Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVMeister]

An interesting video with Joe Tegtmeyer (hosted by Herbert Ong) where Joe dives into Gigafactory construction.

 

[Singuy]

No, I'm not saying it's easier. But the market cap comparisons specifically are going to be misleading: gaining some small traction as an EV startup these days gets you a way higher valuation than it would have in 2013. So a $1B EV company today is likely nowhere near as far along as a $1B EV company in 2013.

I was not comparing market cap but comparing execution. I didn't mention any company's market cap.

 

[petit_bateau]

This reminded me that some time back I read about China plans to open a rail connection to the EU that bypassed Russian states. It would be another path to deliver Teslas to that part of the world in addition to shipping via the Suez Canal.

Looking forward to seeing this ramp up of rail shipments continue to grow, because there is still that demand problem to address. Tesla can't deliver them fast enough to satisfy the demand.

Edit: Found this graphic for Show-and-Tell...

The various southern routes are now running - if you look back past recent items on the Energy News thread you'll see I've including some service announcements. For some reason people don't want to cross Russia. There are EVs being shipped on that route but so far I think they are not Tesla, at least there has been no positive ident of Teslas as yet.

 

[oldTAVguy]

BYD will be fine as long as they can ensure the motors and batteries short out just after warranty is up. That's what we call precision engineering.

It's amazing what software can do.

 

[Krugerrand]

Comparisons of "when Tesla was doing this in 2013..." or "when Tesla had this market cap..." seem like apples and oranges.

Absolutely a poor comparison mostly because in a much tougher environment Tesla performed gobs better than any subsequent EV startup at the same business place in time, in a now much easier environment.

Such a comparison just shows how special Tesla was, is, and continues to be and how substandard, inadequate, and hopeless every other company has been since. Even those who begged, borrowed and stole former Tesla employees suck.

 

[T@oo]

How you get decimal complaints is beyond me out of 10k cars. So the number maybe percentages and not actually number of complains.

7 complains on 25k cars is 2.8 complains per 10k cars where I live. Metric cars and metric complains.

 

[durkie]

I was not comparing market cap but comparing execution. I didn't mention any company's market cap.

That's true -- you didn't, but it's something I've seen thrown around here recently.

I think my point about shifting standards still is relevant though: regardless of macro issues (not like we don't have our own these days), the "minimum viable product" for an EV is leagues more refined now than it was previously. Like people are wondering what Rivian is going to do for its self-driving capabilities, which wasn't even a realistic phrase to utter in 2013.

 

[loquitur]

High-density passenger transport was discussed in Master Plan Part Deux. As far as we know this is still the plan.



Reasoning by analogy to assume that diesel to electric transition for busses will be a one-for-one substitution will lead to wrong conclusions. Unfortunately, this is exactly what most people are doing, including transit planners and policymakers.

The major portion of the cost structure of traditional busses is the driver compensation and the operation and maintenance costs of the diesel powertrain, both of which favor having a smaller number of larger busses in order to exploit economies of scale. Autonomous electric busses, with zero driver expenses and perhaps 75% lower O&M costs would change this calculus in favor of smaller minibusses/vans with:

• higher percentage of seats actually occupied
• no center aisle wasting space and materials
• greater number of stops/stations in the service network yet more express-like service
• coverage further out away from the urban core deeper into the suburbs

Boring company is a huge wildcard in predicting where this is headed. If you believe it will succeed and scale quickly, then “public mass transit” might actually change to being mostly single or dual passenger minicars with some mix of larger sizes up to perhaps 16 passengers per vehicle max. More than 16 is probably unnecessary for a major route served by one or more Loop trunk lines, because that’s already sufficient to beat every train line in existence, and that’s not hyperbole.

In 2019, Elon mentioned a 1-second headway as being feasible, which would imply 57k passengers per hour per lane with a 16-pax van. I think 1-second is plausible with autonomous operation and the ridiculously tight control and security of the tunnels. Humans today typically do about 2 or 2.5 seconds between vehicles on highways. Autonomy eliminates about 1 to 1.5 seconds of human reaction time. We can debate a few tenths of a second here and there, but even with 1.5 second headway the numbers still look great.

View attachment 918536

Here’s some rough estimates I’ve done of potential AEV throughput in a Loop compared with high-volume train or bus lines. To a close approximation, Passengers/hour = Passengers/vehicle * Vehicles/hour = Pax/veh * (3600 sec/hr) / (Sec of headway between vehicles)

View attachment 918537

Although a 12-16 passenger robovan would hold about 4x fewer people than a bus, the Loop system more than compensates for this by winning on headway by at least an order of magnitude—if not two orders of magnitude—relative to actual real-world bus lines than usually have at least a few minutes between busses.

