Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Advertising means, to many people including me, traditional media advertising. What you're referring to is marketing. Tesla does a great job of marketing.

Elon Musk tweets: ".".

Media/social media: "Yesterday Elon Musk sent a mysterious tweet <insert tweet>. This has people speculating on the meaning ... <Tesla/SpaceX Twitter etc> ... <article ends>."

It's cheaper to be the story than the advertising next to the story. Hence all the press releases fed to media to pad out their content.

 

[Singuy]

The cumulative effect of interest rates across finance is likely what creates the real tightening and it flows through everything, but yeah that is the point and what leads to disinflation/deflation.

Decreasing prices to 2020 levels needs to be juxtaposed against commodity prices that are still elevated compared to 2020 and likely higher labour costs, without knowing how exactly the former flows through to procurement. But when prices were low in 2020, Lithium futures were at 30-50,000 CNY/T and all commodities were much lower.

• Copper started 2020 at $2.80, dropped almost down to $2.00, now over $4
• Iron spent 2020 in the $80s, has fluctuated a lot since but currently $120
• Aluminum started 2020 at $1800, dropped to $1500, now $2300
• Nickel at $13.5k, dropped to $10.8k, now $22.7k
• Zinc (also might impact stainless steel prices) started 2020 at $2300, up to $2400, dropped to $1800, now at $2700
• Lithium started 2020 at 54k, went as low as 38.6k, currently at 217.5k (peaked at almost 16x but still almost 6x the low)

Labour costs will be a huge part and this is all offset by efficiency of scale since 2020, but I'd be conservative about what it'll mean for near-term cost and margins

Lets not forget that 2020 had chip shortages, supply chain shut down, increased operating costs due to factory shut downs, and strict covid precautions. So yes scale today is way better than 2020, but 2020 had pretty substantial challenges to cost even though raw materials were not as high.

 

[Rarity]

An electric ship would cut the number of personnel needed during the voyage. (RoLo size ship)

Can you expand on why that would be the case, or direct me to a discussion of this? Is keeping the engine room in good repair such a laborious and expensive task?

By the way, I was surprised to see that manganese was mentioned rarely in MP3. But it was mentioned in the context of longer-range shipping.

 

[insaneoctane]

Seems to me that the SR MY ought to be RWD.....simpler, cheaper, better range, potential for larger frunk....

 

[jerry33]

Can you expand on why that would be the case, or direct me to a discussion of this? Is keeping the engine room in good repair such a laborious and expensive task?

By the way, I was surprised to see that manganese was mentioned rarely in MP3. But it was mentioned in the context of longer-range shipping.

A quick google shows "Engine department is managed by the Chief Engineer and assisted by his fellow engineers. They are the 2nd engineer, 3rd engineer, and 4th engineer. They are supported by the engine crew which is composed of Oiler #1, three Oilers, a Wiper, and an engine cadet." So ten people, plus the staff needed to support them. The total crew is around 25.

 

[mongo]

True enough. My elation comes from several different subjective observations:
-The first descriptions I remember of battery use for massive grid stability and support for solar, wind and legacy leaker plants came from JB around 2012 UIRC. I did not search for the date.
- He led the cell testing, quality control and component strategies for his entire Tesla career.
- with Redwood Materials he’s made excellent progress in recycling economically as well as refining crucial materials.

Frankly my enthusiasm is not so much in his role as a Director but deepening his role with Tesla battery technologies.

I am not denigrating other directors in any respect. They all have different strengths. JB is the only non executive director who provides core technological expertise with a manufacturing focus.

Please do not say “nobody else…has been competent! I made no such implication.
Are you getting enough sleep?

The issue was with the original post you favored "loving" and why people might not: "Finally some competence coming to the BoD"

Plus, board != employee, it's not the board's role to fix DBE issues at the Cathode plant.
From 14A (closest definition I found of role) "The Board is responsible for overseeing the major risks facing Tesla while management is responsible for assessing and mitigating Tesla’s risks on a day-to-day basis."

 

[GOVA]

Advertising means, to many people including me, traditional media advertising. What you're referring to is marketing. Tesla does a great job of marketing.

If you go by the definition book, yes. It does mean that.

Traditional media have changed significantly. Most have changed for worse.

Tesla has been around for a while now and Elon knows the lack of value of 'Traditional Media'.
This is why he purchased dog icon company, not a traditional media outlet like Bezos did.

I truly hope that traditional media does not get a penny from Tesla. Ever.

 

[unk45]

The issue was with the original post you favored "loving" and why people might not: "Finally some competence coming to the BoD"

Plus, board != employee, it's not the board's role to fix DBE issues at the Cathode plant.
From 14A (closest definition I found of role) "The Board is responsible for overseeing the major risks facing Tesla while management is responsible for assessing and mitigating Tesla’s risks on a day-to-day basis."

I apologize I was unclear. I was reacting only to JB.
I understand the BOD role. Still, battery technology is a Major Risk and a huge part of capital expenditures including every part of the entire production cycle. The BOD having better insight into those areas is fundamental to their role. It is 'day-to-day' and 'major risks'.
The BOD, until now, has had little actual non-executive director knowledge of such issues that are fundamental to the Tesla mission.

How on earth could that not be an important addition to the BOD?

 

[Ogre]

I truly hope that traditional media does not get a penny from Tesla. Ever.

I wonder if Musk files some of this under the same philosophy that he's expressed regarding lawsuits.

Roughly "I'll fight if I think we're right even if fighting will likely end up being more expensive".

