Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Long-term as in the rest of 2023. If nothing changes in terms of Tesla's offer and/or the local costs (incentives, electricity tariffs, lease rates), nothing will change on the demand side either.

Why are you chasing your tail? Of COURSE Tesla will adjust it's prices in local markets so that demand meets supply. That's not a demand problem; that's smart business. And careful, the cat is about to pin ur tale doll...

 

[oldTAVguy]

Good twitter thread on Tesla insurance...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643656206618337281

The now is getting people into the eco-system that is Tesla.

 

[Krugerrand]

Hmmm ... its almost as if you have no experience with large enterprise software

Anyway, whatever floats your boat.

It’s an assumption you could make without actually knowing the truth. Not like it doesn’t happen here all the time with a prime example very recently surrounding Antman.

I’m okay using all sorts of devices to float my boat, but mostly easily corrupted human nature is adequate.

 

[Krugerrand]

Ford's EV credits from the IRA have been cut in half for all but the F-150 lightning.

EVs
Ford F-150 Lightning: $7,500 credit (unchanged)
Ford Mustang Mach-E: $3,750 credit (down from $7,500)
Ford E-Transit: $3,750 credit (down from $7,500)

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2023/04/05/ford-confirms-must-have-electric-vehicle-lineup-eligible-for-inf.html

The Mach-E was already in a pickle, having difficulty competing with the Model Y on price. This is not the right direction for Ford.

The Lord government giveth and taketh away.

 

[EVNow]

It’s an assumption you could make without actually knowing the truth.

And the truth is .... ?

I'm not at all surprised many people find it appealing to believe in conspiracy theories. We are all a product of our experiences .... my years of experience with big banks is what I've to go by. As I said ... whatever floats your boat. My last comment on this.

 

[Ogre]

Ford's EV credits from the IRA have been cut in half for all but the F-150 lightning.

EVs
Ford F-150 Lightning: $7,500 credit (unchanged)
Ford Mustang Mach-E: $3,750 credit (down from $7,500)
Ford E-Transit: $3,750 credit (down from $7,500)

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2023/04/05/ford-confirms-must-have-electric-vehicle-lineup-eligible-for-inf.html

The Mach-E was already in a pickle, having difficulty competing with the Model Y on price. This is not the right direction for Ford.

Funny that it took the IRS a bunch of games and BS to come up with guidelines that are damned near identical to the way most of us interpreted the IRA legislation when we read it ~6 months ago. And even that was only after their seriously boneheaded mis-interpretation of the "SUV" definition.

Makes me wonder if someone was trying to buy some time for these guys.

Also very interesting that any of the Lightnings qualify for the full incentive. Obviously a lot of Lightnings are over the price limit, but I guess it's good to see they can get in there.

 

[Ogre]

Good twitter thread on Tesla insurance...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643656206618337281

The now is getting people into the eco-system that is Tesla.

I know this is a funny thing to say, but reading this guys post it looks like insurance will be a ~$50 billion dollar business in 5 years. Solid chance this won't be more than a rounding error by then!

Good to hear it's a possible profit center, but not sure it's going to be a huge needle mover.

 

[cab]

Do we believe the RWD Model 3 tax credit (with its China sourced LFP battery) will drop to just $3750 or all the way to zero come the 18th? It seems to be entirely about the battery, but can't tell if any of the components qualify for the $3750.

 

[kabin]

As all have probably expected, China is considering a rare earth metals export ban in retaliation for Biden's chip ban. Possibly not a big deal for next gen Tesla motors/models but otherwise it could get ugly. It might be years before other players are able to pick up the slack. It sounds like the US still relies on China to process the material even when it's mined stateside.

China weighs export ban for rare-earth magnet tech

 

[Nocturnal]

With Steallantis showing off a 229kWh battery pack to get their hog of a truck to 500 miles this sure would be a good time for Tesla to finally announce the damn final design and specs of the Cybertruck. (150kWh or so to hit that 500+?)

 

[MP3Mike]

Do we believe the RWD Model 3 tax credit (with its China sourced LFP battery) will drop to just $3750 or all the way to zero come the 18th? It seems to be entirely about the battery, but can't tell if any of the components qualify for the $3750.

Tesla seems to be saying only that it will be reduced, not eliminated:

 

[mongo]

Tesla seems to be saying only that it will be reduced, not eliminated:
View attachment 925423

Zero is a reduction.
If they get modules from China CATL, I don't see how half credit is possible.

 

[wipster]

This has probably already been posted, but it deserves a second:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643657845181915137

 

[hobbes]

In an investing context this might be different. Personally I do check the public data regarding top executives of companies I consider for investment. For instance, Elon Musk has had a continuing record of success in difficult and improbable cases from Zip2 on to even The Boring Company. Hence I tend to be cautious before damning Twitter.

Otherwise consider the bench strength in Engineering, design and finance. For every investment I always check Finance because liquidity issues determine ultimate failure ro survival, just ahead of Free Cash Flow.

