Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NicoV]

But if the numbers are correct, hard for me correlate Q1 2023 only being 7,000 more deliveries than Q1 2022

Q4 2021 at 78K, Q1 2022 at 163K and Q2 2022 at 118K: that are very strange numbers. You’d expect a peak in Q4, not a doubling in Q1.
Anyway, the comparison is against a very high Q1 2022 number, the next quarters were much lower if those numbers are to be believed.

 

[insaneoctane]

I wonder if Musk files some of this under the same philosophy that he's expressed regarding lawsuits.

Roughly "I'll fight if I think we're right even if fighting will likely end up being more expensive".

Seems to me for Musk doing the right thing is very important. More important than profit. If he sees the media as corrupt—which seems to be the case—he will not support their model regardless of whether it's the most profitable way.

People support this attitude so long as it agrees with their personal biases. When they separate, they get frustrated and upset.

I wonder too. Seems likely for Tesla to spend marketing dollars "advertising" on Twitter, where Elon knowe that those dollars don't go towards corrupt media.

 

[JRP3]

Where there's a will there's a way...

Edit: Heck, build some type of big ass solar panel canopy that opens on the top in order to load the Conex boxes. Just doesn't make sense to miss out on all that potential energy.

If the numbers don't make sense then it just won't work and I can think of a number of reasons they don't.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Q4 2021 at 78K, Q1 2022 at 163K and Q2 2022 at 118K: that are very strange numbers. You’d expect a peak in Q4, not a doubling in Q1.
Anyway, the comparison is against a very high Q1 2022 number, the next quarters were much lower if those numbers are to be believed.

Yeah I'm actually doing the math in my head and that Q1 2022 number of 163k can't possibly be correct. Fremont wasn't at that level of production for the US market to have those kinds of numbers.

So people can disregard my post

 

[Skryll]

The falcon wing doors are by far the #1 reason my parents want to replace their X with an S. The doors open to inconsistent heights (they almost never open fully) and are therefore constantly causing bumped heads. They like higher ride, higher seats, bigger cargo space, but hate the "flashy, frustrating, and painful" falcon wings so much another x is off the table.

Put normal doors on the X: save a ton of money on motors, sensors, finnicky assembly alignment, and have a vehicle that appeals to more (or at least different) people. Heck, make falcon wings and normal doors like round and yoke. I bet my parents would pay an extra 10k for an X with normal doors (that probably cost tesla 5k less to make).

Anyway, the S is not useless - it's faster, more range, and has doors that don't try to assassinate you.

The falcon wing doors, the easy entry six seats, and the helicopter windshield as well as the luggage capacity and the abundance of power are what made us buy another X long range after the 2016 was totaled by an unskilled test drive. I would not want to give up any of those, and a friend of mine that was sitting in the passenger seat next to me was wowed stating: Must be hard to go back to a car that doesn't have this once you are used to the unobstructed views...

I test drove a neighbors Y long range, and it just wasn't as much fun handling and didnt have as much space and accessibility. For half the cost, still pretty amazing, but still... X for us.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The falcon wing doors, the easy entry six seats, and the helicopter windshield as well as the luggage capacity and the abundance of power are what made us buy another X long range after the 2016 was totaled by an unskilled test drive. I would not want to give up any of those, and a friend of mine that was sitting in the passenger seat next to me was wowed stating: Must be hard to go back to a car that doesn't have this once you are used to the unobstructed views...

I test drove a neighbors Y long range, and it just wasn't as much fun handling and didnt have as much space and accessibility. For half the cost, still pretty amazing, but still... X for us.

“Unskilled test drive” … I probably don’t want to know …

 

[Skryll]

I believe inflation has more of an impact on spending allocation for a typical family than interest rates. Interest rates are here to cause deflation and we already see a pretty solid shift in housing. Interest rates going from 4 to 6% has pretty negligible impact on the monthly payment vs house prices doubling in price. This is the part on the podcast when Musk said "stormy weather ahead" as we see high interest rates and high housing prices at the same time as interest rates lags behind price adjustments. Give it a few quarters when we see solid deflation especially in housing, then the household will be able to free up more budget for a luxury car.

I mean if we are only decreasing prices to 2020 levels to weather this transition while selling 2M cars is one hell of a win in my book.

Uhm... variable rate mortgage here, deflation of home value + inflation of rate means deflation of stock by selling to pay off mortgage earlier, or higher interest rate cash outflow causing less available cash for toys.

 

[GOVA]

So when is this giga shanghai event exactly?

 

[GhostSkater]

Anyone ever found a detailed document detailing the EPA test procedures? I’ve found little on line that really goes into details, and specifically how the 5 cycle tests correction factors get applied

Is this something that is behind a paywall that you have to pay the EPA to have access? Didn’t find a place specifying that

 

[mongo]

Anyone ever found a detailed document detailing the EPA test procedures? I’ve found little on line that really goes into details, and specifically how the 5 cycle tests correction factors get applied

Is this something that is behind a paywall that you have to pay the EPA to have access? Didn’t find a place specifying that

Are you looking for something more than these?

