I *LOVE* back of the napkin, rough estimates, without getting stuck in the weeds with thousands of details. Mostly to give me a feel for where things might be going. But, to view things like that it is necessary to take off the blinders. In other words, the glaring fault here is that you are using broad generalities to model a very narrow, very specific thing, auto revenues without FSD, without energy and without any other additive revenues and profits. When modelling uncertainty with broad general models like this, it actually helps to throw everything into the model because winners and losers might tend to balance out. In the end, no model looking out 7 years is ever going to be correct and the percentage of time it will be wildly incorrect, is high.
I think if you continue to have a dim view of Tesla's future energy prospects, FSD earnings, robotics, etc, you might as well just sell now and give up on Tesla ever offering superior returns again. I remain invested because I see something very special about the manner in which Elon runs his companies and I have more certainty about that than I could ever have while modelling auto profits more than a year out, or the P/E assigned to those at any given point in time. You seem to be trying to look at TSLA more like a story of a car maker who does well. I see more, much more. Time will tell.