So, if a fool or two decides that a CEO's purported political views is more important than business acumen, so be it. Rationally trying to typecast a given CEO, in particular Elon Musk, is fraught with inherent danger. After all, he's also beset with antagonistic bots, is he not?
OTOH, he does seem to rather enjoy provocation...he knows that generates many clicks.

As you say, what you describe is about Elon´s ability to be a good CEO - if I understand correctly that is not what @Webeevdrivers was questioning.

The point he was making is that Elon´s political/Twitter persona does alienate some potential and actual customers (myself included). Is that more important for Tesla than him being a once-in a lifetime CEO? Defintitely not.

(I don´t think you misunderstood or misrepresented that, still didn´t quite get your point so wanted to make this clear).

 

[Unpilot]

The point he was making is that Elon´s political/Twitter persona does alienate some potential and actual customers (myself included). Is that more important for Tesla than him being a once-in a lifetime CEO? Defintitely not.

Define alienate.....I find it odd that people say these things.

As I have said before, I don't even agree with myself 100% of the time. So if Mr. Musk says something that I disagree with (Ukraine peace plan) I shrug my shoulders and say "Nope I disagree" ......and move on.

Not sure what @Webeevdrivers and others are on about. I think in the grand scheme, disagreements with Elon are a big nothing burger.

 

[Captkerosene]

Bought today. Don’t know what else to do. Assuming even after Q1 earnings it may still drop or news media probably will spin it another way. Will buy more then. Just can’t see how it won’t be 250 by EOY w CT ramping/SC chargers ramping, other countries now ordering more…. Success of starship launch may help indirectly w brand too.

Lots of things could go wrong:

- Demand could soften just like it did at the end of last year.
- Buyers waiting for HW4, Highlander, FSD, Model Q, CT.
- We're still at war. It could get much worse.
- Banking problems haven't been resolved - just delayed.
- Much higher interest rates.
- FSD, AI setback.
- Ross Gruber gets on the board.

On the other hand, what could go right?

- The share price is strongly correlated to new product rollout. The next two years are going to be monsters. The rest is just noise.
- The "battle for 187" will be won today!

 

[Ogre]

With Steallantis showing off a 229kWh battery pack to get their hog of a truck to 500 miles this sure would be a good time for Tesla to finally announce the damn final design and specs of the Cybertruck. (150kWh or so to hit that 500+?)

Ok... I'd love to know the final final on the Cybertruck too. But we ain't getting it until fairly close to deliveries. Ram to get people interested to fend off Cybertruck/ Silverado/ Lightning purchases. Tesla is past that point now. Likely at a launch party turning over the first few vehicles to employees (similar to Cyber Rodeo and Model X refresh launch).

Tesla is definitely not announcing pack sizes when they do unveil the Cybertruck either. They just don't tend to do that. Most likely it'll be announcing the first shipping configuration, and a rough timeline of when the rest of the configurations will ship. (and if any will be dropped)

Tesla doesn't need to build hype for Cybertruck. Nor do they need to build up their reservation list. There is no down-side to waiting. If anything the suspense drives the hype. So don't hold your breath.


PS: I think 500 mile Cybertruck will be more like 185 - 200 kWh. I definitely think we need a "Guess the specs" thread prior to launch night.

 

[Singuy]

Zero is a reduction.
If they get modules from China CATL, I don't see how half credit is possible.

Well they would use harsher language like "disqualifies". This is suppose to help sell cars today before there's a change in the tax credit. If it goes down to zero, Tesla will make sure you know it'll go down to zero and not "reduced".

 

[JRP3]

As all have probably expected, China is considering a rare earth metals export ban in retaliation for Biden's chip ban. Possibly not a big deal for next gen Tesla motors/models but otherwise it could get ugly. It might be years before other players are able to pick up the slack. It sounds like the US still relies on China to process the material even when it's mined stateside.

China weighs export ban for rare-earth magnet tech

MP Materials got some funding for domestic processing of their rare earth production, should be starting this year.

MP Materials Begins Construction on Texas Rare Earth Magnetics Factory to Restore Full U.S. Supply Chain

MP Materials Begins Construction on Texas Rare Earth Magnetics Factory to Restore Full U.S. Supply Chain

mpmaterials.com

 

[mongo]

Well they would use harsher language like "disqualifies". This is suppose to help sell cars today before there's a change in the tax credit. If it goes down to zero, Tesla will make sure you know it'll go down to zero and not "reduced".

Tesla can't know anything until April 18th (or thereabouts). "Anticipated to be reduced" is safer term to use in the face of that uncertainty rather than "will be eliminated".

"Hey, I only bought a car now because you said the credit would be $0, instead it's $3,750. Rabble!"

The options I see for half credit is if sufficient critical minerals are imported to CATL and they make cells/ modules which are then shipped to Tesla. Or CATL ships cells to Tesla and they assemble the modules. However, I don't think that is how it works currently.