Detailed Test Information

Dynamometer Drive Schedules | US EPA

Edit, or this: Testing at the National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory | US EPA

 

[GhostSkater]

Are you looking for something more than these?

Detailed Test Information

Dynamometer Drive Schedules | US EPA

Edit, or this: Testing at the National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory | US EPA

Thanks, I think the last one is what I wanted, but will have to sit and read carefully, what I didn't find explicitly is if a manufacturer opt in to do the 5 cycle test instead of 2 cycle, how the EPA range is weighted across all tests

Federal Register :: Request Access

Federal Register :: Request Access

 

[Artful Dodger]

Also, there's GOT to be a way to put solar PV on big ships somehow.

You need to do some math (and some googling): Typical container ship uses 56 MW to cruise at 24 knots. At 10 acres per MW, that's 560 acres of solar panels to power that ship (until the sun goes down). Then you STILL need batteries, AND 2x the no. of solar panels to both charge the batteries during the day, and propel the ship.

Care to guess the horizontal area (in acres) of a New Panamax ship?

Spoiler: Size in Acres

1400 ft * 180 ft = 5.78 acres

So a solar array which entirely covers a Panamax ship could provide < 1% of the power required to propel it, and only while the sun is up.

BTW, a Panamax ship is NOT a typical container ship, so power required is even more than this estimate - call it about 1 Section of land (4 quarter-sections), or 2 sections with night running on batteries.

 

[GhostSkater]

Awesome video from Clearnwatt, and I gave up my Cybertruck range estimator career because he killed it

TLDR, with the efficiency Tesla has over similar competitors plus 4680 V2 which might be close to the the initial 98 Wh expected, a single layer 100 kWh pack for 300 miles of range and a double layer 200 kWh for 600 or close to 600 miles of range

Imagine a Cybertruck that is double the efficiency of a Hummer EV, can tow more than Lightning can go not towing, and charge in under 30 minutes, maybe even sub 20 minutes

It will be a better road tripper while towing than similar vehicles not towing

Only people that wouldn't get it over other EV trucks is the ones that are so hell bent on not liking it because else, it's what Franz said in the last interview, why would you get something else that is less safe, less capable and likely paying more for it?

I just disagree on the disengage able motors from Semi tech making it's way into it

For Semi you need to spin the motors fast to be able to keep them from overheating over long climbs at full power, the two acceleration motors have a steeper gear ratio for that

You don't need that on the Cybertruck, and for Tesla, adding motors barely hurt range, for example, Model S LR vs Model S Plaid with the same wheels. Adding a whole new motor and gear reduction loses you a whopping 9 miles of range, not worth the complexity of having a clutch to disengage one or two motors

 

[mongo]

Thanks, I think the last one is what I wanted, but will have to sit and read carefully, what I didn't find explicitly is if a manufacturer opt in to do the 5 cycle test instead of 2 cycle, how the EPA range is weighted across all tests

Federal Register :: Request Access

Federal Register :: Request Access

This may be it:
https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi/P1004F41.PDF?Dockey=P1004F41.PDF

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:

EV and Battery Credits For discussion on recent price cuts.
Go here for discussion on the consequential effect on Tesla’s competitors.

Need for Tesla Advertising / PR Old thread updated to include advertising

Tesla Cargo Ship

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1644599577150988288

 

[cliff harris]

Am I the only one who is shocked elon doesnt visit the factory at least once a year? I think I would want to show my face and keep people on their toes in every major factory the company had, on a regular basis.

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Am I the only one who is shocked elon doesnt visit the factory at least once a year? I think I would want to show my face and keep people on their toes in every major factory the company had, on a regular basis.

Eeehhh Covid pandemic?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Am I the only one who is shocked elon doesnt visit the factory at least once a year? I think I would want to show my face and keep people on their toes in every major factory the company had, on a regular basis.

I'm sure Elon would have turned up if there were quality or volume issues.

Also - It's been pretty hard to get in and out of China over the rona years. He would have had to lock down in China for a week or two before being allowed into the factory - which turns it into a pretty big time commitment.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The Real Reason The Tesla Bot Is The Key To Elon Musk's Master Plan! | The Tesla Space

Our Global economic systems is dependent upon perpetual growth, which requires either productivity increases or a larger labor force. Given that there are certain jobs that people just do not want (ie: grocery store cashier), the future of business depends upon integrating increased automation. In many cases, that means a mobile, general purpose autonomous robot, which is what Telsa is trying to create with it's Optimus project. Well worth a watch:

Cheers!