Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see it, I just don't think it's realistic. Early to mid 2024 sounds more likely to me, if even that soon.

Hard to imagine they will start on the roadster before CT is ramping. I'm happy to wait until 2025 if needed.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Edward Jones upgrades Tesla...

Tesla Stock Upgraded To "Buy" By Edward Jones

Despite Tesla’s stock tumbling throughout last year, some Wall Street analysts are seeing the low share prices as an opportunity.

cleantechnica.com

 

[JRP3]

Because at a time when cars were becoming increasingly loaded with technology, and people were becoming increasingly concerned about privacy and other issues, and rightfully so, Elon knew there was a real chance of backlash about in-car cameras and it was a sensitive issue for people that were not yet necessarily fully comfortable with a camera in the cabin.

Tesla also could have offered a "Privacy package" and shipped a small roll of electrical tape with the vehicle.

 

[Mengy]

I think the lack of announcements is a shift in communications. Rather than promising things years off, they seem to be getting a bit more disciplined about only promising what they are confident they can deliver. Thus the radio silence on Gen 3 until now and general radio silence on a lot of things. Seems like they are shifting out of “Kickstarter” mode and more into a production mentality where they talk about shipping or eminently shipping products.

I hope so, “Elon Time” is tolerable in a startup, we should be beyond it now. Though FSD still seems to be in this vortex.

Not saying your car comes this year. But maybe if/ when we hear about Roadster next the timeline will be more solid.

That does seem to be the case.

We have a plant in Mexico which we know permits and such are underway yet we've heard nothing at all from Tesla directly. We now hear there is preliminary workings for another new factory in Indonesia, and again no info, hints, nor rumors at all from Tesla. IDRA is getting ready to ship a surprise second 9000t giga press to Asia and we have no idea whatsoever if its for Tesla or someone else, but if it IS for Tesla then it's purpose is a total mystery to us. 4680 production is underway and apparently scaling (slowly) but Tesla isn't saying much about it. Gen 3 is designed or being designed yet we don't know what it looks like, what it's being called, nor where it will be made or when it will be released.

Tesla does seem to be keeping reveals closer to the chest than they used to, and that's probably a good thing as it prevents any Osbourne effect on current products.

In any case, a LOT is going on with Tesla right now, both in production and in development. That much is very certain.

 

[Nocturnal]

That does seem to be the case.

We have a plant in Mexico which we know permits and such are underway yet we've heard nothing at all from Tesla directly. We now hear there is preliminary workings for another new factory in Indonesia, and again no info, hints, nor rumors at all from Tesla. IDRA is getting ready to ship a surprise second 9000t giga press to Asia and we have no idea whatsoever if its for Tesla or someone else, but if it IS for Tesla then it's purpose is a total mystery to us. 4680 production is underway and apparently scaling (slowly) but Tesla isn't saying much about it. Gen 3 is designed or being designed yet we don't know what it looks like, what it's being called, nor where it will be made or when it will be released.

Tesla does seem to be keeping reveals closer to the chest than they used to, and that's probably a good thing as it prevents any Osbourne effect on current products.

In any case, a LOT is going on with Tesla right now, both in production and in development. That much is very certain.

Seems like it. This new trend of being quiet is also contributing to the negative perceptions lately. Even among Tesla bulls we see some perception that Tesla "isn't doing anything". People aren't used to this shift in tone.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

That sounds kind of preposterous to me, we've not heard nor seen any movement on a Roadster production line being built at all. CT line is being built now and it will take 6-8 months to get up and running, IF it goes smoothly. Roadster production line would need to start NOW to have any chance of any Q3 deliveries I'd imagine.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see it, I just don't think it's realistic. Early to mid 2024 sounds more likely to me, if even that soon.

Customer Service probably got confused with the original roadster and the new one

 

[thesmokingman]

That does seem to be the case.

