Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JusRelax]

Sasha Yanshin takes the lay of the financial land in this recent video. The TL;dw is your shares at a U.S. Broker are very safe (insert DTCC stuff here), but your cash balance at that same broker may not be:

HTH.

Anybody know what happens to options/LEAPS?

 

[JusRelax]

Not rumor. Schwab acquired TD Ameritrade brokerage customers. CheckmScwab fir customer conversion instructions. FWIW, I went to Schwab when they bought USAA brokerage customers. To my surprise Schwab has done well for me.

https://www.aboutschwab.com/announcement

This apparently happened back in 2019. It seems like Schwab is just letting TD Ameritrade continue to run as a completely separate entity for now, with little to no intervention whatsoever.

The Charles Schwab Corporation to Acquire TD Ameritrade

The Charles Schwab Corporation (“Schwab”) and TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation (“TD Ameritrade”) today announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement for Schwab to acquire TD Ameritrade in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $26 billion. Under the agreement, TD...

pressroom.aboutschwab.com

 

[Chocochip]

Hmmm... what does "recall" mean here?

Recall of what? Is this the ability to "remember" and predictively track objects when temporarily obscured in the current field of view?

Think of recall as *sensitivity*; it's essentially a measure of the detection rate of relevant elements (i.e. things that matter, as opposed to data noise).

Recall and precision are the two metrics typically used to indicate the performance of a detection system.

Wiki page on precision and recall

 

[unk45]

This apparently happened back in 2019. It seems like Schwab is just letting TD Ameritrade continue to run as a completely separate entity for now, with little to no intervention whatsoever.

The Charles Schwab Corporation to Acquire TD Ameritrade

The Charles Schwab Corporation (“Schwab”) and TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation (“TD Ameritrade”) today announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement for Schwab to acquire TD Ameritrade in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $26 billion. Under the agreement, TD...

pressroom.aboutschwab.com

True, but...Ameritrade continues as a Schwab subsidiary but all accounts will be transitioned to Schwab on or before September 2023 and the Ameritrade name will be retired:

Schwab Presents Detailed Time Line for TD Ameritrade Integration

During IMPACT, Schwab outlined a far more detailed time line for advisors to make the transition from TD Ameritrade.

www.wealthmanagement.com

That will be nearly seamless if past Schwab acquisitions have been. They have taken their time on this one, to be sure, in part, it appears, due to the issues connected to the pandemic which made them decide to wait for actual operational integration.

The shares and their histories transfer without losing any data, but there can be added complexity in margin and options holdings, nothing major.
All TSLA holdings are safe. Just remember that Schwab gives TSLA a solid F so margin is not generous and their advisors are told to discourage TSLA purchase when asked. I have been encouraged to sell TSLA but have ignored that 'advice' not least because the capital gains would be onerous. With that exception and noting that Schwab ratings are pretty much worthless in general, Schwab has been quit competent and easy with which to deal, at least IMHO.

Since Schwab bought themselves back from Bank of America, NT&SA(the old pre-NCNB Bank of America) decades ago they have been increasingly successful and stable.

 

[Krugerrand]

True, but ask VW about the company wanting their Tn plant to be union. I believe the GM plant was originally Saturn and was a special case. As a former Tn stump William,I can say it may be an interesting fight.pretty much everyone I know in the area has a gun in their pocket or purse.

Having friends who live in all sorts of places; some where guns are like underwear and others where guns are like buried treasure, and having lived in places where no one but the police carry guns and now in a place where everyone but me carries a gun - I say meh.

People are people and behave like people regardless of the contents of their vehicles, pockets, or purses.

I have not found that people who believe they have a right to bear arms anymore likely to use said arms than I am (who has no opinion on the topic and believes they can talk down a mountain lion). Bad, evil, criminal types, and the scared are those most willing and they exist everywhere regardless of gun laws.

Now you didn’t suggest the above that I just wrote, but it goes to the point you were trying to make about the people of TN and their desire or not for a union factory and I say that even there people will be people and behave accordingly.

Having friends and family who’ve worked both in union and non-union factories, myself having experienced both in my formative years, I say meh.

People are people and will behave accordingly; some people will refuse to work in a union shop, some will refuse to work in a non-union shop, some people won’t care one way or another for a million different reasons from they need a job to survive to they’re just putting in time, some people will change their minds about unions according to what happens in that factory and so on.

In summary, I’m against your assumption that based on what those in TN carry in their pockets and purses has a direct bearing on whether or not they’ll want a union.

What will determine the latter is how the company decides to treat their employees because people above all else are driven by self; self preservation, self survival, self respect, selfishness. How a company appeals to self determines if a union is chosen by the workers or not.

If Tesla rode into TN it would stay ununionized all day long, everyday because it would attract the gun toting people who appreciate less corporate structure, freedom and encouragement to think independently, the opportunity to advance according to how much smarts they have and effort they put forth, the chance to own a piece and continue to buy an ever larger piece of a rapidly growing company doing uncommon and exciting things etc., etc.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Sorry... where exactly do you see LR Model Ys at £40k?

