RIVN is up more.No one noticing that we are up almost 6% or no one wants to be that guy/girl?
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Thank you very much
Battery Recycling Operations Already Profitable: JB Straubel
It will be some time before Redwood Materials is profitable as a whole, but Straubel notes that battery recycling in and of itself is already a money maker.insideevs.com
Joe F
Disruption is hard.
That's because you're (probably) selecting the "menu" in the upper right corner. Scroll down from the home page to the Model S and pick "custom order."
Maybe I missed it, but by what year do we assume robotaxi advantage and use?
I think I know what you mean.
Ultimately, it is about overall car market share of course, but EV market share is meaningful as a proxy for the growth of EV competitors.
Total market share of Tesla = EV market share of Tesla * total market share of electric vehicles
So, if Tesla doesn't command a larger EV market share going forward, this means the competitors are catching up on EV production.
Did you not read your own link?
MobilEye is bragging about being able to query their 25 years worth of data in the cloud. Tesla can query their fleet. MobilEye doesn’t have that capability.
While it would be best in the short term for them to not sell EVs, it’s pretty clear in the long term if they don’t they are toast.
They are more or less damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
Tesla and Mobileye were partnered back in the day before breaking that partnership. Mobileye is the originator of this and has already been collecting video clips and other visual data for those 25 years, Tesla is collecting data and trying to build back what was lost when that partnership was broken.
Mobileye says at this point they mostly break down collected data into small packets of semantics, only what they now need. The video clips etc there for building out object detection, and they already have massive troves of that.
Mobileye REM™ | Road Experience Management
Mobileye’s Road Experience Management™ (REM) is the basis of a highly accurate, constantly refreshed HD map built for AVs that can benefit driver-assist tech and road maintenance.
It's not unique, and who knows what NVIDIA has or whether they just license out Mobileye's dataset
The Nasdaq has lost ground the last few weeks, TSLA was stable. That’s a ‘relative run up’.
Maybe investor day?
At this point it seems like the hype is so high running into it I’m kind of wondering if we’re not going to dip a bit. It’s going to take a pretty big reveal to surpass expectations.
I think Tesla is going to have a pretty rad announcement on Investor Day. So does everyone else. So why no run up into it? If everyone is expecting big news Wednesday and we’re seeing this kind of lethargic action, what kind of reaction are we going to get if Tesla’s big news is more strategic and long term? Seems like the market reacts poorly to Teslas more strategic meetings and Investors Day might well end up being more like Battery Day or AI Day then something with the sort of structured products and targets announcements Wall Street loves.
Maybe I harp on this idea too much. Temper your expectations.
I do wish people would say something more than just post an embed. This is what I end up seeing much of the time after an embed post scrolls past.
My screen shows the content of the tweet. Not sure what the technical issue is.
I won't complain if it's in the next two weeks.
I'm hoping it's in April once Q1/2023 delivery numbers are out...with a run-up leading up to the P&D report. Q1 is historically a rough quarter the past few years, hoping for a breakout to lead into a strong 2023 delivery year.
I think the best option is to post a screenshot of the tweet and then hide the actual tweet URL in spoiler tags. That way people can click through if they wish, but everyone can see the content (even if blocked etc.)
Or people are finally remembering that it's usually a sell the news deal with Tesla? If so then...
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Scale will come with new emergent properties for the EV market. The fact that the rest of the market is currently growing EV production faster than Tesla does not necessarily indicate that this will still be happening one or two orders of magnitude later. Too many people are extrapolating the recent trend without understanding why it's been happening and why it will probably change.
We have zero conclusive evidence that anybody else besides Tesla is making money on selling EVs yet. Unless and until this changes, other major EV players literally can't afford to continue outpacing Tesla's 50-60% CAGR much longer. If they tried then they'd exponentially increase their losses and go bankrupt. It's that simple. Therefore, it's absurd for the market to be looking at EV market share trends without carefully considering this context.
When Tesla is making 10M vehicles in ~2028, will the rest of the industry make 20M? I really doubt it unless somebody else figures out how to do so profitably even as Tesla ratchets up the pressure on competitors year after year with growing demand, industry-leading economies of scale, and amazing cost optimization. I follow this like a full-time job and I see no sign of Tesla's giant cost and value proposition advantage shrinking for the foreseeable future.
Also, in the last year Tesla's growth rate relative to the everyone else has been temporarily suppressed by two short-term factors:
1) S/X refresh ramp
2) Growth mostly coming from Berlin and Texas both being in low-rate initial production
Superficial EV market share analysis misses this context too. Shanghai and Fremont have been putting out pretty close to maximum capacity for the last year, and so there was nowhere for major growth to come from. Now we're getting close to what should be the steepest part of the ramp for Berlin and Texas. This means the CAGR should accelerate in the next two years or so.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