We have a plant in Mexico which we know permits and such are underway yet we've heard nothing at all from Tesla directly. We now hear there is preliminary workings for another new factory in Indonesia, and again no info, hints, nor rumors at all from Tesla. IDRA is getting ready to ship a surprise second 9000t giga press to Asia and we have no idea whatsoever if its for Tesla or someone else, but if it IS for Tesla then it's purpose is a total mystery to us. 4680 production is underway and apparently scaling (slowly) but Tesla isn't saying much about it. Gen 3 is designed or being designed yet we don't know what it looks like, what it's being called, nor where it will be made or when it will be released.

Tesla does seem to be keeping reveals closer to the chest than they used to, and that's probably a good thing as it prevents any Osbourne effect on current products.

In any case, a LOT is going on with Tesla right now, both in production and in development. That much is very certain.

So much is afoot! The next six months feels like it is gonna be so packed with I dunno, just juicy stuff.

 

[StealthP3D]

On Sunday afternoon (after a drive in the country), I stopped for a L3 charge at a CCS Combo station operated by FLO. There was a Kona EV there charging when I arrived, and I got to chatting with it's new Owner (car was only 5 days old, it's 1st L3 charging session).

After a while, I asked to see her Kona's 'frunk', then I showed her my Model Y...

Does this make me a bad person?

Cheers!

I would not recommend showing a woman the junk in your frunk unless she asks to see it first!

I'm a little surprised you showed her without her asking! /s

 

[Drumheller]

Roadster deliveries in 2023?

Given the lack of updates about status of Roadster deliveries and also the fact that I could be easily be earning 3.5% on my deposit money, I just called to ask for my deposit back. Took 20 minutes to get someone on the line; after taking my info and then having some muffled conversations with people in the background, the person came back and said "I'm being told that Elon has said we will deliver these in Q2 or Q3 of this year". I asked her to verify that she meant 2023. More muffled convo in background, and then she says "yes, in 2023".

I'm not sure how confident to be with this info, but I told her I would hold off on cancelling for a few months and see where this goes.

Personally I haven't seen anything on Twitter or elsewhere to support this; seems like most people were thinking 2024 for Roadster deliveries to start.

In a recent Tesla update (Q3 maybe?), Roadster was listed as 2023 release.

If the info you were told is accurate, I'm going to need to see some new all time highs from TSLA so I can buy one of these sweet roadsters.

 

[Mengy]

Seems like it. This new trend of being quiet is also contributing to the negative perceptions lately. Even among Tesla bulls we see some perception that Tesla "isn't doing anything". People aren't used to this shift in tone.

This does seen to be an unfortunate side effect.

 

[Motor Mouth]

This does seen to be an unfortunate side effect.

Revenge is a dish best served cold.

 

[Ogre]

Seems like it. This new trend of being quiet is also contributing to the negative perceptions lately. Even among Tesla bulls we see some perception that Tesla "isn't doing anything". People aren't used to this shift in tone.

As a Tesla Bull. I rather prefer the way they seem to be handling the Gen3 vehicle versus the Cybertruck. We‘ve known for some time Tesla is planning on this and it’s in the wings, but no specific promises are made until they can be met.

I definitely want to hear about future projects like Optimus, but they can be at events like AI day or just mentioned on earnings calls with no timelines.

Kickstarter mode was cool for a while, but timelines should be reliably met.


Though the big, interesting thing with the Cybertruck is it seemed to serve another purpose. It kick started the competition into action. So there is a purpose to longer term timelines too, just maybe they should use them cautiously.

PS: Once Tesla is regularly announcing things when they are nearly ready, the cadence of interesting announcements should resume, they will just be followed shortly by deliveries.

 

[Ogre]

I would not recommend showing a woman the junk in your frunk unless she asks to see it first!

I'm a little surprised you showed her without her asking! /s

You never know, maybe AD has no junk in the truck. Junkless so to speak.

Who could be offended by a clean frunk?

 

[StealthP3D]

For this situation, in order not to be mischievous, it must be an equal-area projection; the one shown most decidedly is not. Rather, it shows off the desired focus in the best possible light.

