Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Skryll]

I'd argue that Tesla has made the distinctions between vehicle size-segments blurry with a lot of holes.
Two recent anecdotes: A friend of mine was considering both the Model Y and the Acura MDX to replace old minivan. He ended up choosing the MDX (a full-sized SUV) because the Model Y, at $69,000 (with 7 seats), was a bit too expensive. Another friend recently sold his minivan and purchased a Model Y. I myself replaced my compact hatchback with a Model 3, a mid-sized car.

The limited size options offered by Tesla are causing customers to reconsider their priorities in a vehicle.

Here's California data to support my claim:
View attachment 904828

"Compact SUV" sales have declined by 17% since 2019, but overall vehicle sales have declined by 20% in the same period. This indicates that the "Compact SUV" segment has slightly increased in proportion, despite Model Y drawing a lot of customers away to "Luxury Compact SUV" segment. A large portion of 84% growth in "Luxury Compact SUV" (driven by Model Y) must have come from other size segments.
The addressable market of Model 3 and Y is much larger than most people realize.

More annecdotes:
2016 us, two adults two children sometimes shuttling friends or the two grandparents replace our Honda Odyssey Minivan with Tesla Model X six seat. Storage space feels less, and one seat less than we had, but all the other positives outweighed the balance by far.
2020 cousin with two adults one child did test drive model 3 and still buys his Honda civic, based on initial cost. My hint that he could just finance it with Tesla shares appreciating during lifetime of car was dismissed, as was general maintenance cost and time savings.
2023 road trip with same cousin in model x, without spouse and kids. He likes it, but wonders how much all those charging stops as short as they were add up to. And talks about since he is soon going to be a two adults two person family that the 7-seat model y seems too cramped and he is going to get a gas minivan instead, and that the hybrids are said to be not as good as the pure gas cars. 2023. SMH

Looking around me there are still a lot of the soccer moms oversized suv driving around for which there just is no replacement if you think you do need the interior space. Some hope for Vivian R1S there? Can't wait for Tesla to make a minivan replacement

 

[jerry33]

I grew up on a party line. Two longs and a short.

For those who didn't grow up with party lines, watch the movie "Pillow Talk". Pretty much explains everything.

 

[Thekiwi]

Yes, on numerous occasions over the past year. Elon introduced the topic last March:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "Working on Master Plan Part 3" / Twitter | Mar 17, 2022​

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@DoctorJack16 Main Tesla subjects will be scaling to extreme size, which is needed to shift humanity away from fossil fuels, and AI. But I will also Include sections about SpaceX, Tesla and The Boring Company." / Twitter | Mar 21, 2022​

He spoke about it in an interview: Elon Musk talks battery scale at TED2022 | Apr 14, 2022

Elon tweeted this on Aug 10, 2022:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@Jason Coming soon. Part 3 is about scaling sustainable energy at a civilizational level to enable a bright future for Earth." / Twitter​

Elon also tweeted this on Oct 2, 2022:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@DoctorJack16 Master Plan (mé·nage à) Trois is all about tonnage" / Twitter​

I am biased (because I want it to happen)….but I think Elon’s personal financial situation makes the odds of Elon proposing a TSLA acquisition of the boring company as at least a small possibility as part of the investor day presentation. A sale of the Boring Company to Tesla would give Elon enough cash to clear the debt at the blue bird company and setting that on solid long term ground. Obviously merging Tesla & Boring Company will provide ample resources for the latter to advance its projects, and the former an additional product line it was already quite integrated in with.

(Although I am not sure about whether Elon would legally be allowed to propose this at investor day where he is acting as CEO of Tesla - perhaps he would need to do it at a separate presentation speaking as owner of the boring company, as he I assume would have to recuse himself from the evaluation process at Tesla for whether an acquisition should be done)

 

[Prunesquallor]

Zack Kirkhorn sold 3750 shares @ $193. Must have needed some petty cash. He still has ~200,000 shares.

 

[Ogre]

When I programmed I would always guesstimate a conservative time frame assuming lots of last minute "can you change this?" and then add 50% so I'd come in early and people would either appreciate what I did or tell me that even though it was what they asked for it wasn't what they really needed. Musk appears to always assume no hurdles and then subtracts 50% so everyone is disappointed. And still he can't make enough cars to meet demand.

Assuming zero progress is just as wrong headed as assuming it’ll be “finished” with V11.

The fundamental difference between perpetually optimistic people and perpetually pessimistic people is the optimists get invited to parties.

 

[Nocturnal]

Zack Kirkhorn sold 3750 shares @ $193. Must have needed some petty cash. He still has ~200,000 shares.

He needed some beer money for the weekend.