The LR Model Ys in inventory start (in white) at £48,770 (£5.3k off), and the SR Model Ys start at £42,350 (£2.6k off)
Tesla inventory of new white LR Model Ys

Indeed, the Model 3 discounts are deeper: the SR-RWDs in inventory start (in white) at £38,790 (£4.2k off), while the LR-AWDs start at £45,990 (£5k off)
Tesla inventory of new white LR Model 3s

These discounts just popped up today AFAIK, so they only affect the last week of deliveries of those specific variants. Yes, I suspect UK sales will not be brilliant this Q, but Tesla is still making money on these sales -- check the prices for these cars in China.

Edited to add: if Troy is right -- and I suspect he's in the correct ballpark -- Q1-23 sales in the UK will be roughly even to the Q1-22 numbers and down significantly compared to Q4-22. I suspect it's a whole auto market trend, though.

2023 Shipping Movements

Tuesday 21 Mar 23 SUMMARY DREAM ORCHID has arrived alongside the ICO terminal in Zeebrugge. She is highly likely to be carrying some Teslas. HOEGH OSAKA Has arrived in Rotterdam. Has 760 MS and 664 MX onboard from Baltimore which are being unloaded in Rotterdam. HOEGH BANGKOK ETA Zeebrugge 30...

teslamotorsclub.com

View attachment 920496

I meant Model Y SR. Sorry. There were a couple at 40K (white) with the 4k off. They are pricing the inventory extremely dynamically, which is excellent !

 

[GOVA]

Should be there soon, given the launch by H2 2023. I find it no weirder than no-USS vehicle owners not knowing when they'll get the 2023.6.9 update (they just released it to some, but not to others, without any communication regarding the rollout).

Say what you will about Tesla: PR is not their greatest strength (ducks for the downvotes).

PR you say? I disagree.

While I still want to know the price, I think Tesla has not announced it yet is due to the current economic disaster.

Simply, when They'd say 50K, it might be equivalent to 33K in a few months or the opposite. I hope this is the reason.
It is very similar to this 25K car nonsense. Not because I don't want a 25K car but rather 25K was very different in 2020 than in 2023.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Journalists won't have time to write Tesla FUD no more. They got to quash AI before it takes their jobs.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1639145715615297542

While funny, there is a lot of truth to your statement. Hacks write about Tesla solely because it generates clicks. If writing about AI generates more clicks, then they can finally stop writing about Tesla. Which may or may not help Tesla…

 

[unk45]

Deutsche Bank going down. We all gonna die! We need some trillion dollar coins printed ASAP!

Deutsche Bank's Stock Drops About 9% in European Trading; Bonds Fall

Deutsche Bank's shares and bonds are selling off Friday, as investors turn wary on some European banks in the aftermath of Credit Suisse's troubles. "Deutsche Bank is under pressure now. People are repositioning

www.wsj.com

In all seriousness, don't see the present financial system existing if stocks get wiped along with bank deposits. Why worry about things you cannot control?

EDIT: And I don’t mean stock market crash. That would be pedestrian compared to major brokerages failing and stock shares and bond holdings going up in smoke along with bank runs.

Deutsche Bank has had numerous brushes with catastrophe over decades. Nearly all of that is seriously OT. Just understand that depositors will not be at risk. Shareholders have, if they're minimally aware, known for a long time that this would not be a lucrative investment. A quick internet search can satisfy all the purient interest, especially with Russian and other very wealthy very questionable people. I implicitly suggest checking out a certain former US President's dealings with them, preceding several senior executives dismissal. That is just one...(NOT statements of fact; look it up)

 

[ZeApelido]

First, a clarification — Santa Clara County (just south of San Mateo County) is usually considered the heart of Silicon Valley.

Just an embarrassing mistake by @Gigapress. Now we really can’t trust anything he writes anymore.

 

[Cosmacelf]

There are people out there who can keep cash in a broker and not spend it on TSLA?

Well, you know, we need ready cash to pay for wires to our private jet charters companies, private Cayman Island beach house rentals, slope side Deer Valley ski house rentals, while also paying for our expensive hobbies like our eight horse polo strings and car racing habit.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Having friends who live in all sorts of places; some where guns are like underwear and others where guns are like buried treasure, and having lived in places where no one but the police carry guns and now in a place where everyone but me carries a gun - I say meh.

People are people and behave like people regardless of the contents of their vehicles, pockets, or purses.

I have not found that people who believe they have a right to bear arms anymore likely to use said arms than I am (who has no opinion on the topic and believes they can talk down a mountain lion). Bad, evil, criminal types, and the scared are those most willing and they exist everywhere regardless of gun laws.

Now you didn’t suggest the above that I just wrote, but it goes to the point you were trying to make about the people of TN and their desire or not for a union factory and I say that even there people will be people and behave accordingly.

