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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
As a percentage of the overall auto market, Tesla was only at around 2% market share in 2022 (1.31 million out of a total of 66.1 million) and I think they are well positioned to grow during a recession.
Legacy OEMs are more likely to slow their EV growth plans during a recession, cutting back on expenditure and reducing investments. They are less likely to be rushing to sell more EVs (that they don't make any money on), which will lead to even longer wait times for their EV models.
Anywhere from around 29 to 73% of consumers (depending on which country they live in) are looking to buy an EV as their next vehicle. Of course a lot of consumers will delay buying a new car during a recession, but I suspect there will still be enough buyers to exceed the supply of EVs. Tesla has more pricing power and more production of EVs than any of the other OEMs and so they will be best positioned to capitalise on this and grow their market share when others are struggling.
During a recession, Tesla may experience a greater decline in material costs, which leads to lower COGS and allows them to offer even lower prices to consumers.
Due to the price elasticity of demand for vehicles, there is a non-linear relationship between a reduction in price and increase in demand. A 10% reduction in price from $50K to $45K increases the addressable market from about 7% to 14% of the overall market (potentially a 100% increase in demand).
Tesla has many other levers they can use if necessary.
Don't forget Tesla Energy:
Hardware - Megapacks
Software - Autobidder
driveteslacanada.ca
Hardware - Megapacks
Software - Autobidder
Genex takes delivery of all 40 Tesla Megapacks for Bouldercombe project in Australia
Genex Power has received all 40 Megapack batteries for the 50MW/100MWh Bouldercombe project in Queensland, Australia. The arrival of the batteries is an important milestone in the company’s first big battery project. The delivery means Genex [...]
driveteslacanada.ca
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
Tesla Fremont Factory continues to receive refinements and upgrades
Tesla continues to make refinements to the Fremont Factory's production lines in preparation for Model 3 and Model Y improvements.
www.teslarati.com
^Articles like this demonstrate Tesla's constant push to improve. It's impressive - they don't just maintain, but upgrade and re-tool (at Fremont: 5x in the last month alone).
Does anyone know how often Ford or Toyota upgrade/re-tool? I don't have a comparison - the few small manufacturers I'm personally familiar with maybe upgrade once every 2-4 years... But different industries, so probably not comparable.
This constant improvement - lots of little changes, and cultivating awareness, is how you get massive improvements - things that seem small all come together to take a big leap forward.
T-bonds and online savings accounts - I collected my portfolio gain q4 last year where I was fortunate enough to profit 40% of my total investment over a three year period. I bought most of my stock during the COVID panic decline which included companies such as F, XOM, PFE.
I did lose on a few, but those were companies like Duke energy and Verizon. With the money I cashed out I bought a Tesla Model X and am making about the same per year in interest as I was with the dividends being paid out by the stocks. Only reason I sold is because the economy is indicating a recessing in the next year, so I am just timing the market as such.
Not investment advice, but it worked for me and I didn't have one stock ownership in TSLA. I was so disgusted with my Model 3 that I couldn't make myself purchase their stock. Now giving the X a try to see if the company has improved before I purchase stocks in the next dip.
Motor Mouth
Member
You really lost credibility with me there. Not sure what you're comparing the M3 ownership experience to, but sounds pretty unrealistic.
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
Q4's are the worst... Little daylight, garbage weather and icy roads, too many work parties...
It's in Tesla's best interest to be open with these numbers - though it looks like they haven't posted fire data since 2021. It's crazy how a huge % of the population still think EV's are more dangerous than freaking gasoline cars that create thousands of microexplosions per second mere feet away from your feet...
Update... that was almost 5 hours ago. Those stocks are all trading now and have recovered much of this morning's losses. A few examples...
This question has been vigorously debated since most to the Glass-Steagall Act was repealed in 1999, showing the most consequential banking de regulation in the US came from a Democrat administration, just as did the act itself come as the FDR administration tried to eradicate the causes of the Great Depression.
The biggest problem with mark to market rules is that they introduce very high volatility in traded assets while making non-traded assets seem more stable. That has consistently proven to be an insurmountable challenge. Faced with repeated banking crises and most acutely the failure of Bankhaus Herstatt the Basel Committee was established to solve the problem:
Deutsche Bank has almost failed a couple of times since then, Swiss Bank Corporation failed and was merged, Credit Swiss has caused havoc and we still had 2008, in which Nobel Prize winners and the entire US mortgage industry behaved badly and nearly brought down the global systems.
So, brilliant as they were (I'm biased but I think they have been) they could not solve mark to market.
Now, back to TSLA. Part of the market to market issue complexity is the stuff of which this thread is built. People here devote inordinate energy and dedicated skill to value TSLA. We rant and rave about algorithm trading, short sellers and the rest. Now imagine a bank properly valuing such an investment! Imagine any volatile, rumor driven market, say, interest rate futures. Imagine properly valuing US Treasury fixed rate securities when nobody actually knows what future rates to be, so cannot actually know whether values are any given thing at any given market price.
We see that dilemma with cryptocurrencies too, of course and those as many others have GAAP solutions that standardize the errors.
