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I didn't see this published in a search, sorry if a repeat.

China has approved driverless ride-hailing. Get ready for Tesla FSD in China? This should be a USA embarrassment if that happens. But maybe they happen together. Wow! (Edit: I forgot about Cruise etc... my brain forgets things that don't really matter). And China's been practicing for the past 3 months. In Beijing no less!

"Previously, safety supervisors were required to be present in the driver’s, passenger’s, or second-row seats during road tests and commercial operations. However, with this new permit, Baidu and Pony.ai are allowed to provide fully driverless rides without a safety supervisor in a 60-square-kilometer area of the Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area."


 
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Norway has been open for deliveries (and quite a lot of them too) both Saturday and Sunday. Seems like years since the last time they've done any significant Sunday deliveries. Seems to indicate that they expect to continue having large deliveries at least for the next week. Not much reason to be open for weekend deliveries if they expect to have fewer cars next week.

They probably won't reach 22Q4 deliveries in 23Q1 but could potentially be best month ever.

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The move to neural nets (from C++ code) for navigation planning should enable big improvements for FSD, notably wrt getting in the appropriate lane in a timely fashion: (better'n'better each build w. more trg data) :D

1679243739690.png
 
Lol.

I’m definitely missing something here. Happy to be the one hearing about something for the first time. Just trying to figure out what that something is.

Now, back to that 8x figure. Batteries cost around $100/kWh to produce today. 8x this is $800/kWh. A 2013 Model S had a 85 kWh battery. The cost of the battery alone was $68k. And the car was selling for, what, $90k? And the scale of production was a couple of thousand units per month if my memory serves me correctly. Hence my comment that Tesla could make money only with government incentives.

Maybe what is implied here is that it cost Tesla less than $68k to produce the battery? So the 8x was industry average and didn’t apply to Tesla necessarily?

Please do educate me.
The $100/KWh point for Tesla was reached some time ago, I believe. It wouldn't surprise me if their cost was well below that currently, which may change that $68K pack starting value significantly...
 
I just watched an V11 drive hands and leg-free. So no more nags? Assuming it's eyes on road only.
Can anyone confirm this or am I missing something?

Some you tubers are wearing black pants, barely having the leg touch the wheel, and getting the camera angle just right to make it hard to notice. Are you sure they didn't do that in the one you watched?
 
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I didn't see this published in a search, sorry if a repeat.

China has approved driverless ride-hailing. Get ready for Tesla FSD in China? This should be a USA embarrassment if that happens. But maybe they happen together. Wow! (Edit: I forgot about Cruise etc... my brain forgets things that don't really matter). And China's been practicing for the past 3 months. In Beijing no less!

"Previously, safety supervisors were required to be present in the driver’s, passenger’s, or second-row seats during road tests and commercial operations. However, with this new permit, Baidu and Pony.ai are allowed to provide fully driverless rides without a safety supervisor in a 60-square-kilometer area of the Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area."


I think @nativewolf caught my oversight. Fixed it.

Yet the timing of this announcement seems leading... where's Tesla ride-hailing in China? Maybe not quite ready for China general case. The above companies are geofenced, big difference. I still think that Tesla's could take it cautiously by releasing in some cities only at first, States as well. Recommending Chandler Az however, it's been raining ALL winter.
 
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I think @nativewolf caught my oversight. Fixed it.

Yet the timing of this announcement seems leading... where's Tesla ride-hailing in China? Maybe not quite ready for China general case. The above companies are geofenced, big difference. I still think that Tesla's could take it cautiously by releasing in some cities only at first, States as well. Recommending Chandler Az however, it's been raining ALL winter.
I don't know how many times I have to say this but a geofenced ride hailing service is equivalent to going to the back yard and lighting up a bunch of cash to make a bonfire. Show me a profitable robotaxi service and I'll shut up. That business model will NEVER be profitable. The bigger the expansion, the more operating cost they accrue. It's not rocket science to do the calculation when you have more high paying geo fencing/trouble shooting/service engineers than passengers on a given day.

Do you know the number of high paid engineers are required for a regular taxi? ZERO. Tesla's approach is full autonomy with close to zero engineers behind the scene. It's either this or BUST. All of the paper math calculations come from the assumption that operating cost is close to zero besides a server to run the app or else a robotic taxi will always be more expensive than a manual driven taxi.
 
Why do we wait for V11?
Check this TWITTER advertisement I see twice a day. How ironic is that?
I just watched an old CNBC using this same graph yesterday - fresh in my feed. 🤣
Their approach was to explain that they all had a long way to go and Tesla was not discussed except to ridicule.
 
You could be right. Maybe they're that good at hiding it. This was the one, pretty hard to tell.
But why would it be recalled? Eyes OFF the road are assumed to cause a nag still.

I think there would need to be a separate branch spun off, if one doesn't already exist, because there are older FSD-enabled vehicles that don't have a cabin camera. The existing cameras were also never intended for this and I think have limitations that don't exist in other brands using infrared cabin cameras for driver monitoring.
 
I don't know how many times I have to say this but a geofenced ride hailing service is equivalent to going to the back yard and lighting up a bunch of cash to make a bonfire. Show me a profitable robotaxi service and I'll shut up. That business model will NEVER be profitable. The bigger the expansion, the more operating cost they accrue. It's not rocket science to do the calculation when you have more high paying geo fencing/trouble shooting/service engineers than passengers on a given day.

Do you know the number of high paid engineers are required for a regular taxi? ZERO. Tesla's approach is full autonomy with close to zero engineers behind the scene. It's either this or BUST. All of the paper math calculations come from the assumption that operating cost is close to zero besides a server to run the app or else a robotic taxi will always be more expensive than a manual driven taxi.
I guess you'll have to hear it one more time. I'm referring to a goefenced Tesla ride-hail service. Their data must be showing risk levels by geo-location - at least this is what I'd expect. Again, Chandler please.
 
I guess you'll have to hear it one more time. I'm referring to a goefenced Tesla ride-hail service. Their data must be showing risk levels by geo-location - at least this is what I'd expect. Again, Chandler please.

There is nothing that suggests Tesla will ever settle for less than complete autonomy.

Ark Invest used to tout that Tesla should have started the ride-hailing service with a driver and begin collecting revenue until full autonomy is possible. Tesla never did that either.

It isn't important to Elon who does it first, rather it is who does it right.

Both Geo-fencing (supervised), and Ride-hailing with a driver have a human element that can fail. Full autonomy that exceeds an appropriate number of 9s to the right of the decimal point without a human watching over its shoulder is the goal.
 
I think there would need to be a separate branch spun off, if one doesn't already exist, because there are older FSD-enabled vehicles that don't have a cabin camera. The existing cameras were also never intended for this and I think have limitations that don't exist in other brands using infrared cabin cameras for driver monitoring.
I thought they all had cabin cameras since the Model 3? Which were all upgraded to HW3 from HW2.5, ours included. So no cabin cameras are already a diff branch, no?

IR cams needed - Assumed bc others have it? Didn't Tesla go to pixel hardware level on all these cams with much higher resolution?

You folks seem to be more informed here on this. I'll just crawl back into bed and start over...
 
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