Having friends and family who’ve worked both in union and non-union factories, myself having experienced both in my formative years, I say meh.

People are people and will behave accordingly; some people will refuse to work in a union shop, some will refuse to work in a non-union shop, some people won’t care one way or another for a million different reasons from they need a job to survive to they’re just putting in time, some people will change their minds about unions according to what happens in that factory and so on.

In summary, I’m against your assumption that based on what those in TN carry in their pockets and purses has a direct bearing on whether or not they’ll want a union.

What will determine the latter is how the company decides to treat their employees because people above all else are driven by self; self preservation, self survival, self respect, selfishness. How a company appeals to self determines if a union is chosen by the workers or not.

If Tesla rode into TN it would stay ununionized all day long, everyday because it would attract the gun toting people who appreciate less corporate structure, freedom and encouragement to think independently, the opportunity to advance according to how much smarts they have and effort they put forth, the chance to own a piece and continue to buy an ever larger piece of a rapidly growing company doing uncommon and exciting things etc., etc.

 

[scaesare]

Think of recall as *sensitivity*; it's essentially a measure of the detection rate of relevant elements (i.e. things that matter, as opposed to data noise).

Recall and precision are the two metrics typically used to indicate the performance of a detection system.

Wiki page on precision and recall

Interesting, so when the notes say recall was improved "for close-by cut-in cases, particularly for large trucks and high yaw-rate scenarios", that implies the percentage of relevant cases for those sorts of events being identified has increased?

 

[SOULPEDL]

How sensitive is Schwab to a real estate bubble bursting?

 

[Chocochip]

Interesting, so when the notes say recall was improved "for close-by cut-in cases, particularly for large trucks and high yaw-rate scenarios", that implies the percentage of relevant cases for those sorts of events being identified has increased?

That's how I understand it, yes. Probably an unnecessarily-technical way of saying that large trucks near the ego car and close-by objects during turns have a higher probability of being detected accurately.

 

[UltradoomY]

PR you say? I disagree.

While I still want to know the price, I think Tesla has not announced it yet is due to the current economic disaster.

Simply, when They'd say 50K, it might be equivalent to 33K in a few months or the opposite. I hope this is the reason.
It is very similar to this 25K car nonsense. Not because I don't want a 25K car but rather 25K was very different in 2020 than in 2023.

I would imagine that the first 100k or so Cyber Trucks are going to be the highest trim and you won't get it even then unless you pay for FSD.
So pricing will be on the higher end - close to / if not above a Model X - and it won't matter because they will all sell quickly.

 

[betstarship]

Ford CEO on Tesla, Tennessee EV plant, etc. This is worth watching as he talks with a real lack of confidence to me (and a ton of jargon) about EVs and the EV market:

Ford CEO on Tennessee EV Plant, Profitability, Tesla

Ford CEO Jim Farley discusses the electric F-Series pickup factory under construction in Tennessee, profitability plans for its electric-vehicle lineup, and competition with Tesla on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)

www.bloomberg.com

They're betting on trucks and being a fast follower to Tesla...per usual. He does admit that their trucks are too feature-rich and to reduce down complexity in the manufacturing to keep up.

 

[dhrivnak]

True, but ask VW about the company wanting their Tn plant to be union. I believe the GM plant was originally Saturn and was a special case. As a former Tn stump William,I can say it may be an interesting fight.pretty much everyone I know in the area has a gun in their pocket or purse.

I live in TN and most everyone does NOT carry a gun. You know not what you speak of. And there are MNY non union plants. I worked at one such plant for over 34 years with over 6000 employees. There has nver been a serious attempt to unionize.

 

[betstarship]

How sensitive is Schwab to a real estate bubble bursting?

I've been in the middle of a housing search the past months and seen Tesla drop down ~70% as well as the housing market cool down and ramp back up significantly (in only 5 months of the search). It's been a whirlwind and I'm wondering how much of it is due to the trickle down market effects of climate change. With all the rain going on in CA this winter (and now spring), I do wonder over the next years how rebuildable a lot of 70-100 year old homes are going to be and how that's going to be changing the landscape...as well as the roads.

After doing some research, this is becoming a trend across other parts of the world too...i.e. people walking away from mortgages essentially. There's more of these types of articles being churned out recently...maybe a sign that people are internalizing better now the situation at hand and its effects on the various economic markets we rely on?

How Climate Change Could Sink the US Real Estate Market

Rising seas, fires, and outdated government policies threaten a repeat of the subprime mortgage meltdown

www.sierraclub.org

Follow-up q - Was there a thread on Boxabl?

 

[Nocturnal]

It's strange that Farley is claiming that in two years their new truck will be autonomous enough to let you sleep in it. They dropped their autonomous efforts just a few months ago so where is this tech coming from? VW? I find this very hard to believe.

Edit, I guess they have their new AI company Lattitude but still.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1639264507586392066