Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

I'm not sure what your link is about, exactly, but their marketing is blah. Was this supposed to be a testimonial quote?

“It’s not easy to blow my mind. But earlier this week, I sat down and read a research report by RethinkX. I’ve been picking up the pieces of my consciousness ever since. I’m now convinced that I — and you — will probably never buy another car again. Ever.”
— THE MOTLEY FOOL, JUNE 2017

^so, reading research by RethinkX sure didn't help The Motley Fool predict the future very well. What am I missing?

TBH, I haven't spent much time on that site. Mostly have watched the videos on YouTube. Sorry about the link if it wasn't helpful.

This is probably a better place to start.

https://www.youtube.com/@tonyseba

The "Great Disruption" is what Seba uses to describe the current trend toward renewables and how this will disrupt many long-term entities in the Energy, Automotive, Labor, and Economic sectors.

This is based upon research on past disruptions going back a century or so that illustrate the S-curves that happen when the new disrupts the old.

Tesla is strategically poised to reap the benefits of this Great Disruption better than most other companies.

As a parallel, Ark Invest has based their investment strategy upon similar data.

​

 

[Singuy]

To follow his story though, he hated the 3 so he sold the stock ... and immediately bought an X. A bit odd wouldn't you say. If you hated a lower market car from an auto maker, but then bought another car from that same company that costs at least twice as much because - what, you wanted to give it one more chance. I'm staying with it not making a ton of sense. And awaiting my downvote from the accused because that seems to be way he/she operates.

Sounds like a case of some wanting to love a product because everyone around him raves about it but the 3 was missing key features he couldn't live without like a front dash or a more luxury interior at that price point. Who knows, but a Model 3 is definitely for people who are more open minded and progressive. People are willing to let go of some features they are comfortable with for features that are more novel like OTA or self driving. The S/X was closer to a more traditional car until they went stalkless +yoke...lol.

 

[Dikkie Dik]

TBH, I haven't much time on that site. Mostly have watched the videos on YouTube. Sorry about the link if it wasn't helpful.

This is probably a better place to start.

https://www.youtube.com/@tonyseba

Tony Seba also has a website where most of his work can be downloaded for free.

Highly recommended.

Tony Seba, Author, Thought Leader and SV Entrepreneur

Tony Seba is a Lecturer in Entrepreneurship, Disruption and Clean Energy at Stanford University, a serial Silicon Valley entrepreneur and author.

tonyseba.com

 

[Skryll]

Well we hear lots of people who loves the product therefore they buy the stock. This guy hates the product and doesn't buy or understand why would anyone buy the stock. That's fine too. Everyone has different opinions on the matter. Not many people would buy that company's stock if they absolutely hate their product

For others that may be so, IMHO this is not what we are looking at here. But I digress, I can just block and move on. Too many red flags to spend time on.

 

[Singuy]

For others that may be so, IMHO this is not what we are looking at here. But I digress, I can just block and move on. Too many red flags to spend time on.

Once in a while we have a care bear who asks these questions, like why isn't Tesla a hype stock or whatever. It's probably impossible to change that person's mind however it's always great to educate all the new lurkers who passes by this forum daily. Having us discuss why we are bulls by having these debates are beneficial imo even though it's kind of painful.

 

[MP3Mike]

The rear touchscreen must surely have serious costs that would be better left out in some customers's situations

Probably way less than $200. If it is like the Model S&X, it is just a second screen on the MCU. So, the only costs are the touchscreen and a cable. (If they use the same screen as the S&X, that could really drive the costs down.)

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Not sure how anyone could be short going into the CPI print tomorrow. If it comes in cool, combined with the banking system reaching a breaking point, the Fed pivot is all but assured. Even if the CPI print comes in hot, the banking meltdown, which could be about to get much bigger if Credit Suisse is indeed about to collapse, could still force the Feds hand into a pivot.

The amount of money being made by hedge funds right now in the bank stocks from a crisis that I would put a ton of credibility into they themselves causing(by stirring up panic to create a bank run) is just sickening. Zero regulation and accountability here

I can't claim a very good grasp of the business workings of these banking institutions. Does anyone have an opinion on which ones might be getting unfairly lumped in with the SVBs of the world? I'm specifically looking at Charles Schwab. I don't follow them, but I've been using them for over 25 years and the only complaint I've had was when they found the 32 grand they accidently misplaced in one of my accounts. Seriously, they seem like a solid company.

 

[UncaNed]

You really lost credibility with me there. Not sure what you're comparing the M3 ownership experience to, but sounds pretty unrealistic.

Some people are really losing credibility with me here. Not sure why everybody keeps feeding the trolls I have on Ignore.

 

[JRP3]

The rear touchscreen must surely have serious costs that would be better left out in some customers's situations

How much do you think a small touchscreen and a few feet of wiring costs Tesla? $50-$100?

 

[generalenthu]

Great context here @unk45. Agree with the spirit of everything you say on how to make banking better. And a ton of stuff I had no idea about!

One minor quibble is this bit though.

Were it up to me I'd prohibit insured financial institutions from taking and unhedged interest rate risk.

There needs to be someone who takes this maturity transformation risk. It's core to how the economy functions, because for the consumer and businesses loan demand is almost always longer term (auto, mortgage) while excess savings are there for a short term until they go into a longer term investment.

