Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

The Roadster is a halo car. It will never sell in enough volume to make a meaningful difference in overall corporate profits.

True. I'd also estimate that every $250K Roadster that wipes the track with $2.5M supercars is worth $25M in free marketing...

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[thesmokingman]

True. I'd also estimate that every $250K Roadster that wipes the track with $2.5M supercars is worth $25M in free marketing...

Cheers to the Longs!

Rimac is gonna be like !@#$% when the roadster comes out. You could buy 10 Roadsters to 1 Nevera, lol. Musk is like keep my beer warm bro.

 

[StealthP3D]

100% agree with everything here (incl why China gave Tesla a pass on 50% JV ownership). The only potential storm cloud I see is the ability of battery materials to ramp supply fast enough for Tesla. And Tesla knows this too of course, which is why they are cutting mining deals and building lithium refining plants. Us investors haven’t been given the information needed to know whether Tesla has a clear path to 50% YoY growth from here on out WRT being to acquire enough battery cells and minerals to make such. I am hoping Tesla will provide that info on March 1st.

Good points. We don't have very good visibility into how much a limited battery/raw materials supply is a potential risk of slowing down Tesla's growth which is just one more reason to *not* like a bill named IRA because it diverts huge numbers of the world's cell supply to ICE hybrids (which I'm confident was part of the brilliant strategy of the people who engineered the bill) and extends the era of ICE cars unnaturally (by increasing PHEV production at the expense of BEV production).

Tesla ramping production as quickly as possible over the next two years, while driving down prices, could limit the ability of legacy auto to sell large volumes of hybrids at good margins because inexpensive BEV's that are actually available will make people think twice about buying a hybrid. Strike while the iron is hot (IRA subsidies). In other words, the more BEV's Tesla makes available at low prices, the fewer hybrids legacy will sell and the less they can charge for them. If Tesla can make enough batteries to for a fast ramp of the Cybertruck, it would be a helpful impact because this is what hits legacy auto where it hurts by gutting the sales of their most profitable trucks and large SUV's right when they can least afford it.

I've been told repeatedly that Tesla cannot do it by themselves, and while that is technically true, I think the more of it they do by themselves, the faster the transition will happen. And the more I watch legacy auto drag their feet in terms of bringing quality BEV's to market in large numbers, the more convinced I am that the bigger the role Tesla takes, the faster the transition will happen. It comes down to battery and mineral supply. Even if some legacy OEM's go bankrupt, the joint venture battery plants under construction will continue to feed cells to the EV market. And the more ICE cars not made, the quicker the ICE fleet will age and retire. COVID caused a lull in ICE sales which helps in this regard, and I think anything Tesla can do to accelerate that trend now, the quicker the transition will be complete.

As to battery/mineral shortages, Tesla management has good visibility but even they cannot predict how it will unfold with confidence. Still, I think they are they best indicator we have and I just watch their hints and clues when they project future growth.

 

[2daMoon]

Rimac is gonna be like !@#$% when the roadster comes out. You could buy 10 Roadsters to 1 Nevera, lol.

At least the Rimac can give a four door family sedan some good competition.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Maybe, but maybe now is just the first good time in recent years to start pumping them out

I think people were speculating the HD Radar is for Highland. But if we're talking Semi, CT, Highland, AND the roadster all suddenly in basically the same year, that's a crazy year.

not "maybe". A vehicle that sells in the 5000/year region simply is not meaningful to corporate profits of a multi-million-car maker.

extra effort should go into the CyberTruck if for some reason folks think people or machines are idle.

 

[Ogre]

True. I'd also estimate that every $250K Roadster that wipes the track with $2.5M supercars is worth $25M in free marketing...

Cheers to the Longs!

Hadn’t really thought about this, but where does this put companies like Lambo, Ferrari, and Rimac?

Tesla’s already trouncing BMW, Mercedes, and Audi. How soon before the high end gets tossed too?

Who would pay $1m for a Lambo only to get smoked by a $250k Roadster?

 

[Ogre]

Only 36 more days like today to hit the ATH. Thats a big hill to climb when we’re taking such little steps.

 

[2daMoon]

Is there any reason to believe that the latest stamping press installation and assembly robots being added to GigaTexas are not intended to provide a fast ramp as a Compact model production line?

Wouldn't it be grand to catch the IRA's PHEV and Legacy OEM supporters completely off guard if the Compact, Cybertruck, and maybe even the Semi were all added to GigaTexas' repertoire by year's end.

