Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

I can only imagine that the 10% drop is to kill BYD. Killing BYD is merely a continuation of Elon Vs Buffett tête-à-tête.

No - its to sell all the cars Tesla can make. As so many of us have been saying, they had to target lower price given market conditions.

Tesla will only reduce the price enough to move all the production. If they see too high of a demand again, they will up the price a bit ...

 

[bkp_duke]

Porsche seems to do well with very little design change. They
are possibly the most profitable large scale ICE manufacturer.

Subtle changes, unless you are an aficionado that knows
the difference.

ICE in general - this was the lack of innovation that always drove me bonkers.

Small body change, possibly change a turbo to a slightly larger one, and re-brand it as a "new design".

Tesla just eats all these companies for lunch with their rapid innovation and pace of technology innovation additions to a car (octovalve, heat pump, rapidly evolving software).

I have a 2018 Model 3 Perf, and normally I would be "bored" with it by now, if history of my car purchases is a guide. I may not be getting the hardware upgrades, but the software changes alone keeps the car from feeling "stale".

 

[thesmokingman]

Do people get bored of designs, or are new designs pushed out as part of planned obsolescence to trick them into wanting a new one?

I'm not sure so I assume it's a bit of both. Plenty of popular vehicles maintained the same or darn near the same design for a decade or more. Chargers, F150s (most trucks really), 4Runners etc.

Constant refreshes is a sign of a poor product longevity. And think of the elephant in the room, GIga Press. You need to scale production to make a casting worthwhile. And exterior refreshes cost money, increases complexity with parts, and support, adding further costs. Tesla will know when they need to make a change I trust.

 

[thesmokingman]

Porsche seems to do well with very little design change. They
are possibly the most profitable large scale ICE manufacturer.

Subtle changes, unless you are an aficionado that knows
the difference.

It's crazy how much stuff from a 90's 964 will bolt onto a 60's 911.

**Also it is must be noted how seriously over the top angry owners were anytime Porsche made changes. Anyone remember change to water? That's why the last of the oil cooled 911s, the 993 is so crazily valued. The 996 on the other hand, is valued like a Civic.

 

[Ogre]

Still no movement on US pricing.

Looking at the website there is still no local inventory and discounts are gone. The wait list on the 7 seat Model Y is already a month longer than the list for the 5 seat version though so apparently the word got out.

Sounds like the demand-pocalypse hasn’t smashed the US and the impact of the IRA legislation has been small or at least not immediate. All good news. Good to see Tesla is taking a much more measured approach to responding to the IRA incentive changes and the US market.

I still expect they will slide a 5 seater under $55k eventually. But thats a pretty big demand lever for them to pull.

 

[Ogre]

Tesla doesn't drop prices to kill competitors, they drop prices to expand sales. If it kills competitors, so be it, but BYD is probably more resilient to getting "killed" by this move than most of the rest.

Also, why would they want to kill off one of their battery suppliers?

 

[jerry33]

Pretty hard to get hurt in a Tesla - even it you Try!
Can we try other cars to compare safety performance?

View attachment 893046

There are simulators for other cars, typically used in litigation, so it should be possible to recreate this crash (without requiring volunteers).

 

[StealthP3D]

A lot of people have buy orders in all below 100$. I personally have some down to 70$. Not sure if those will execute. Shall see.

I love people that have buy orders below $100! Because it helps build a wall that's difficult for the share price to break through. The market makers can see that wall so they will only take it through it if they have a strong plan. And those are the same people buying in with FOMO as the price climbs past $140, all for want of a better deal by only 10 bucks!

Best of both worlds unless you also happen to be that person!

 

[ripper88]

A break to a lower low only to break back up above yesterdays high, on very high volume.

This is looking like a bottom to me. (and after all the fear and anxiety I felt last night it really could be )

 

[Singuy]

Porsche seems to do well with very little design change. They
are possibly the most profitable large scale ICE manufacturer.

Subtle changes, unless you are an aficionado that knows
the difference.

