Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

Maybe you should read the forum on a smartphone. Smartphones that would never have existed without Apple, obviously

And yet, until the iPhone was released, the Blackberry (crackberry they called them) was a near monopoly.

FACT is that even the legacy ICE OEMs fully acknowledge that Tesla forced them to EVs. Not just accelerated things, but forced them to make the change. Except Toyota, and if there head is so far in the sand, do you think the others would have moved?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

The YouGov net favourability rating for Tesla is currently 26% (”liked by” 48% vs “disliked by” 22%), which is feeble compared to other car brands net favorability:

Toyota: 62% (69% like vs 7% dislike)
Honda: 62% (68% like vs 6% dislike)
Ford: 51% (62% like vs 11% dislike)
Volkswagon: 48% (57% like vs 9% dislike)
GM: 48% (59% like vs 11% dislike)
Tesla:: 26% (48% like vs 22% dislike)

The numbers for Tesla are excellent, considering that it is:

#1 The only brand that has had to endure a relentless stream of media FUD for the last 10 years.
#2 The only EV brand in this line-up. Unfortunately a large section of the population still is not a fan of EVs (partly because of #1)

In that light the 48% likes is actually pretty high and the 22% dislikes pretty low.

 

[scaesare]

Maybe you should watch the "Who Killed the Electric Car?" series. Elon Musk was (and still is) the best force for this transition, but he isn't the only one who care(s|d) about EV. They are long overdue, but Tesla was probably not necessary.

Also, China.

Well Ghosen's other problems aside... while he may have been a fan of EV's, his execution left something to be desired. It was a bit of a weirdmobile and had bad pack thermal management.

One of the things Elon realized that really pushed things forward was that you had to make EV's practical, performant, affordable, and stylish. Then they'll appeal to the masses as a whole, and not just a tree-hugging[1] segment that's willing to drive something that looks like a bug to save the environment.

[1] I don't use that term pejoratively, and happily count myself amongst those who think trees are pretty darn cool...

 

[replicant]

Without Tesla, the industry would have stayed making ICE for as long as possible.

Without a strong, ambitious EV leader, the industry would have stayed making ICE for as long as possible. I don't believe nothing would have happen without Tesla.

EV make too much sense, economically, geopolitically, environmentally, financially, etc. We would have wasted some years without Tesla as the main force, but things would have changed.

 

[Usain]

Dude, just wow. Do you know why the Standard Oil monopoly was broken up?

"In Standard Oil Co. of New Jersey v. United States (1911), the Supreme Court unanimously upheld a lower court's ruling and ruled that the Standard Oil Trust was a monopoly that illegally restrained trade in violation of the Sherman Antitrust Act."​

Please tell us how Tesla is illegally restaining trade? Otherwise, this claim is as close to wrong as is possible to be. Tesla is ENCOURAGING trade, not restraining it.

Yegads.

I'm not saying Tesla would become an illegal monopoly.

 

[Nocturnal]

Without a strong, ambitious EV leader, the industry would have stayed making ICE for as long as possible. I don't believe nothing would have happen without Tesla.

EV make too much sense, economically, geopolitically, environmentally, financially, etc. We would have wasted some years without Tesla as the main force, but things would have changed.

That isn't the claim though. "EVs wouldn't be a thing without Tesla".

The claim is that Tesla greatly accelerated the transition, which is an accurate claim. We would be 5-10 years further behind if Tesla had never existed.

 

[madodel]

Maybe you should read the forum on a smartphone. Smartphones that would never have existed without Apple, obviously

You brought up Who Killed the Electric car, but then missed all that Musk has done to drag the other automakers to produce EVs despite the FUD and manuevering to kill off EVs by the petroleum monopolies. Where have you been for the past 15 years? Had the scumbags at Exxon, BP, and Toyota not considered Tesla an imminent failure they wouldn't have treated it like a joke in the beginning. Musk couldn't be bought off like Ford and GM were. As to AAPL it made the Smart Phone popular and made Apple into the largest business in the world and myself and others a ton of money. Your not being able to comprehend that does not bode well for your future investments. Next you'll be talking about how great cigarettes are.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I think the point was about "refuel" time though. I have no doubt that the towing capability is is quite good, but unfortunately an EV cannot yet hold a candle to being able to completely refuel in 5 minutes.

Yah. Depends on how you travel. We specifically look for a 50 kw FLO charger at lunch so we can have a nice relaxed lunch and doggy walk. Everybody travels different.

