Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DarthPierce]

So JPow is scheduled to ruin the day at 230 eastern, right?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

So JPow is scheduled to ruin the day at 230 eastern, right?

 

[mongo]

So JPow is scheduled to ruin the day at 230 eastern, right?

Rate at 2, explaining at 2:30

 

[Motor Mouth]

This is a topic where I think people are still missing the tremendous significance of humankind's shift away from thermal and kinetic power generation. The Industrial Revolution began with water wheels to torque crankshafts and then accelerated with James Watt's development of the first practical steam engine, which used heat to generate the torque. Even the most advanced nuclear power plants are ultimately just sophisticated steam engines, and hydroelectric plants are ultimately just sophisticated water wheels. After all this time, we as a species still haven't moved on from the energy technology that started it all.

In an even broader sense, we've been relying on thermal energy to power our lives since long before the advent of Homo sapiens. Approximately one million years ago, our early hominid ancestors first learned how to harness the power of fire. This discovery of how to control combustion and put it to productive use was one of the most profound developments in the timeline of hominid evolution. Most importantly, it enabled cooking food, which dramatically increased the bioavailability of nutrients and calories with less digestion. Fire also provided warmth, light, protection from predators, opportunity for crafting better tools, and maybe even contributed to the development of language and complex social relationships. This was, more than anything else, the first time in the history of life on Earth that a technology developed by a species disrupted its own evolutionary path by triggering a punctuated equilibrium, resulting in rapid changes to hominid physiology and anatomy that changed our mouths, skull shape, digestive tracts, hair, social patterns, hands and brains, ultimately paving the way for the development of the bigger, smarter, energy-hungry brains of modern Homo sapiens.

Over time, humans invented new crucial applications for concentrated heat, especially starting a few thousand years ago when the Sumerians began to develop the world’s first civilization. The Sumerians were the first to exploit fire for metalworking, pottery, and clay tablets for writing, technologies which were instrumental in the growth of their city-states. Meanwhile, humans also discovered that some species of animals could be domesticated and their muscles, powered by their own metabolism of chemical energy from foods like grass, could be harnessed for mechanical work like transporting loads and plowing fields. Humans continued to rely almost entirely upon combustion of biomass fuel, such as wood, and domesticated animals, such as horses, for energy until the Industrial Revolution began in Britain, Europe and the United States in the late 1700s. The world has never been the same since. With the invention of steam engines, better water wheels, factories and modern engineering, a whole new world of possibility opened up. In the ~250 years since, human technology, science, population, lifespan, economic productivity, and quality of life in general has exponentially exploded. We collectively make more technological progress in one week now than in a decade prior to the First Industrial Revolution. This could never have happened without coal, followed by additions of petroleum and natural gas. We also added geothermal, hydroelectric, and nuclear power, but the fossil fuels have been indispensable and demand has continually increased with brief interruptions only for major global economic recessions.

So, hominids have been using heat and water to perform work (in the physics sense of the term) since time immemorial and added crankshafts to the mix centuries ago, and we're still doing this today. Crazy to think about.

The solar & batteries model is completely different because it works directly with the electromagnetic force without any intermediate steps and associated inefficiencies. Photons from the Sun bombard Earth, semiconductor wafers that are placed outside in the sunshine intercept the photons, and electrons in the valence band of the semiconductor atoms absorb the energy of the photons and are thus excited into the conduction band and are whisked away by a built-in voltage. This is elegantly simple, beautiful, efficient, cheap, safe and has zero moving parts. It makes no noise and emits no harmful pollution. The materials are recyclable. It doesn't necessarily require large, centralized power plants or long-distance, high-voltage, expensive power transmission. It comes with almost no ongoing operation and maintenance costs other than occasional cleaning. The panels can even perform double duty as roof shingles on buildings we were going to construct anyway. This is extremely awesome in my opinion. The holdup this entire time has been learning about:

1. The existence of the photovoltaic effect, discovered by Edmond Becquerel in 1839
2. Semiconductor physics and manufacturing techniques to mass-produce cheap, high-quality silicon wafers for the photovoltaic cells and the microelectronics to control all of this
3. How to make good electrochemical batteries that are cheap
4. How to make installation cheap

Thermal energy plants are thus becoming categorically obsolete right before our eyes. No more heat engines. It won't matter whether the heat source is wood, gasoline, diesel, kerosene, coal, natural gas, petroleum, atomic fission, atomic fusion, magma, sunlight, cow dung, whale oil, or even literal magic that somehow generates arbitrarily large amounts of heat on demand for $0 per joule. On a levelized basis, the rest of the cost structure (steam, pistons/turbines, heat removal, pollution control, transformers, power lines, substations, etc.) is going to be more expensive than solar and batteries, which are beginning to outcompete all heat engines and huge regional transmission grids on cost and all key performance characteristics.

View attachment 920124

Energy and toolmaking have been fundamental drivers of human progress for the last million years, and I would argue that the Fourth Industrial Revolution is now underway with AI-driven manufacturing and a transition to abundant energy production and consumption with solar photovoltaics, batteries, and advanced electric motors. Tesla sits at the epicenter of this earthshaking revolution and most people have no idea what's happening.