I don't see it that way at all. Most maps people are familiar with are not equal-area projections and the point of the tweet was to show how familiar assumptions about where people live might be incorrect. By using a projection most people are familiar with, the example highlights some of our misconceptions about population distribution. It did not intend to address the geographic distortion inherent in popular map projections (although it's clear that is of more interest to you than where most people live).

The point was not to fix people's misconceptions about the relative sizes of various land areas, it was to make people understand in which part of the world most people live. And if Tesla is building a factory in Indonesia, it's very on-point. Maps are useful for many things.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla thumps BMW to claim title of top US luxury brand in 2022 for the first time

Tesla has done what it wasn’t able to do in 2021 and overtaken BMW to claim the title of the top luxury car brand in the US for 2022. This marks the first time a […]

driveteslacanada.ca

According to estimates from the Automotive News Research & Data Center Tesla sold more than 491,000 cars in the US last year, more than 56% higher than what they were able to sell in 2021. That is a whopping 158,612 more than BMW which sold 332,388 cars in the US during the same time period, down 1.3% from 2022.

Making the accomplishment even more impressive is that Tesla increased their sales 56% while overall sales in the US luxury segment dropped by 8%.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Here's a breakdown of luxury car sales in US...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613263860194217984

 

[Gigapress]

Tesla thumps BMW to claim title of top US luxury brand in 2022 for the first time

Tesla has done what it wasn’t able to do in 2021 and overtaken BMW to claim the title of the top luxury car brand in the US for 2022. This marks the first time a […]

driveteslacanada.ca

According to estimates from the Automotive News Research & Data Center Tesla sold more than 491,000 cars in the US last year, more than 56% higher than what they were able to sell in 2021. That is a whopping 158,612 more than BMW which sold 332,388 cars in the US during the same time period, down 1.3% from 2022.

Making the accomplishment even more impressive is that Tesla increased their sales 56% while overall sales in the US luxury segment dropped by 8%.

 

[Usain]

In SoCal, I haven't seen a delivery center stacked with waiting inventory so I also don't follow that logic. Think all reported will be reflected on the site + some could show up for multiple areas since it would only be a <30 mile drive to move between center. So 1 car is available at 3-4 different spots.

Also, Not that it changes much but isn't it 100 total configs?

MYLR x 5 color x 2 wheel x 2 tow hitch x 2 interior x 2 seat = 80
MYP x 5 color x 1 wheel x 2 tow x 2 interior x 1 seat = 20

You are correct. I forgot that that MYP only has one wheel config and one seat config.

 

[Captkerosene]

Buffett has a thing called his "too hard pile." Most of his investments are basically toll bridges. He doesn't shoot "fish in a barrel" ... he "dumps 'em out, waits for them to stop wiggling around and then shoots 'em." With that in mind, I still think it unlikely that Buffett is buying TSLA ... but it's far more likely now than a year ago.

Buffett/Munger/BRK invested in BYD because they have a great CEO - not because they love the business. They like businesses that "any idiot could run ... because eventually one will be."

Just a quick addendum. to the above: the energy business is well understood by Buffett and his management team. (They own utilities.) Tesla Energy might be a business that they would really like and as it becomes more important to Tesla it makes TSLA look better to BRK.

Applies to other investors too that worry that auto will always be a mosh pit of competition.

 

[GOVA]

That sounds kind of preposterous to me, we've not heard nor seen any movement on a Roadster production line being built at all. CT line is being built now and it will take 6-8 months to get up and running, IF it goes smoothly. Roadster production line would need to start NOW to have any chance of any Q3 deliveries I'd imagine.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see it, I just don't think it's realistic. Early to mid 2024 sounds more likely to me, if even that soon.

Having read all of those Roadster posts, I don't see why now would not be the time.

Tesla does not have to announce it and they have been pretty tight-lipped lately. Based off its price and intended sales numbers it is almost a side-garage product. The body and motors have been ready for years. The (new?) battery is probably ready too. I think we might find out soon. I think it might happen much sooner than folks here expect.

BTW, what is its projected unit sale number?