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Sorry to disappoint, but no... there were plenty of cars available in March, and Tesla kept cutting prices in their inventory listings, with most Model 3 variants getting "showroom adjustments" of £4,000-£6,000. I actually stopped by my *local* delivery centre on March 31st and the lot was full (hundreds of cars, see photos), despite their inventory page showing only a handful of cars available at that location. Tesla has close to 20 delivery centres in the UK, and the last ship from Shanghai docked in Southampton on 19 March, plenty of time to get the cars delivered if there were customers willing to take delivery.

It's easy to claim that Tesla has "infinite demand", but the truth is, while Tesla's vehicles see a lot more demand than similarly-priced cars, things like high interest rates and cost of ownership (as well as the current lack of EV incentives) are significant in the decision-making process of a potential car buyer.
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It’s strange to see as looking at cars you can pick up now there are 12 non demo cars and for customer it’s June…
 
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Total Europe.

2023 Q1 Total - 92265
Model Y - 73353
Model 3 - 16978
Model S/X - 1934

2022 Q4 Total - 94819
Model Y - 54654
Model 3 - 37202
Model S/X - 2963

A bit less then q4 but the Y is sold a lot more.

Thanks for this. I did some analysis of the effect of the change (Delta) in product mix for the EU from Q4'22 to Q1'23. Assuming a $5K higher ASP and the same COGS for Model Y vs. Model 3, we get more revenue from fewer cars (see the table below). Also, this is likely an underestimate of the effect on income since it does not include the lower transportation and import taxes due the rising share of MiG (Berlin) vs MiC (Shanghai) Model Y deliveries QoQ.

When also adjusting for deferred revenue from decreased S/X deliveries, the net effect is an increased contribution of about $60M increase in gross profits for Q1'23 over Q3'22:

Delta Mix:​
2023 Q1
Totals​
Delta Deliveries​
18,699​
Model Y​
73,353​
$5,000​
$93,495,000.00​
98.34%​
-20,224​
Model 3​
16,978​
90,331​
$91,942,789.20​
Model S/X​
1,934​
-1,029​
-$30,870,000.00​
$61,072,789.20
Delta G.M.
2022 Q4
Totals​
Model Y​
54,654​
Model 3​
37,202​
91,856​
Model S/X​
2,963​

Cheers!
 
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Is it me, or are those predominantly model 3 ? (Being held back to get a premium in the new registration year)

Yes, this is EXACTLY the point about "ending the wave". There is little rush now to delivery all the vehicles which arrived on March 18th before the end-of-quarter (while slashing prices). The only real imparative is to deliver those cars before the next shipload of cars arrives from Shanghai. Only Tesla knows when that will be, and they plan accordingly (and price product to move expeditiously).

That's not a 'demand problem'. That's a business maximizing it's revenue while increasing supply. SURF'S UP! Well done, Tesla UK. :D

Cheers!
 
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You could be right, but my hunch is the CT (like the Semi) won't help TSLA at all until the economy and macros improve. It will certainly help advertise for Tesla, as CT's start driving around the streets people won't be able to stop talking about it, and the deluge of YouTube and social media posts about the CT will have an enormous positive impact on Tesla demand. But I don't think WS will give a hoot about any of that as long as the market macros are tanked.

The company and the stock are often disconnected, and I think the CT launch will be one of those moments if the economy is still bad by then. TSLA should catch up in a massive way once the economy improves of course. :cool:
In our current market, the valuation of Nvidia is bucking the trend with substantial gains. Why? The "market" is connecting the dots between AI and Nvidia. I think when the market sees CT ramping, they will be able to connect the dots of 500K Cybertrucks at 20% margin to higher share price. Lots could mess that up, I just see it as the most likely, near-term catalyst. Of course if the market gets bad enough, nothing will buck the trend.
 
😂

Yeah, no. Not buying a several year long software mistake of this particular sort.
Sure - I understand the conspiracy theories. But I've also had regulatory fine on a software that was running that way for over a decade in one of the "too big to fail" banks I was working in at that time.


...never leap to a malignant conspiracy to explain something that can be explained by incompetence and self-protection first.​
 
Thanks, but my question, and the post I was responding to, were about QOQ deliveries in the UK. Your response is about YOY.

Q1 2023 13,355
Q4 2022 22,404

In the post I responded to, @Todd Burch estimated 4,203 for Q1 2023. He obviously underestimated March deliveries; it seems like the wave was still in effect for the UK.

Judging from the Q1 numbers by model, and the comment by @thx1139, the answer to my question is that UK vehicles (Right Hand Drive) all come from Shanghai, and the Model 3 line there was shut down for part of Q1 (retooling and/or holiday?).

Does that make sense?

Also, there is a seasonality issue in the UK due to semi-annual model year changes in early April.

Hopefully all these factors mean Q2 should be a good quarter in the UK.
To be clear, I wasn't trying to make an accurate prediction of UK deliveries in March. I have no business doing that, as I'm not doing any research or trying to reason explanations for anything. I don't even have a spreadsheet set up :).

In that post I was just trying to roughly estimate Europe Q1 deliveries as a whole--just saying that based on the Jan/Feb deliveries, if we assume 40% of UK's numbers get delivered in March, they would total 4203. Purpose of the whole discussion was to try to estimate how Europe's Q1 numbers compared to Q4 without paying too much attention to any one country in particular. As you pointed out, Model 3 line in Shanghai was down for a bit, and after resuming those cars need to get shipped to Europe, so it's not surprising that the UK missed out on many Model 3 deliveries in Q1.