 

[Electroman]

Hey,
Did you know Missy Cummings left NHTSA?
POLITICO Pro: Missy Cummings, target of Tesla ire, to depart NHTSA

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622980685500755969

God riddance. She was a troll tweeting unfounded negative stuff on Tesla before she joined NHTSA. But haven’t seen her tweet anything since.

 

[juanmedina]

What is she talking about? I guess her short is not going so well:

 

[Krugerrand]

What is she talking about? I guess her short is not going so well:

First issue is she has a ghost in her garage. Second issue is she’s having a bad hair day. And thirdly, she’s either paid to talk nonsense or she’s stupid - I don’t know which. ‍ I’m leaning toward the latter because bad hair. Orrrrr, she needs to ask for a raise from the goonies for a better hairdresser.

Edit: I feel that might have been mean spirited. On her part. Okay, on my part too.

 

[Ogre]

What is she talking about? I guess her short is not going so well:

An acquaintance is a huge GM fan, had reservations for the LRYIQ and craps on Tesla non-stop. He would make up stories like her “Windows rolling down” story, his were crazier. He would repeat stories about how a friend had FSD wake up in the middle of the night and drive into walls. I don’t quite get why people feel the urge to invent crazy nonsense.

Alternative theory: Her car knows and it’s angry. Does she really think she can say the things she says about Tesla and it wouldn’t come back around? She’s lucky it doesn’t drive into walls like that other guy’s car does.


Humor aside… she drives a Tesla in spite of whatever silly theories she spouts. Solid chance she drew the short straw and is just playing the “Tesla Bear” on TV. Not all of these analysts are actually invested in the tripe they pedal.

 

[Prunesquallor]

God riddance. She was a troll tweeting unfounded negative stuff on Tesla before she joined NHTSA. But haven’t seen her tweet anything since.

She gave a speech where she flamed Elon , but when I posted a link, I got a 3-day timeout.

She’s now Professor of Robotics and AI at George Mason University.

 

[rsm287]

Oh they may understand what the quarterly #'s mean. They don't understand the much bigger picture of what the products, technology, future landscape, etc... mean. They are very myopic. Their complete miss of the Tesla Energy potential for years now is only one such example...

They reason by analogy and not from first principles....

No other company has scaled up manufacturing of a large complex product at a CAGR of over 50% for a decade, so they don't believe Tesla can do it.

No other company has sold anywhere near 20 million cars a year, so they don't believe Tesla can do it.

And so on...

Meanwhile, Tesla is doing it.

In the decade between 2012 and 2022, Tesla grew vehicle deliveries from 2,650 to 1.31M - an average CAGR of about 85%. I believe they can continue to grow at an average annual rate of 50% or more for the next 7 years.

Looking forward to March 1st to see how Tesla plan to scale to extreme size for both vehicles and energy storage!

 

[Curt Renz]

The Street - after the close:
Here Are the Top 3 Best Selling Cars in America's Biggest Market

 

[Hiline]

The Street - after the close:
Here Are the Top 3 Best Selling Cars in America's Biggest Market

You just need to be in California for an hour to see how dominant Tesla is here. Now if only Texas would allow direct sales, the day Model Y tops the charts in that state would be near...

 

[TN Mtn Man]

We should expect the $199.98 close on Friday, no?

$299.98

 

[jerry33]

You just need to be in California for an hour to see how dominant Tesla is here. Now if only Texas would allow direct sales, the day Model Y tops the charts in that state would be near...

I doubt there would be much difference. There’s no problem with purchasing a Tesla in Texas, other than it can’t be done at a Tesla Gallery. Because most Tesla sales are done online the sales at Tesla stores are just a small percentage (no idea how small). Texans pick up their car at a service centre just the same as elsewhere.

 

[Hiline]

I doubt there would be much difference. There’s no problem with purchasing a Tesla in Texas, other than it can’t be done at a Tesla Gallery. Because most Tesla sales are done online the sales at Tesla stores are just a small percentage (no idea how small). Texans pick up their car at a service centre just the same as elsewhere.

Ah maybe I misunderstood the situation. Can you pick up from a service center in Texas or would you have to pick up from another state?

 

[jerry33]

Ah maybe I misunderstood the situation. Can you pick up from a service center in Texas or would you have to pick up from another state?

In Texas. It’s always been that way. I picked up my first Tesla in early 2013. The only difference is paperwork, a pain for Tesla but not for the customer.

 

[Hiline]

In Texas. It’s always been that way. I picked up my first Tesla in early 2013. The only difference is paperwork, a pain for Tesla but not for the customer.

That's good to know! How common are Tesla cars in Texas these days?

 

[jerry33]

That's good to know! How common are Tesla cars in Texas these days?

Real common. Yesterday when I went to get groceries I saw five and I wasn’t particularly looking. Once the CT ships in volume, there will be too many to count.