Nominated for Post Of Merit.
With special thanks to Giga for, as always, making me feel stupid while making me smarter.

 

[SOULPEDL]

"Somebody help me for I am about to sin!!!"

Sorry bro; I guess you didn't get that I was kidding... sounded like you were going for a small option call. Something I've done so many times before it's not even funny. Over all it simply hasn't worked for me, thus my version of "The Cost of Higher Education". Which for me, never seems to truly end.

Tesla is indeed rocking. And will surely be rocketing again at some point as well. What the hell is taking so long; that's what we'd all like to know.

Maybe no options, just shares. It's the rare time I feel better when the stock drops, so it's an emotional neutralizer. As my net worth drops on the dip, my buying fever kicks in. I'm sure someone spotted the curse word (emotion). But I'm human - please don't forget that part! Also keep in mind, I'm still in ~90%.

Before long, AI will make us humans look way too similar and already does. I made the mistake of looking up AI text to speech and graphics... it's a tsunami and accelerating with JOLT. (Highly recommended everyone try to keep up with AI progress.) It's another reason I just told my brother (who thought his V11 in Sacramento was making the same silly mistakes on lane selection), not to assume it's linear for FSD. Elon backs this up re Dojo projections.

But as someone pointed out last month, my "day trade" yielded about $112 after taxes and that ruined it. We're super lucky to be alive, so I'm making everyday count. I am human, complete with emotions!!!

Spoiler: Correction 86% in.

 

[Ogre]

This is what digging your own grave looks like. Legacy auto has painted themselves into a weird corner here. They've been quietly removing all the good lower end options from the menu and choking supply in order to push prices to the highest prices ever. Profits go up, deliveries go down.

While their profits went up short term, they set the market up for Tesla to slide right in.

Legacy auto has been coasting on free money from the fed for the past 5+ years and now that's vanished. Tesla saw the obvious implications of raising interest rates and dropped prices. Legacy is going to need to do the same or they will starve.

CarDealershipGuy on Twitter

 

[thx1139]

This is what digging your own grave looks like. Legacy auto has painted themselves into a weird corner here. They've been quietly removing all the good lower end options from the menu and choking supply in order to push prices to the highest prices ever. Profits go up, deliveries go down.

While their profits went up short term, they set the market up for Tesla to slide right in.

Legacy auto has been coasting on free money from the fed for the past 5+ years and now that's vanished. Tesla saw the obvious implications of raising interest rates and dropped prices. Legacy is going to need to do the same or they will starve.

View attachment 920147

CarDealershipGuy on Twitter

Remember just a few months ago he was talking about the Used car market was about to enter free fall. New cars that people should be buying have dropped considerably this year and they get a $7500 tax credit as well.

 

[bkp_duke]

Remember just a few months ago he was talking about the Used car market was about to enter free fall. New cars that people should be buying have dropped considerably this year and they get a $7500 tax credit as well.

And right along with that, prices of those same models dropped like a stone. S3XY prices all took huge nose-dives when the tax credit went into effect.

 

[navguy12]

Up 7.82% today. Not bad. I'll take just over 10 more days like this, please.

Please hold for one more week. Inheritance wending its way to me…

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's the link to the March 22, 2023 FOMC Press Release:

Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

"Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have picked up in recent months and are running at a robust pace; the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.​

​

"The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.​

​

"The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.​

​

"In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.​

​

"Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller."​

Cheers!

 

[Ogre]

Remember just a few months ago he was talking about the Used car market was about to enter free fall. New cars that people should be buying have dropped considerably this year and they get a $7500 tax credit as well.

Maybe not so great on the analysis. Pretty sure he has the facts right though.

Legacy has been slowly pulling low end options off the table.

 

[wipster]

SP going up!

Shoot me now...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I take it max pain is @$200 for the week?

 

[Ogre]

And right along with that, prices of those same models dropped like a stone. S3XY prices all took huge nose-dives when the tax credit went into effect.

Definitely some weird externalities on pricing of EVs!

It's not just the incentives though. Supply of Teslas is massively up year over year. Tesla is producing about 4,000 more Model Ys per year than this time last year when supply was super tight. Lots more used Teslas out there as well. Last year everything was tight as a frogs bum, this year supply and wait times are not as crazy-bad.

 

[Papafox]

Meanwhile in the sinister market maker control room:
" Turn up the sledge-0-matic now! If TSLA cracks 200 you scalawags are in for a flogging!"

 

[GrandEnigma]

SP going up!

Shoot me now...

Way to go

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Seems like the market is happy w/ 0.25% rate hike. Tech stocks are particularly happy right now.

edit : This didn't age well

 

[Kenypowa]

what a sharp increase drop.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I take it max pain is @$200 for the week?

Thought it was 190 last we checked. No data today.

 

[Papafox]

Looks like the Fed action was close to market expectations: a quarter percent raise and verbiage stating we're close to finishing up the interest rate hikes.

Fed hikes rates by a quarter percentage point, indicates increases are near an end

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released its decision on interest rates following a two-day meeting.

www.cnbc.com