However Porsche's volume is pretty low. Even after 30 years of little design change, you rarely see Porsches on the road besides their SUV. White Model 3 and Y are all over the place.

 

[Electroman]

A break to a lower low only to break back up above yesterdays high, on very high volume.

This is looking like a bottom to me. (and after all the fear and anxiety I felt last night it really could be)

You look a lot like Tom Cruise !!

 

[capster]

…

He also suggested I short military companies since the prospects of war in order to create slavery for American wealth is on the decline. Ya, we have these deep, crazy discussions. I think some stems from how he was mostly raise by "The Plaintiff". But also, a lot is his generation (mid 20's) who are pretty angry today re inequality and pollution. Heck, I'm pissed and I practically drank gasoline. We all assumed there was no other option.

Getting a feel for sweeping trends takes study and experience. It helps to be dispassionate and avoid, ah, romantic notions.

Tesla is already a force in driving the energy transformation (and nothing succeeds like success). As for the details, competing large companies in mature markets can each have healthy margins though perhaps I misunderstand his reservations.

BTW, it’s foolish to short anything for an amateur (imho), but more so based on industry trend analysis (the long time scale is mismatched to that of price action) and especially when the analysis is flawed. That is, don’t short defense contractors because defense contractors will expand, not contract, for the foreseeable future. Here’s why:

Spoiler

New technology products—land, sea, and air BEV’s; AI and autonomy; reusable rockets with large payloads,…—will revolutionize warfare and already demand massive new investments. Just noodle a bit on the implications of Cybertrucks, FSD, and the nearly ready Starship.

The West will spend more to fight Russia and to arm Taiwan, if only to attempt to dissuade China from invading Taiwan.

Changes in military doctrine due to lessons learned in the Ukraine War will drive new spending.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The West will spend more to fight Russia and to arm Taiwan, if only to attempt to dissuade China from invading Taiwan.

Changes in military doctrine due to lessons learned in the Ukraine War will drive new spending.

You're convincing. Japan getting in on military as well.
I don't necessarily agree with my son, I just like to process stuff, ya know... noddle on it

 

[Drax7]

However Porsche's volume is pretty low. Even after 30 years of little design change, you rarely see Porsches on the road besides their SUV. White Model 3 and Y are all over the place.

Change is a demand catalyst.
Some feel inferior for driving a dated car
model.

 

[ThisStockGood]

I’m not a bully. But this day so far must have been a rollercoaster for our own TE…

Stay long and strong!

 

[scaesare]

Can we retire the phrase "demand problem" please? Bullish or bearish I don't care. It obfuscates the discussion.

A problem to fulfill that much demand?

 

[ARON44]

Dam just woke up to a nice surprise! I was fearing a bloodbath but it’s actually gone up? unreal.. I’m no expert but we know the bottom now right? it’s had resistance around the 105 mark about 4 times now, I bought 60 at $109 so if I’ve timed the bottom correctly then I’m happy

 

[Singuy]

Constant refreshes is a sign of a poor product longevity. And think of the elephant in the room, GIga Press. You need to scale production to make a casting worthwhile. And exterior refreshes cost money, increases complexity with parts, and support, adding further costs. Tesla will know when they need to make a change I trust.

I'm pretty sure refreshes doesn't require any structural changes. New style bumper and a new head light usually ends the exterior refresh.

 

[Singuy]

MeetKevin here has some interesting data to share. Retail are still buying Tsla, tho running out of firepower. Tesla is the number one stock with net inflows compared to the rest.

 

[Nocturnal]

Still no movement on US pricing.

Looking at the website there is still no local inventory and discounts are gone. The wait list on the 7 seat Model Y is already a month longer than the list for the 5 seat version though so apparently the word got out.

Sounds like the demand-pocalypse hasn’t smashed the US and the impact of the IRA legislation has been small or at least not immediate. All good news. Good to see Tesla is taking a much more measured approach to responding to the IRA incentive changes and the US market.

I still expect they will slide a 5 seater under $55k eventually. But thats a pretty big demand lever for them to pull.

But there is reduction for US pricing! It's just that Uncle Sam is footing the bill.