You can't take MY dreams away, no siree!

 

[Ogre]

Is there any reason to believe that the latest stamping press installation and assembly robots being added to GigaTexas are not intended to provide a fast ramp as a Compact model production line?

Wouldn't it be grand to catch the IRA's PHEV and Legacy OEM supporters completely off guard if the Compact, Cybertruck, and Semi were all added to GigaTexas' repertoire by year's end.

You can't take MY dreams away, no siree!

I suggested as much previously. Here’s another sighting from Whole Mars. Higher platform so it’s a different trailer from any we’ve seen before.

There are just a lot of these huge IDRA loads. It would be super sneaky for them to bring in 2 at the same time. Hiding in plain sight.

 

[thesmokingman]

Is there any reason to believe that the latest stamping press installation and assembly robots being added to GigaTexas are not intended to provide a fast ramp as a Compact model production line?

Wouldn't it be grand to catch the IRA's PHEV and Legacy OEM supporters completely off guard if the Compact, Cybertruck, and maybe even the Semi were all added to GigaTexas' repertoire by year's end.

You can't take MY dreams away, no siree!

That's a sexy dream scenario bro.

 

[Rarity]

Is there any reason to believe that the latest stamping press installation and assembly robots being added to GigaTexas are not intended to provide a fast ramp as a Compact model production line?

Wouldn't it be grand to catch the IRA's PHEV and Legacy OEM supporters completely off guard if the Compact, Cybertruck, and maybe even the Semi were all added to GigaTexas' repertoire by year's end.

You can't take MY dreams away, no siree!

Wouldn't it be dreamier to have a bigger ramp of Model Y? It seems that it has not yet saturated the market.

 

[2daMoon]

I suggested as much previously. Here’s another sighting from Whole Mars. Higher platform so it’s a different trailer from any we’ve seen before.

There are just a lot of these huge IDRA loads. It would be super sneaky for them to bring in 2 at the same time. Hiding in plain sight.


View attachment 894674

Yes, the IDRA injection presses could be multiplied as well!

I was referring to the new AIDA Stamping press installation that has been going on at the other end of the building.

Now, let's imagine the Compact is also built as Stainless Steel Origami, no paint, fast build, and shares some of the line with the Cybertruck.

 

[2daMoon]

Wouldn't it be dreamier to have a bigger ramp of Model Y? It seems that it has not yet saturated the market.

Aw heck, why not do that too?
Everything's bigger in Texas!

 

[petit_bateau]

Interesting white paper on the Tesla Solar Inverter posted on Reddit today: https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/...tecture_White_Paper_NA-EN_12212022_PYC2C9.pdf

Some key points via the comments:

• $1,400 to $1,800 cheaper upfront cost compared to the alternatives
• 6-15% cheaper in terms of $/kWh during the lifetime
• 38% more reliable
• Scalability: Easy to install and service + less power electronics per solar installation
• Supply scalability: 1.4 TW of in-house built inverters (vehicles + energy) already delivered (33x of SolarEdge and Enphase combined)

Aside from the above, the most interesting thing to me is that Tesla seems to be positioning this to be a product they provide to third-party installers. From the conclusion: "We look forward to extending these advantages to installers and system owners across the world to accelerate the transition to a sustainable future."

Selling turn-key solar systems to third-party installers really opens up Tesla Solar's total addressable market.

Edit: Source's source confirms they're shipping now: "Our residential solar inverter is shipping now to Tesla Certified Installers"

Talk about misleading marketing or what.

Tesla so far (end 2022) has installed cumulative capacity of 1.2 GW of solar, all of which required an inverter. Now a lot of the so-called Tesla inverters in that were actually SolarEdge ones, but hey ho. In comparison the cumulative global solar capacity of 884 GW of solar. Once again that's 0.1% maximum of the existing solar has a Tesla inverter associated with it.

Now I hear the yelp "but what about the cars". Let's assume the cars have each got a 100kW inverter, so cumulative 3.7 million cars yields 365 GW of inverter. That at least begins to look comparable. Until you recall that those inverter manufacturers (and the underlying chipset manufacturers) aren't just making solar inverters. They make all sorts of other inverters (aka 'drives') most of which go into powering motors (yes, just like Tesla does, so this is a fair comparison).

Regarding strings and optimisers that all depends on the use case. If one was cynical one might say that the Tesla tiles are really aimed at simple roof cases, so the correspondng inverter for a typical Tesla customer will not benefit so much from optimisers.

