Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Tesla can't know anything until April 18th (or thereabouts). "Anticipated to be reduced" is safer term to use in the face of that uncertainty rather than "will be eliminated".

"Hey, I only bought a car now because you said the credit would be $0, instead it's $3,750. Rabble!"

The options I see for half credit is if sufficient critical minerals are imported to CATL and they make cells/ modules which are then shipped to Tesla. Or CATL ships cells to Tesla and they assemble the modules. However, I don't think that is how it works currently.

Ford seems to know, I can't imagine Tesla doesn't know from this point by now.

 

[Nocturnal]

Ok... I'd love to know the final final on the Cybertruck too. But we ain't getting it until fairly close to deliveries. Ram to get people interested to fend off Cybertruck/ Silverado/ Lightning purchases. Tesla is past that point now. Likely at a launch party turning over the first few vehicles to employees (similar to Cyber Rodeo and Model X refresh launch).

Tesla is definitely not announcing pack sizes when they do unveil the Cybertruck either. They just don't tend to do that. Most likely it'll be announcing the first shipping configuration, and a rough timeline of when the rest of the configurations will ship. (and if any will be dropped)

Tesla doesn't need to build hype for Cybertruck. Nor do they need to build up their reservation list. There is no down-side to waiting. If anything the suspense drives the hype. So don't hold your breath.


PS: I think 500 mile Cybertruck will be more like 185 - 200 kWh. I definitely think we need a "Guess the specs" thread prior to launch night.

They are crash testing them now. That suggests design is finalized (unless they find something majorly wrong). If they actually plan on deliveries this summer they need to let buyers know what they will be paying soon.

If the CT has a 200 kWh battery then I'm not sure that's a success. The whole point of the design was to be efficient vs a legacy style truck.

 

[thx1139]

This has probably already been posted, but it deserves a second:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643657845181915137

As I expected many moons ago. Time to bring the Model 3 LR back.

 

[wipster]

<snip>
If the CT has a 200 kWh battery then I'm not sure that's a success. The whole point of the design was to be efficient vs a legacy style truck.

If it has a 700 mile range I'd say that would be a success... but I doubt seriously that either the battery or the range will be that high ;-)

 

[cliff harris]

I cannot see Elon allowing the company to make a consumer vehicle that would consume 200kwh of batteries. The opportunity cost in terms of model 3s and Ys they could fill with them is way too high.
Besides, Teslas dont need that sort of range. We actually have a supercharger network that works .

 

[MP3Mike]

Besides, Teslas dont need that sort of range. We actually have a supercharger network that works .

There is this thing called towing, especially in cold weather, that cuts range in half. (There are also people that want to go off road to places where the Supercharger network doesn't yet exist, assuming it ever will.)

So yes, there absolutely needs to be a Cybertruck with something close to a 200kWh battery pack available.

 

[madodel]

This has probably already been posted, but it deserves a second:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643657845181915137

Considering how hard they worked to lock Tesla out and in the end all the compliance producers seem to be the ones getting the short end of the carrot. Karma.

 

[AndrewZ]

I'm amazed something like the F150 Lightning will quality for the full credit under the critical mineral percentages. In terms of the manufacturer knowing or not at this point, I think the onus is on the manufacturer to tell the IRS what vehicles will qualify under the guidance, so maybe it does make sense that they would know already.

This will have the full list of qualifying vehicles including the exact credit amount, to be updated on 17-April

Federal Tax Credits for Plug-in Electric and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles Purchased in 2023 or After

Save up to $7,500 on qualifying vehicles!

fueleconomy.gov

 

[oldTAVguy]

The competition is coming, Audi has expanded their charging network 50%. WOW!!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643715672474542088

 

[InTheMiddle]

There is this thing called towing, especially in cold weather, that cuts range in half. (There are also people that want to go off road to places where the Supercharger network doesn't yet exist, assuming it ever will.)

So yes, there absolutely needs to be a Cybertruck with something close to a 200kWh battery pack available.

