Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

Useful forecast is one that DOES NOT NEED TO CHANGE when new data becomes available.

LOL. Ever worked on "Useful Forecast" for any large company ? Most well run companies forecast daily / weekly using latest numbers.

ps : Imagine telling your CFO/CEO that your forecasts don't change as actuals change ... because then it won't be "useful".

 

[unk45]

Meh, it's not that big a deal. Australian pilots do it every day. If fact, it only makes the news when they DON'T land upside downunder...

Cheers!

BTW are the Aussies and Kiwis the only antipodean ones? Obviously anglophiles think that only Aussies and Kiwis count. Those who live in the more populous parts of the Southern Hemisphere have different views. Despite Mr. Musk having been created in another antipodean Southern Hemisphere country one would expect him to be more sympathetic to his former compatriots and those other non-Aussie, non-Kiwi folk who really, really want Teslas too.

Alas, the Anglocentric ones get the Teslas while we others are forced to make do with Porsche, Mercedes Benz, Jaguar, Audi, Volvo, BYD, Chery, JAC, VW etc. Why must we suffer in this sea of mediocracy when we so want to do our investor duty by buying products from our own company? Sad, that!

 

[aubreymcfato]

FWIW, we're gonna surpass, probably in a few hours, the best month ever in Norway, the famous March 19, when Model 3 arrived for the first time in Europe: it was 5828 cars. We could maybe surpass 7000 if the next one is a strong week.

 

[DutchDriver]

Have you actually tried to use it on the Leaf? Totally unusable.

Yes I did. For someone who can't park, like me, it was good enough.
One point of complaint, in bad weather I had to clean the fish eye lenses frequently

 

[scaesare]

In sort of industry news / sort of off topic: Gordon Moore has passed away.

Gordon Moore, Intel co-founder and creator of Moore's Law, dies aged 94

Mr Moore famously predicted that computer processing power would double every two years.

www.bbc.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1639417420497702912

In Memoriam: Gordon Moore, 1929 - 2023

With great sadness, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation announces the passing of our founder, Gordon Moore. With his characteristic humility and word econom…

www.moore.org

And yet his law lives on and amazingly largely holds true even down to this day...

 

[Singuy]

I don't think this child size doll is tall enough for the cruise to detect it in its path. We need Dan O Clowns' help.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1639570919432785920

 

[InTheMiddle]

That was from Tuesday.

So here we go with 11.3.3. It's just starting to show up as a download on TeslaFi. This is after 11.3.2 got no more pending installations and just slowly petered out over the past three days getting close to 10% of the FSD Beta population. Never turned into a wide release.

Maybe we'll do better with 11.3.3, although it's just 2022.45.12, a bug fix change to 11.3.2 not even deserving of anything new in the release notes (at least not that I've seen posted anywhere yet). My guess is that this one will finally be the one to go to wide release, but we likely won't know for sure until Monday.

So far Elon is 0 for 10 in his predictions about the single stack V11 over the past year and a half. "Two weeks".

Fairly certain that V11 will indeed be widely available shortly, whether because 11.3.3 resolves enough issues for a wide push or simply because of the array of business / numerology dates coming up, whether 3/31 for EOQ, day before/of earnings report, or even any of {4/1, 4/11, 4/20} attempting at humor.

The interesting question will be the impact of said release when it happens. V11, much like V10 before it, will presumably be a huge improvement but not an end-all-be-all (yes, same with V12 and so on, of course). Assuming lower and upper bounds of "Mixed bag with some notable steps forward and some (fewer) notable steps back / gaps that may gather regulatory interest" and "Incredible stair-step upward that shows a clear path / likelihood of near-term full autonomy that definitely generates huge investor + car buyer interest", reality will likely be somewhere in between, but where in between those is the key question. It will be interesting to set some arbitrary mark in the future (say "30 days after Teslafi.com shows V11 % of fleet exceeding V10 % of fleet") and gauge all of {end-user, investor, AI community} assessments of V11 at that point.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Perhaps one of the upcoming new Tesla models is a Tunnel Car: more room for passengers and luggage, no need for fast acceleration or aerodynamics, no steering wheel, just a very basic box that can reliably and safely go 40 MPH without driver.