Seems to me for Musk doing the right thing is very important. More important than profit. If he sees the media as corrupt—which seems to be the case—he will not support their model regardless of whether it's the most profitable way.

People support this attitude so long as it agrees with their personal biases. When they separate, they get frustrated and upset.

 

[Krugerrand]

True enough. My elation comes from several different subjective observations:
-The first descriptions I remember of battery use for massive grid stability and support for solar, wind and legacy leaker plants came from JB around 2012 UIRC. I did not search for the date.
- He led the cell testing, quality control and component strategies for his entire Tesla career.
- with Redwood Materials he’s made excellent progress in recycling economically as well as refining crucial materials.

Frankly my enthusiasm is not so much in his role as a Director but deepening his role with Tesla battery technologies.

I am not denigrating other directors in any respect. They all have different strengths. JB is the only non executive director who provides core technological expertise with a manufacturing focus.

Please do not say “nobody else…has been competent! I made no such implication.
Are you getting enough sleep?

Please reread the original post, your post and then my post. I made no such implications as you’ve indicated above. I CLEARLY suggested that the original post suggested incompetency by other board members, not yours and thus why it shouldn’t have garnered the > 100 loves. I also clearly was for JB so I don’t get your exhaustive explanation why JB good. I was already there. Geesh!

Edit: TY @mongo

 

[Krugerrand]

How on earth could that not be an important addition to the BOD?

Nobody said, implied or suggested otherwise.

 

[MartinAustin]

Central Texas transit leaders eyeing ‘automated vehicle’ roadway | KXAN Austin

Central Texas transit leaders eyeing ‘automated vehicle’ roadway

I'm 15 pages behind at the moment and didn't see this for over 24hrs after you posted it. They've already shelved it!!!

What a dumb idea. Only for failed or incompetent automated driving systems. Proper automated vehicles need to deal with real roads+markings, and real conditions IMO

 

[UncaNed]

An electric ship would cut the number of personnel needed during the voyage. (RoLo size ship)

How many Megapacks needed for a typical long trip one way, I wonder? Also, there's GOT to be a way to put solar PV on big ships somehow.

 

[CorneliusXX]

By now this post should have had >100 Loves! Since I read this in my materials this AM I have been elated! He will be invaluable in many areas, battery issues chief among them.

What do the materials of the most interesting man in the world consist of?

 

[AndrewZ]

I'm 15 pages behind at the moment and didn't see this for over 24hrs after you posted it. They've already shelved it!!!

What a dumb idea. Only for failed or incompetent automated driving systems. Proper automated vehicles need to deal with real roads+markings, and real conditions IMO

I don't know, the idea of an automated corridor actually seems interesting and maybe shouldn't be dismissed in the same sense that trains don't need to conform to road routes/rules.

If an automated corridor could allow much higher speeds of travel and a constant flow of autonomous vehicles between two high-traffic routes, that's something that could provide real benefits soon. Generalized Level 4-5 robotaxis that can actually independently deal with real road conditions and don't need a human behind the wheel thus unlocking massively increased utilization and such, who knows how far away that is.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Not wanting to risk getting sucked into a cesspool of negativity and toxic hate - like some of those other threads turned into.

In truth, we’ve had enough postings in this thread to grasp it’s a mixed bag for people; as it has been since day one of FSDB.

Agreed... it's not for the faint of heart .
Similar to going into the Elon Twitter forums.
Proceed cautiously. Like walking into the pits of despair...

 

[Electroman]

Agreed... it's not for the faint of heart .
Similar to going into the Elon Twitter forums.
Proceed cautiously.

Oh! Tell me about it !!

 

[totoro722]

I don't know, the idea of an automated corridor actually seems interesting and maybe shouldn't be dismissed in the same sense that trains don't need to conform to road routes/rules.

If an automated corridor could allow much higher speeds of travel and a constant flow of autonomous vehicles between two high-traffic routes, that's something that could provide real benefits soon. Generalized Level 4-5 robotaxis that can actually independently deal with real road conditions and don't need a human behind the wheel thus unlocking massively increased utilization and such, who knows how far away that is.

An automated corridor might not be that difficult or expensive. Just standardizing road markings and signage so they can be easily and consistently read by the vehicle would increase the reliability of current FSD quite a bit. Actually, it would sure make sense to do that nationwide if the government really wants to push autonomous driving.

 

[Drumheller]

I honestly think Tesla should do a full redesign of the X with their new manufacturing method but keep the falcon wing doors that makes it possible to retail the X at $80k. Do the whole works, front/rear casting, 4680 so they get the direct credits for the battery production.. Do away with the S entirely and devote the entire production line to the X. With the EV tax credit as it is, the S is useless. At least with the X and a major redesign, it’s somewhat possible to get it down to 80k.

What. What. WHAT?

The Model S is the best Tesla you can buy. Have you driven one? I've had my Model Y for 2.5 years and I still miss my old 2013 Model S P85+, and the Model Y is a great vehicle that is fun to drive. Waiting for the roadster is what keeps me from getting a Plaid S.


Do a barrel roll and think about what you've said.

 

[Dutchie]

They need to do something with the SX pricing in Europe - if I were looking to buy now, I'd compare with the US prices and pass until they follow suit here

View attachment 925865View attachment 925866

Well, considering an import levy of 10% in EU plus VAT of 20%-25% (depending on country, which is included in the price mentioned) the price in Europe seems to be in line with the price in the US.