design cycle.