I think all this discussion about "Country A had great sales!" (aka Norway or Portugal or Spain in Q1) and "demand in Country B plummeted" (aka UK or Germany) are overblown. Bulls (of which I am one) incorrectly use this info to pump TSLA, and bears use it to suppress TSLA. As much as I hate bears arguing that demand is dead when January Model 3 sales plummet in Croatia, I cringe just as much when people say "Tesla outsold everything in March!" (of couse it did, that's when the bulk of shipments from Shanghai arrive).

Truth is, they're both wrong--at least until the wave is truly flattened for real.

Most of the the variation in a given country has little to do with demand and everything to do with everything else:

The reality is that, quarter-to-quarter and even month-to-month, shipments from Factory A get distributed to different places for a myriad of reasons (logistics, local incentives/expiration of incentives, production schedules of left-hand-drive vs. right-hand-drive vehicles, etc). So we see alternating peaks and valleys in a specific country, but if you zoom out and look at the quarter as a whole (all regions) you see steady growth. Personally, that's what I care about most. How many cars are sold in the country of Hoochieland in Q1 vs. Q4 mean nothing to me. Sure, it's nice to see improvements--but it doesn't really mean anything or provide any insight to the larger picture.

Q1 has grown over Q4. That's excellent, as almost everyone else has seen a Q4-> Q1 drop (even Tesla often sees this). Tesla's growth is a little bit slower now compared to what it could be, but that's because of the world macroeconomic environment's uncertainty and high interest rates...not because people suddenly don't like Teslas.

People who claim UK demand has plummeted, for example, are looking at the data with blinders on. As you point out (and I agree), UK probably has a high percentage of Model 3 deliveries compared to other models, so the Shanghai Model 3 line shutdown in Q1 (and the need to ship them to the UK from Shanghai) affected deliveries in Q1. Probably had very little to do with UK demand.

It's the big picture that matters.
 
Hadn't seen this posted- Tesla cuts Megapack pricing despite 2 yr wait... it's a weirdly tiny cut though? 30k off a nearly 2 million dollar item.


 
Sure - I understand the conspiracy theories. But I've also had regulatory fine on a software that was running that way for over a decade in one of the "too big to fail" banks I was working in at that time.


...never leap to a malignant conspiracy to explain something that can be explained by incompetence and self-protection first.​
And noooobody knew there was a software bug for allllll that time - um, whatever. 🙄

These entities need to hire a couple of Tesla owners/FSD beta testers. Any software ‘bugs’ wouldn’t go undetected for 24 hours let alone an entire decade.

I call BS, all day long, every day. I know what people are capable of when there’s money to be made/money on the line and ignoring a software bug for SIX YEARS, while you’re making money hand over fist is just too easy.
 
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Hadn't seen this posted- Tesla cuts Megapack pricing despite 2 yr wait... it's a weirdly tiny cut though? 30k off a nearly 2 million dollar item.


Just noting it’s a ‘slashing’ of price according to the article. Clearly your definition of tiny is different than the author’s.

That’s sarcasm. Not a criticism of you, but feel free to give me the disagree anyway to keep your trend on point. Also sarcasm and still not a criticism of you. But do your worst. More sarcasm, etc., etc.,
 
People who claim UK demand has plummeted, for example, are looking at the data with blinders on. As you point out (and I agree), UK probably has a high percentage of Model 3 deliveries compared to other models, so the Shanghai Model 3 line shutdown in Q1 (and the need to ship them to the UK from Shanghai) affected deliveries in Q1. Probably had very little to do with UK demand.
I'm not sure how you can argue that, when the verifiable facts are:
1. Model 3 variants saw the deepest discounts on Tesla's inventory page in March
2. Tesla delivered 9,953 Model Ys and 3,402 Model 3s in Q1 -- that's a 3:1 ratio; the Q4 ratio was almost exactly 2:1
3. The cars sat on the lot during my visit to the delivery centre were mostly Model 3s; this matches the discount pattern on Tesla's inventory page

But yeah, let's twist ourselves into a pretzel and justify how Tesla's £4,200-£6,000 discounts on brand-new Model 3 -- as well as the offer of 3,000 free SuC miles for deliveries up to March 31 are really a sign of insufficient supply from Shanghai :rolleyes:

Look, I'd like nothing more than to bang the drum about Tesla's amazing UK sales numbers - the results coming in from the rest of Europe really had me hoping that I missed something. But the truth is the actual sales number for March came in below my expected (and what I thought was pessimistic) 12k. And I get that sharing this stuff won't win me any popularity contest on this thread. But as an investor I'd rather know as much about the situation on the ground, even when it's not great, instead of just repeating to myself that 5 years from now it won't matter. They HAVE to execute to get there!
 
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Ford's EV credits from the IRA have been cut in half for all but the F-150 lightning.

EVs
Ford F-150 Lightning:
$7,500 credit (unchanged)
Ford Mustang Mach-E: $3,750 credit (down from $7,500)
Ford E-Transit: $3,750 credit (down from $7,500)


The Mach-E was already in a pickle, having difficulty competing with the Model Y on price. This is not the right direction for Ford.