I'm not convinced about the other points either. There seem to be some apples and oranges comparisons going on, but I'd need to pull some data out to be certain on that.

Humph.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Given the lack of updates about status of Roadster deliveries and also the fact that I could be easily be earning 3.5% on my deposit money, I just called to ask for my deposit back. Took 20 minutes to get someone on the line; after taking my info and then having some muffled conversations with people in the background, the person came back and said "I'm being told that Elon has said we will deliver these in Q2 or Q3 of this year". I asked her to verify that she meant 2023. More muffled convo in background, and then she says "yes, in 2023".

Scoop of the year (so far)! Given my reservation for a Founder's edition, I will uncritically believe this and sleep blissfully and happily tonight. Thank you.

BTW, what is its projected unit sale number?

5,000 a year. BTW, I doubt the car will still cost $250K, although it might.

The Roadster is a halo car. It will never sell in enough volume to make a meaningful difference in overall corporate profits.

Correct. 5,000 a year is probably all the market can bear for a $250K (or more) car.

 

[JRP3]

8 more Semis getting ready for delivery

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613215163603386369

 

[MP3Mike]

Talk about misleading marketing or what.

Tesla so far (end 2022) has installed cumulative capacity of 1.2 GW of solar, all of which required an inverter. Now a lot of the so-called Tesla inverters in that were actually SolarEdge ones, but hey ho. In comparison the cumulative global solar capacity of 884 GW of solar. Once again that's 0.1% maximum of the existing solar has a Tesla inverter associated with it.

Now I hear the yelp "but what about the cars". Let's assume the cars have each got a 100kW inverter, so cumulative 3.7 million cars yields 365 GW of inverter. That at least begins to look comparable.

I'm not sure what you are reading but I didn't see anything misleading in there. They didn't claim that all the solar they installed used in-house inverters. They just made a specific claim of how many Tesla made inverters have been installed, solar/energy storage/vehicles. That wouldn't include any of the SolarEdge, Delta, etc. inverters that Tesla installed in solar projects.

As far as inverters in Tesla vehicles, they have way more than 100kW. For example, the Model S Plaid has ~750kW of inverters. (I think a RWD Tesla has close to 200kW of inverters.)

Until you recall that those inverter manufacturers (and the underlying chipset manufacturers) aren't just making solar inverters. They make all sorts of other inverters (aka 'drives') most of which go into powering motors (yes, just like Tesla does, so this is a fair comparison).

I don't see anything on SolarEdge's site about inverters for motors... I don't see Enphase advertising any either... So it seems that you are the one being misleading...

Regarding strings and optimisers that all depends on the use case. If one was cynical one might say that the Tesla tiles are really aimed at simple roof cases, so the correspondng inverter for a typical Tesla customer will not benefit so much from optimisers.

They made it very clear that for most of the actual installs that optimizers didn't make sense. (You would be better served by spending the money that would have gone to them on additional panels.) And that in cases where they might make sense their inverters may accomplish the same thing by supporting more, and smaller, MPPT strings than the competitors inverters.

 

[Ogre]

Speaking of the Roadster, Franz doing another interview with Ride the Lightning. Cybertruck and Roadster the twi hot topics.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613313804041064451

 

[Prunesquallor]

…
Who would pay $1m for a Lambo only to get smoked by a $250k Roadster?

“Smoked” literally when driver punches the SpaceX package.

 

[Noble Ninja]

Roadster deliveries in 2023?

Given the lack of updates about status of Roadster deliveries and also the fact that I could be easily be earning 3.5% on my deposit money, I just called to ask for my deposit back. Took 20 minutes to get someone on the line; after taking my info and then having some muffled conversations with people in the background, the person came back and said "I'm being told that Elon has said we will deliver these in Q2 or Q3 of this year". I asked her to verify that she meant 2023. More muffled convo in background, and then she says "yes, in 2023".

I'm not sure how confident to be with this info, but I told her I would hold off on cancelling for a few months and see where this goes.

Personally I haven't seen anything on Twitter or elsewhere to support this; seems like most people were thinking 2024 for Roadster deliveries to start.

I'm happy for you that you could possibly be getting one so soon.

For myself, as much as I'm looking forward to the new Roadster, I'm not betting on it coming out later this year and I don't think Tesla needs to focus on it so soon. I'd much rather have them focus on other vehicles like CT and Semi, despite how low volume the Roadster production would be.

However, if it does release later in the year, it'll be a really nice bonus.