So, frankly, after having had one of those Nobel Prize winners teach me market dynamics, and having had a very close look at Basel negotiations I can say definitively "I haven't a clue how to cope with this issue". That is true.
Were it up to me I'd prohibit insured financial institutions from taking and unhedged interest rate risk. I'd then establish Basel 4 style structure to refine credit risk evaluation and restrict types of risk they could accept. In short, I'd return to something quite like Glass-Steagall. Impact, absolutely, but much less opportunity for unrestrained stupidity or fraud.
I don't remember it being too much of an exaggeration. Q1 2019 report had a -1.6 Billion cash flow where Tesla just reduced their cash on hand from 3.87B from q4 2018 to 2.3b after that earning. This was right after a the tax credit phase out part 1 and Tesla closing up shops+taking away S/X overnight production line. Maybe they were not weeks away from BK, but if they miss on two more quarters then it would have been game over by what he said, October of that year. It doesn't take much to annualize the cash flow and calculate how much runway Tesla had left.The example I used was Elon pretending that bankruptcy was close during the Model 3 "manufacturing hell" period. He has tweeted and said this was the case during many interviews.
Recently he has been tweeting about how Twitter is on track to break even this year. He's also been tweeting about how Twitter is doing well because user engagement is up, and other things not relevant to actual revenue. No evidence to back up his claims. Meanwhile there's much evidence that Twitter isn't paying its bills, and that it is profligately running up its legal bills at the same time. Stuff like this.
Twitter faces lawsuits alleging millions in unpaid expenses
Landlords, vendors and others have filed cases against the social media giant, where CEO Musk is trying to cut expenses.www.cbsnews.com
I've also seen reports that Twitter isn't paying Amazon for AWS use. Gruber's imagination regarding the relevant negotiation is pretty funny.
Phony Stark Stiffed Amazon on Twitter’s AWS Bill, So Amazon Threatened to Pull Its Ads
Link to: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/musk-delayed-paying-twitters-amazon-cloud-bill-sparking-ad-threat?rc=jfy0lkdaringfireball.net
Sure. May I suggest a really excellent zero emission startup? With a name like Nikola what could go wrong? ..or maybe just be Lucid.
Most fintechs are to good banks as those two are to Tesla, as just one analogy.
Not sure how anyone could be short going into the CPI print tomorrow. If it comes in cool, combined with the banking system reaching a breaking point, the Fed pivot is all but assured. Even if the CPI print comes in hot, the banking meltdown, which could be about to get much bigger if Credit Suisse is indeed about to collapse, could still force the Feds hand into a pivot.
The amount of money being made by hedge funds right now in the bank stocks from a crisis that I would put a ton of credibility into they themselves causing(by stirring up panic to create a bank run) is just sickening. Zero regulation and accountability here
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Two words: Tony Seba
As close to a crystal ball as can be found. Do a search, spend some time reviewing the information found on YouTube and elsewhere, then do your best to see what the trend is.
The Trend is your Friend.
Edit: removed the ReThinkX link. Here's Tony's YouTube channel
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Paracelsus
Active Member
And just like that, we are drilling again - in Alaska no less. Drill Baby, Drill. Sara Palin tried, but it took Biden to get it across the finish line. Mary led us on an EV path and it didn’t matter:
I am sorry, none of this makes any sense. I think you are trolling at this point. Giving the benefit of the doubt basically ends with that above statement showing a complete lack of understanding.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Not for nothing, but if you had say, bought TSLA and nothing else, during the covid panic low, then sold it all Q4 of last year, you'd have gained not 40%, but roughly 450% to 850% depending exactly when in Q4 you sold.
So when you suggest you're not providing investing advice, that's probably for the best.
Well we hear lots of people who loves the product therefore they buy the stock. This guy hates the product and doesn't buy or understand why would anyone buy the stock. That's fine too. Everyone has different opinions on the matter. Not many people would buy that company's stock if they absolutely hate their product.
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
I'm not sure what your link is about, exactly, but their marketing is blah. Was this supposed to be a testimonial quote?
“It’s not easy to blow my mind. But earlier this week, I sat down and read a research report by RethinkX. I’ve been picking up the pieces of my consciousness ever since. I’m now convinced that I — and you — will probably never buy another car again. Ever.”
— THE MOTLEY FOOL, JUNE 2017
^so, reading research by RethinkX sure didn't help The Motley Fool predict the future very well. What am I missing?
Motor Mouth
Member
To follow his story though, he hated the 3 so he sold the stock ... and immediately bought an X. A bit odd wouldn't you say. If you hated a lower market car from an auto maker, but then bought another car from that same company that costs at least twice as much because - what, you wanted to give it one more chance. I'm staying with it not making a ton of sense. And awaiting my downvote from the accused because that seems to be way he/she operates.
MartinAustin
Active Member
I was actually sad to find the Cybertruck only has 5 seatbelts and is no longer a 6-occupant vehicle, and also has a 2nd touchscreen for rear passengers like the S+X. Less of the wirey, lean & productive worktruck I was hoping for. The rear touchscreen must surely have serious costs that would be better left out in some customers's situations
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