Towing is something that is often under-appreciated until it is used. Last weekend was my first experience towing with my 2017 100D Model X, and on flat straight roads in very nice weather the range was cut in approximately half. Tow dolly + vehicle on it resulted in high drag; even keeping it at ~55mph on freeways...I had not anticipated such a great reduction in range, although I must say the handling was absolutely stunning compared to all prior towing experiences with other vehicles over the years! I was only able to avoid a mid-trip unhitch / rehitch because < 2 weeks prior a new large supercharger location opened up midway between my start and destination, and the first 6 (of 28) were empty when I arrived, so I was able to pull alongside them long enough to charge sufficiently to reach my destination.

The experience A) reaffirmed my desire for greater and greater range for the CyberTruck, and B) demonstrated the value of large-scale supercharger deployments at truck stops along the freeways with hopefully drive-thru instead of back-in stalls, as Teslas are used for more than just passenger transport. Note: I'm saying these are the *most critical feature ever*...long range even when towing should neither be dismissed as "not needed because everyone just uses their truck to drive around town" nor deemed indespensable because "everyone will tow something everyday", but rather something we all agree some people will need and some people won't, and that's fine.

 

[UkNorthampton]

More pressure on fossils & their PR, indirect support for EVs/Tesla

.https://twitter.com/SDonziger/status/1643726356964835328

 

[mongo]

There is this thing called towing, especially in cold weather, that cuts range in half. (There are also people that want to go off road to places where the Supercharger network doesn't yet exist, assuming it ever will.)

So yes, there absolutely needs to be a Cybertruck with something close to a 200kWh battery pack available.

Indeed! And, ironically, the more efficient the vehicle is on its own, the more towing hurts range; so as a result, a really efficient truck with 250 miles of towing would have even higher than 2:1 solo range.

For example: The RAM EV is around twice the Wh/mile of a Y. An extra 500 Wh/mile due to towing would cut the Ram range in half and the Y's to 1/3.

The opportunity cost in terms of model 3s and Ys they could fill with them is way too high.

Only in a cell limited environment. Tesla is going all out to keep factory capacity as the bottleneck.

 

[Ogre]

They are crash testing them now. That suggests design is finalized (unless they find something majorly wrong). If they actually plan on deliveries this summer they need to let buyers know what they will be paying soon.

If the CT has a 200 kWh battery then I'm not sure that's a success. The whole point of the design was to be efficient vs a legacy style truck.

I am skeptical we get deliveries by summer. Tesla said "Production Start" summer and "Very slow ramp". Remember Tesla had Model Ys rolling around Texas with 4680 cells for months before they started deliveries. If production cranks up in July, figure at least a month of production goes to insiders, test units and crash testing. Then they start building up a little inventory and maybe in August or September they have a launch party, announce specs and pricing, then unlock the config tools for the first batch of lucky bastards.

Deliveries in August is absolute soonest. October - November is most likely. Even that is perhaps optimistic.

As for pack size on the Cybertruck. I tend to agree 200 kWh is on the high side. I use it as a sort of worst case bookmark because it's just barely better with the Lightning. I do think 150 is low. That puts it efficiency wise right about the same as the Model X. That would mean the dual motor 300 mile Cybertruck could have a 100 kWh pack. Seems like a stretch.

 

[growler23]

"Ram 1500 REV" specs appear to have been released. Will be interesting to compare to the CT when all is known.

The biggest story here is the battery range. The REV will offer two battery options. The standard 168-kWh battery will offer a promised 350 miles of range, while the optional 229-kWh battery is said to offer up to 500 miles. That’s pretty impressive. On a powerful enough charger, Ram also says you’ll be able to add up to 110 miles of range in about 10 minutes. And you can use outlets in both the bed and the frunk to power your job-site equipment, with the bed offering 7.2 kW and the frunk offering 3.6 kW.

Some of the other stats: 0-60 in 4.4 secs. Can ford up to 24 inches of water.

Jalopnik link

 

[Zero CO2]

page 20420

and 8-K tsla-8k_20230330.htm

 

[Ogre]

"Ram 1500 REV" specs appear to have been released. Will be interesting to compare to the CT when all is known.