And generally speaking, at least when I was driving a gasser 7 years ago, a fuel stop when pulling a trailer was never just 5 minutes.

To each his own.

 

[Madmolecule]

Visual confirmation of the gigapress in Austin being assembled for CT. Designer on record last week saying production starts in June. Design finished last year (confirmed on earnings call).

Drama much?

In the same sentence, he said, the design was finished, he added, but we never really stop finishing the design or put our pencils down. the giga press is just another Texas size marketing. Any manufacturer can purchase a gigapress, they just can’t call it by that cool name. But Tesla doesn’t make it or a hold any patents to it. And they have no data on long-term ownership. If you get a dent does it goes straight to the junkyard.
They would never over sell anything, just like the Texas 4680. A game changer, so much that they had to modify the line to mainly produce Ys with other batteries. And who would buy one without a structural battery pack, the cheaper price, the longer range, the more kilowatt density? also to recycle them you must grind the whole pack up and convert back to ore, smart, very smart

 

[Mengy]

Without a strong, ambitious EV leader, the industry would have stayed making ICE for as long as possible. I don't believe nothing would have happen without Tesla.

EV make too much sense, economically, geopolitically, environmentally, financially, etc. We would have wasted some years without Tesla as the main force, but things would have changed.

Again, I disagree.

Historically, disruptive change has always come from outside an industry, from newcomers. The reason for this is established industries become entrenched with what works for them, what is familiar, and what they have invested heavily into. Big behemoth of companies resist big change because it upsets their bread and butter.

You might believe GM would have eventually pushed EV's to the mainstream, but history does not support this belief. Heck, even TODAY companies like GM are late to the party and slow to convert over. You need only look at how many EV's Tesla sells per year compared to legacy OEM's to see how behind they are today, EVEN WITH Tesla pushing them forward.

And you think they would have "eventually" moved to mass EV's of their own accord?

I respectfully disagree. EV only makes sense today because Tesla has explained it to everyone.

 

[KBF]

Honda's high net favourability rating doesn't seem to help sell their cars...

I should have clarified - "in 2022" (referencing the extreme drop in sales from some previous charts we've seen)

 

[GOVA]

Maybe. But excellent is the enemy of good enough. And adapters keep pressure on Tesla from going too stupid on pricing. We know people who use only non tesla charging because of teslas pricing. And up here in the great white north if there were no adapters your route choices become pretty limited, especially if pulling a trailer.

Jmho.

Wat?

 

[replicant]

You brought up Who Killed the Electric car, but then missed all that Musk has done to drag the other automakers to produce EVs despite the FUD and manuevering to kill off EVs by the petroleum monopolies. Where have you been for the past 15 years? Had the scumbags at Exxon, BP, and Toyota not considered Tesla an imminent failure they wouldn't have treated it like a joke in the beginning. Musk couldn't be bought off like Ford and GM were. As to AAPL it made the Smart Phone popular and made Apple into the largest business in the world and myself and others a ton of money. Your not being able to comprehend that does not bode well for your future investments. Next you'll be talking about how great cigarettes are.

"Where have you been for the past 15 years?". Easy to answer: I've lived extremely frugally to put 100% of all my savings in TSLA since 2012. I've been following the EV transition from the beginning, and not missed a thing. Read auto-industry news daily, read everything comments on the investors threads of TMC, read books, researched the transition to EV for a Master degree, listened to every single Rob Mauer episode, etc.

"Next you'll be talking about how great cigarettes are." WTF.

That isn't the claim though. "EVs wouldn't be a thing without Tesla".

The claim is that Tesla greatly accelerated the transition, which is an accurate claim. We would be 5-10 years further behind if Tesla had never existed.

The original claim was "without Tesla, the world would probably still be 100% ICE, and probably still be thinking that an electric car was not a viable possibility".

I strongly disagree, for all the reasons exposed above. But to each his own.

 

[Madmolecule]

Without Tesla, the industry would have stayed making ICE for as long as possible.

ok, also, without selling vaporware, Elon could’ve never made great investments like Twitter.

also, tesla would’ve never happened without California and us tree huggers. If any you thank the Tesla could’ve been started in Texas,ha ha. The rumor here is Tesla is moving their headquarters to Wyoming to find some like-minded individuals. Elon escaped the woke, but Texans aren’t his friends. But he might turn them, once he turns Bocachica into that environmental paradise as promised.

 

[JRP3]

If you get a dent does it goes straight to the junkyard.

How are you so consistently clueless?