Elon has stated in the past that one of the reasons why public transport is so expensive is that the train cars are very low volume and thus expensive to manufacture. Everyone keeps thinking Tesla will create a special Boring vehicle, but I think that will not happen. They will use whatever mass market Tesla vehicles are appropriate.

 

[JRP3]

They will use whatever mass market Tesla vehicles are appropriate.

Certainly for quite a while but Tesla has shown some renders which appear to be autonomous only.

 

[philw1776]

Old renders are suspect. If you follow SpaceX, Tesla, etc. you'll know that plans change, even recently stated plans.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Certainly for quite a while but Tesla has shown some renders which appear to be autonomous only.

What would make you think autonomous-only vehicles aren't intended to be mass market?

 

[Krugerrand]

FWIW, we're gonna surpass, probably in a few hours, the best month ever in Norway, the famous March 19, when Model 3 arrived for the first time in Europe: it was 5828 cars. We could maybe surpass 7000 if the next one is a strong week.

Not possible. I’ve got it on good authority there’s a European demand problem.

I voodoo curse the next person who utters, suggests, passive aggressively or outright says Tesla has a demand problem in any region of the planet Earth. And don’t for a second think I can’t or won’t follow through with said curse. I may not have WS connections, but don’t test me in this regard; Ancestry.com says I’m golden here. You’ve been warned.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Certainly for quite a while but Tesla has shown some renders which appear to be autonomous only.

I believe that was from the Boring company, not Tesla, and that was very early in the company’s life. We haven’t seen such renders in the last several years.

 

[JRP3]

What would make you think autonomous-only vehicles aren't intended to be mass market?

Good point.

 

[JRP3]

I believe that was from the Boring company, not Tesla, and that was very early in the company’s life. We haven’t seen such renders in the last several years.

Yes that was Boring company and a few years ago. They may still see a need for a larger than normal passenger vehicle at some point.

 

[EVMeister]

No official Tesla twitter has confirmed this yet, but it looks like the Giga Berlin ramp has gotten to the steep part of the ramp! 26 days to go from 4k/week to 5k/week!

"It has been confirmed by 2 independent sources that Giga Berlin produced 5,000 vehicles per week last week and is now at a run rate of 250,000 p.a. - 50% of phase 1 capacity. Congrats team Berlin!"

Note: the picture from the tweet is the exact same pic from the official 4k/week tweet just doctored to say 5k

https://twitter.com/x/status/1639598101479538688

Tesla has now confirmed this on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1639713037174161408

 

[Yelobird]

I expect that production of tunneling machines is about to ramp up. The recent request for disposal of 145,000 gallons of water per day by Boring Co in Bastrop County, Texas was explained as being treated waste water from water-jet metal cutting.

That sounds like a LOT of metal being cut daily for assembly on the Boring production line.

I can say for a fact that assumption is not correct as I sold them the waterjet cutting systems. Lol. For one with no support they can only generate 2500 gallons per day And the system installed uses a closed loop (IE recycled water) system which by definition would waste no water per day or year. Just a known point of input.

 

[betstarship]

Weekend OT:

I'm happy spending my weekend just looking at SpaceX videos on Twitter.

20 launches this year already!

 

[NicoV]

FWIW, we're gonna surpass, probably in a few hours, the best month ever in Norway, the famous March 19, when Model 3 arrived for the first time in Europe: it was 5828 cars. We could maybe surpass 7000 if the next one is a strong week.

The 4 real-time reporting EU countries have now broken the Q4 delivery record: currently at 15299, 100 more than Q4 with still a week to go in Q1.

 

[Usain]

Have you actually tried to use it on the Leaf? Totally unusable.

I have a 2017 Bolt in addition to my two Teslas. Bird's eye view in the Bolt is pretty good. It's one of the few things I miss in the Teslas.

But eventually, Tesla's implementation will be superior because AI can do this better. I think we will see that clearly in another year or two.