The biggest story here is the battery range. The REV will offer two battery options. The standard 168-kWh battery will offer a promised 350 miles of range, while the optional 229-kWh battery is said to offer up to 500 miles. That’s pretty impressive. On a powerful enough charger, Ram also says you’ll be able to add up to 110 miles of range in about 10 minutes. And you can use outlets in both the bed and the frunk to power your job-site equipment, with the bed offering 7.2 kW and the frunk offering 3.6 kW.

Plot Twist: Cybertruck has same size battery on their 500 mile range truck as the 350 mile range Ram and it comes out 18 months sooner.

Of course when Ram says their truck will have 500 miles range jAloPniK says "That's Impressive". I think on a similar article about Cybertruck Jalopnki would probably say "Tesla claims the Cybertruck will have a 500 mile range". Otherwise they would lose their "Impartial Auto Reviewer" status from their advertisers.

 

[GhostSkater]

With Steallantis showing off a 229kWh battery pack to get their hog of a truck to 500 miles this sure would be a good time for Tesla to finally announce the damn final design and specs of the Cybertruck. (150kWh or so to hit that 500+?)

No way, 200 kWh minimum, and even that is pushing

Putting 200 kWh on a vehicle isn't as crazy to Tesla anymore with the volume of cells they are planning. Stellantis putting their limited battery supply that they pay a lot and do not make in house? Shooting themselves in the foot twice on each

Tesla can do that and have positive margins still, probably really good margins, save cost everywhere else in the vehicle, but not on pack size

On another note, I doubt the RAM will hit 500 miles with 229 kWh

https://twitter.com/x/status/1635741049187434540

 

[jerry33]

I cannot see Elon allowing the company to make a consumer vehicle that would consume 200kwh of batteries. The opportunity cost in terms of model 3s and Ys they could fill with them is way too high.
Besides, Teslas dont need that sort of range. We actually have a supercharger network that works .

Unless you are pulling a trailer in the Supercharger desert at more than 55 mph, or it's well below zero.

 

[wipster]

Towing is something that is often under-appreciated until it is used. Last weekend was my first experience towing with my 2017 100D Model X, and on flat straight roads in very nice weather the range was cut in approximately half. Tow dolly + vehicle on it resulted in high drag; even keeping it at ~55mph on freeways...I had not anticipated such a great reduction in range, although I must say the handling was absolutely stunning compared to all prior towing experiences with other vehicles over the years! I was only able to avoid a mid-trip unhitch / rehitch because < 2 weeks prior a new large supercharger location opened up midway between my start and destination, and the first 6 (of 28) were empty when I arrived, so I was able to pull alongside them long enough to charge sufficiently to reach my destination.

The experience A) reaffirmed my desire for greater and greater range for the CyberTruck, and B) demonstrated the value of large-scale supercharger deployments at truck stops along the freeways with hopefully drive-thru instead of back-in stalls, as Teslas are used for more than just passenger transport. Note: I'm saying these are the *most critical feature ever*...long range even when towing should neither be dismissed as "not needed because everyone just uses their truck to drive around town" nor deemed indespensable because "everyone will tow something everyday", but rather something we all agree some people will need and some people won't, and that's fine.

Thanks for the real life example, appreciated! So how do you think a 500 mile CyberTruck would do with what you're towing? Enough to consider changing? I get the feeling that a lot of CT's will be used for that purpose. Can't wait to see one with an Airstream behind!

 

[UncaNed]

The competition is coming, Audi has expanded their charging network 50%. WOW!!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1643715672474542088

Gotta admit the charging pedestal looks much more substantial than Tesla's. It even has a black door you can go in and watch the electrons, so I guess that's something, right?

Right??

Towing is something that is often under-appreciated...I was only able to avoid a mid-trip unhitch / rehitch because < 2 weeks prior a new large supercharger location opened up midway between my start and destination, and the first 6 (of 28) were empty when I arrived, so I was able to pull alongside them long enough to charge

Fewer than 6 empty stalls, and it requires some pretty fancy backing up to make those short little charging cables reach your charge port.