Your excellent analysis reminds me that the resizing of passenger loads is contemplated
by Candela of Sweden for passenger ferryboat traffic. They are the Tesla of electric boats;
here is their analysis of how 176-passenger diesel ferries can be replaced much more efficiently
by fleets of 30-passenger ferries. And this all done at a cost of a bus ride, at least for Stockholm:

P-12 - The Fastest Electric Ferry

Meet P-12, the world's fastest electric ferry designed and built in Sweden. Cruise above the surface of water without disrupting the environment. Order now.

candela.com

Where I live (the San Francisco Bay Area) there is a commuter ferry fleet serving areas of poor transportation infrastructure (say Marin county to downtown SF), as well as for people who just
like to go for leisurely rides on the water. I hope this type of downsizing is being contemplated
by the relevant agencies here.

Further (although SF public transportation is increasingly electric via overhead line trolleys, fixed-rail subways, etc.) there are still free-range "rubber tire" routes currently using renewable diesel.
This will start to phase out completely for electric buses in the next few years, but I truly wonder
if SF Muni even thinks beyond one-for-one substitution of these 40- or 60- passenger buses.

 

[Nocturnal]

You might want to study their financial statements. Unless you’re suggesting fraud that ‘literally no one else in the world’ believes their accuracy it does indeed appear that they make money on EV’s. Obviously nit like Tesla does. Obviously it’s not easy to assess each business line. Their busses alone are certainly major profit centers, nit least because of a very high scale in China and in several markets worldwide. Perhaps part of the difficulty is that their car line is successful in China but not so much elsewhere. However, those who examine their vertical integration think they are quite profitable in selling batteries for stationary storage and BEV use, plus small batteries for smartphone and the like.

Study their financials and you might become another believer that BYD are a financially successful going concern. One need not desire to be a customer to understand that.

If their EVs are profitable then I see no reason why they wouldn't break them out from other lines. The company itself does well, it's their EV business I doubt.

And as mentioned they have paid people to spread lies about Tesla so they are on my naughty list. A company willing to do that would do other shady things.

 

[Xepa777]

That's true -- you didn't, but it's something I've seen thrown around here recently.

I think my point about shifting standards still is relevant though: regardless of macro issues (not like we don't have our own these days), the "minimum viable product" for an EV is leagues more refined now than it was previously. Like people are wondering what Rivian is going to do for its self-driving capabilities, which wasn't even a realistic phrase to utter in 2013.

….that still isn’t a realistic phrase in 2023

 

[Hiline]

….that still isn’t a realistic phrase in 20023

I mean, give it another 18,000 years…

 

[Curt Renz]

Big political donors drown out consumer choice. The negative comments to this tweet are unanimous.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1635767610561249282

Did Elon try to intervene in this Mississippi legislative debate, or was he too busy with Twitter?

 

[Krugerrand]

Did Elon try to intervene in this Mississippi legislative debate, or was he too busy with Twitter?

Why is it Elon’s job to intervene? Can’t other people stand up to the corruption?

 

[insaneoctane]

Why is it Elon’s job to intervene? Can’t other people stand up to the corruption?

We, the people, haven't had a great track record with our elected officials. Sadly, donors have disproportionate influence and politicians often choose them over what's actually good for the constituents. Elon's not the only one, but he does have a megaphone, can have influence and clearly this impacts Tesla. I'm quite disheartened by these decisions...

 

[FreqFlyer]

<iframe width="1691" height="747" src="

" title="Sandy Munro &amp; Cory Steuben On Tesla&#39;s Master Plan Part 3 - Autoline After Hours 639" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Hiline]

Big political donors drown out consumer choice. The negative comments to this tweet are unanimous.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1635767610561249282

I find this bit interesting though:

“H.B. 401 has nothing to say about digital storefronts, where buyers can pick their car from their computer”

Sounds like Mississippi residents can get around this law by selecting from existing inventory.

 

[EldestOyster]

Why is it Elon’s job to intervene? Can’t other people stand up to the corruption?

Outcomes can answer this.

• Was the bill defeated? Then yes, they can stand up to it.
• Was the bill signed into law? Then it seems that no, they can't.

I find the remark about undoing 50 years of progress particularly telling of the mindset down there.

 

[Krugerrand]

We, the people, haven't had a great track record with our elected officials. Sadly, donors have disproportionate influence and politicians often choose them over what's actually good for the constituents. Elon's not the only one, but he does have a megaphone, can have influence and clearly this impacts Tesla. I'm quite disheartened by these decisions...

I agree.

What I didn’t find helpful and rather childish about the original comment was the poke about Elon and Twitter. Entirely uncalled for and the suggestion that Elon is wasting time on unimportant endeavors after having battled so many bad actors on Tesla’s behalf over the years and all that has happened -

Ultimately, Elon’s already done his fair share of fighting for us. Stop expecting him to do more and stop being so bloody judgmental of him. (Directed at the OP and at the general audience.)

 

[jerry33]

We, the people, haven't had a great track record with our elected officials. Sadly, donors have disproportionate influence and politicians often choose them over what's actually good for the constituents.

It’s very seldom that the common good wins out over campaign contributions. Our system is mostly based on purchasing politicians. Our best hope is for people and companies to vote with their wallets and dry up the funds supporting fossil fuels and the dealer network.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Why is it Elon’s job to intervene? Can’t other people stand up to the corruption?

Can't people not be corrupt?