If we don't let banks do this job, there is actually little need for insurance and any other entity that does this job will eventually resemble a bank and perhaps needs a bailout from time to time.

As a former practitioner, a lot of this seems to come back to hedge accounting. This is a bit removed from my expertise, but my understanding is HTM securities cannot get hedge treatment and any effort to hedge them becomes punitive for your capital ratios. I think this was the catch22 SVB got stuck in. They moved their book to HTM mostly in early 2022 when inflation was never expected to materialize. And if so, most of the blame for the crisis is with the regulators and not SVB mgmt.

Anyways, the relevance to TSLA in all this is - Elon trying to buy SVB or a portion of it and run it with first principles is not going to happen. A lot of the rules especially around MTM and what can or cannot be hedged feels a bit arbitrary/ outdated even after looking at them for over a decade. It's mostly convention and sometimes you push r the regulation from one side and something else gives. And all these happened in the days since Elon left PayPal. He has been a busy man and I doubt he kept up with reams of new bank regulation that passed between then and now which makes banking pretty unattractive as a business. I think it's going to be more so after this fiasco.

 

[dm28997]

11.3.1 is going out now from Twitter read.
I don't have it as yet.

Ha ha. My short sentence should have been from reading Twitter. No edit available

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I was actually sad to find the Cybertruck only has 5 seatbelts and is no longer a 6-occupant vehicle, and also has a 2nd touchscreen for rear passengers like the S+X. Less of the wirey, lean & productive worktruck I was hoping for. The rear touchscreen must surely have serious costs that would be better left out in some customers's situations

I'm also disappointed the sixth seat got DQed. We're a family of six including the dog and with only five seats, I'm not even sure which kid will go unbuckled. I also hope that rear screen is removable because if not, that will be the first thing that gets damaged.

 

[MARKM3]

To follow his story though, he hated the 3 so he sold the stock ... and immediately bought an X. A bit odd wouldn't you say. If you hated a lower market car from an auto maker, but then bought another car from that same company that costs at least twice as much because - what, you wanted to give it one more chance. I'm staying with it not making a ton of sense. And awaiting my downvote from the accused because that seems to be way he/she operates.

There was no need to reply, you stated your opinion like I stated mine. There are millions of people in the country and my decisions do not have to make sense to you, and neither yours to me. But I will explain in more detail as you wish.

I bought a lemon 3. The car had many issues the service center couldn't fix, including unacceptable rattles and build quality issues with the car being out of service for many months waiting on parts. I had to part ways with it for that as the main reason. The other was I just felt like it was too basic and limiting.

The X is the only desirable car Tesla makes for me at the moment. The 3/Y feel too cheap and lack too many basic car features at their price points. I want a screen in front of the wheel. One screen is just too minimalistic to me. I was in the market for a BMW IX, Mercedes EQS, Audi E-Tron, or Model X. The Model X has the best design, in my opinion. It has the best SC network and It's been 5 years since my Model 3. I figured why not give the Model X a go, see if Tesla's service has improved and their car quality.

I do like the brand and I do like the product. Everyone deserves a second chance, and that is what I am giving Tesla. But I was very close to getting the IX.

 

[JRP3]

I also hope that rear screen is removable because if not, that will be the first thing that gets damaged.

You could make a cover for it.

 

[oldTAVguy]

How much do you think a small touchscreen and a few feet of wiring costs Tesla? $50-$100?

More like $35 to $50 in bulk.

 

[Electroman]

It has taken deliveries and inducted the EDVs into its fleet, with over 10 million packages delivered using the vans

10 million packages delivered? how is that metric relevant? Give me miles driven or number of trucks delivered or something equivalent.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm also disappointed the sixth seat got DQed. We're a family of six including the dog and with only five seats, I'm not even sure which kid will go unbuckled. I also hope that rear screen is removable because if not, that will be the first thing that gets damaged.

IDK if it helps or not, but the cab at least opens to the bed so I'm expecting to be able to throw dogs back there and give them HVAC. I'll probably have to set something up to secure them seatbelt style.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

You could make a cover for it.

Carbon Fiber would match nicely

 

[Gigapress]

Once in a while we have a care bear who asks these questions, like why isn't Tesla a hype stock or whatever. It's probably impossible to change that person's mind however it's always great to educate all the new lurkers who passes by this forum daily. Having us discuss why we are bulls by having these debates are beneficial imo even though it's kind of painful.

I agree. Although we don't want the forum to devolve into circular rehashing of the same old arguments, it's still important to engage with bears who stop by. Only those who actually work for TMC know the actual statistics, but if this forum is like most then the lurkers and occasional visitors greatly outnumber the active posters.

 

[cusetownusa]

IDK if it helps or not, but the cab at least opens to the bed so I'm expecting to be able to throw dogs back there and give them HVAC. I'll probably have to set something up to secure them seatbelt style.

Last I read that isn’t a thing with the CT.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634225807282540545

I have never thought about getting a pickup truck but I really want one of these if the price is right. Only deal breaker (besides price) is that it may be too big for my garage.

And I was in the camp that thought it was completely ridiculous when they first revealed it.