 

[2daMoon]

In the same sentence, he said, the design was finished, he added, but we never really stop finishing the design or put our pencils down. the giga press is just another Texas size marketing. Any manufacturer can purchase a gigapress, they just can’t call it by that cool name. But Tesla doesn’t make it or a hold any patents to it. And they have no data on long-term ownership. If you get a dent does it goes straight to the junkyard.
They would never over sell anything, just like the Texas 4680. A game changer, so much that they had to modify the line to mainly produce Ys with other batteries. And who would buy one without a structural battery pack, the cheaper price, the longer range, the more kilowatt density? also to recycle them you must grind the whole pack up and convert back to ore, smart, very smart

Do you think that the gigapress is for the bodywork? If so, that is a misunderstanding. It is for the front and rear castings underneath the body. If you dent those you have bigger problems.

The body is made of flat sheets of (3mm?) stainless steel that will be brake-bent, rather than stamped or cast. Body work on the CT, if necessary, will be fairly simple. The most challenging part will be brushing the welded-in replacement panel to match the finish, which is a well-established process that is simple and quickly performed.

 

[madodel]

Nissan had decades of experimental EV's before Tesla even existed and produced the Nissan Prairie Joy in small quantities using cylindrical lithium ion cells in 1997 and of course the LEAF in 2010. We certainly wouldn't be where we are today without Tesla but EV's were inevitable once battery technology caught up.

Nissan EV Heritage

Nissan Global Newsroom | Latest news, photos and videos. Visit our global newsroom for announcements, photos and videos from Nissan Motor Corporation.

global.nissannews.com

Sorry but the original Leaf was a city car. Just a niche. Nissan has been dragged along with the rest of the industry to make a real car people can travel in. Where is the Nissan Supercharger network? Why don't they make an EV as good as any Tesla model with all this experience? Toyota has had what 25 years of experience with their Prius electric drivetrain and their "coming soon" EVs are crap according to the reviews I've read. Nissan certainly proved there was a market for EVs but it was Tesla that made the EV a desired product.

 

[bkp_duke]

In the same sentence, he said, the design was finished, he added, but we never really stop finishing the design or put our pencils down. the giga press is just another Texas size marketing. Any manufacturer can purchase a gigapress, they just can’t call it by that cool name. But Tesla doesn’t make it or a hold any patents to it. And they have no data on long-term ownership. If you get a dent does it goes straight to the junkyard.
They would never over sell anything, just like the Texas 4680. A game changer, so much that they had to modify the line to mainly produce Ys with other batteries. And who would buy one without a structural battery pack, the cheaper price, the longer range, the more kilowatt density? also to recycle them you must grind the whole pack up and convert back to ore, smart, very smart

Lie much? Anyone familiar with Tesla's KNOWS that they are constantly evolving. From month to month they are NEVER built the same.

Do you have proof that the CT with structural pack is not happening? Source please.

Dent = straight to junkyard? You are an idiot and clearly have no idea how a car like this is built. You replace the affected panel (and don't even have to paint!!!)


Take your drivel elsewhere, your garbage won't pass the sniff test here.

 

[jw934]

More charts

Found the source. Original chart is from Ark Invest Oct 24, 2022 newsletter:
#339: Tesla Could Expand Its Addressable Market Ten-Fold By Cutting The Cost Of An Electric Vehicle In Half, & More

Summary of article: Tesla Could Expand Its Addressable Market 10-fold from 5% at $60,000 MSRP to 50% at ~$30,000, based on 2021 data.

Ark said data came from GoodCarBadCar.Net, but I was unable to locate that.
In any case, here is a higher resolution version of that chart if you want to look up TAM for current prices of Tesla models and options.

 

[wtlloyd]

In the same sentence, he said, the design was finished, he added, but we never really stop finishing the design or put our pencils down. the giga press is just another Texas size marketing. Any manufacturer can purchase a gigapress, they just can’t call it by that cool name. But Tesla doesn’t make it or a hold any patents to it. And they have no data on long-term ownership. If you get a dent does it goes straight to the junkyard.
They would never over sell anything, just like the Texas 4680. A game changer, so much that they had to modify the line to mainly produce Ys with other batteries. And who would buy one without a structural battery pack, the cheaper price, the longer range, the more kilowatt density? also to recycle them you must grind the whole pack up and convert back to ore, smart, very smart

Strawman arguments, so much so that there isn't anyone on this forum who needs an explanation of why your statements are hyperbole.
I will continue to disagree but this is the only time I'll bother to explain why.
Enjoy your day.