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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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As far as I can tell from anecdotal experiences, Tesla is overwhelmingly dominating the interest and desire of kids and young adults with respect to vehicles, at least here in the US. As long as that’s still true, I am not concerned about demand.
Will these kids afford to buy new vehicles, and when? By then, will buying a private car be popular, assuming robotaxis will be the norm.

I don't think anyone is discussing Tesla's ability to sell EVs in a distant future, but the best choice for Tesla right now between making people aware of Tesla's advantage over other cars (ICE or EV, on cost, reliability, performance or else) versus cutting prices for all buyers as if people knew EV well already and were only looking for a good deal.

All people means not just the few who can't afford Tesla and need a discount to buy the last vehicles sitting in inventory at end of quarter, but every and each buyers including those who would actuall can pay a high price, in cash, and plan to buy a Tesla anyway.

Having to cut prices for all prospects instead of offering targeted, time-limited discounts to those who could otherwise not buy a car isn't optimal. Cutting prices but not communicating directly to those who don't actually know about Tesla and still plan to buy expensive ICE isn't ideal either.

Tesla's management seem to bet that everyone is already aware of the all the advantages of EVs, their actual long-term cost, and the latest price decreases. It's like they believe that the media (MSM and socail networks) are doing a good job informing people… Twitter's CEO should know better the me, but I keep seeing ads in my feed about great a job the oil industry is doing and about the latest ICE deals around me. And my friends and family keep telling about nice and clean the Lexus and RAV4 hybrid are and how long it will take them to finally get their delivery due to the high demand. Sigh.
 
I'm not surprised, most here in the UK now can barely afford to pay Mortgages & Rents. They can often not afford to fund any sort of retirement provision either, so new cars are pretty far down the list! I get depressed thinking about the current younger generations, how awful life has got for them and how grim their (now very late!) retirements are going to be.

The current age of a new car buyer in the UK is now 54!
Exactly. I'm 35 and haven't own a car in my life. I'd have never though that (I wouldn't have put all my savings in TSLA more than a decade ago). But all my friends, family and colleagues who own a car and are 40 y-o or else plan to postpone any car purchases as long as possible. Most want the cheapest option (my boss chose a Hyundai EV earlier this year because his wife didn't want a "bling-bling" car – and he's a TSLA shareholder!).

It seems as if most new car buyers are rich, old people who keep getting richer and older. But I guess it's different in the US and Elon has a plan.
 
At what point does the p/s ratio (currently at 8 versus AAPL at 7) form a floor in place of the P/E ratio?
View attachment 930484

Well we dipped to a price/sales ratio of about 4 at the beginning of the year. If that holds as a floor the corresponding price based on trailing twelve month sales would be about $110.

If we moved back to a more reasonable P/S ratio of 10 in the current environment we would be looking at a price of $275.

If the economy went back to bull market status we could go back to sporting a P/S ratio of 15 which would have us in the $412 price range.
 
Exactly. I'm 35 and haven't own a car in my life. I'd have never though that (I wouldn't have put all my savings in TSLA more than a decade ago). But all my friends, family and colleagues who own a car and are 40 y-o or else plan to postpone any car purchases as long as possible. Most want the cheapest option (my boss chose a Hyundai EV earlier this year because his wife didn't want a "bling-bling" car – and he's a TSLA shareholder!).

It seems as if most new car buyers are rich, old people who keep getting richer and older. But I guess it's different in the US and Elon has a plan.
UK: The youngsters I know who are getting driving licences are doing it unenthusiastically to please parents. The parents also insist on manual (stick) test/licence & the kids don't see the point. From memory, automatic licence tests now exceed manual ones in the UK (unbelievable to many).

Taxis (group outings), electric scooter hire are common. Deliveries by robots (food, alcohol, McDonalds), other delivery options.

Ten years ago, the average age of people in motorbike shops seemed to me (when visiting) to be 60+. Electric versions and low power ICE scooters might have changed that or perhaps I visited at the wrong time. I'm pretty sure the high-cost ones are sold to an older demographic. Demographics reducing number of youngsters as proportion too (faster in Europe than USA, in general).

New car buyers: Status & interest (tinkering, polishing) & "missed out on when young & poor" vs utility. Utility wins for the money & time poor.
 
I know long term we're just going to do great and as a very long term hodler, this doesn't phase me much anymore, but damn, sometimes I wonder if I should just sell up everything 2 days before each earnings day to rebuy the day after, I'd have made another fortune by now! (Until the first time I ever tried to actually do this, then we'd be up 30% the day after! 😝)

Cheers to the longs, I think under the present circumstances, that was a pretty good earnings Qtr.
For the sake of the rest of us, please try this next quarter. We'd do something for you, like name a thread after you, as an expression of gratitude...
 
Low-interest financing for qualified customers. Match the FED up for down. @CorneliusXX @unk45 thoughts?
It's a hard one to know. I worked in auto finance back in the early 2010s and we used to run subvention programs (cheap interest rate deals) for OEMs that didn't have their own captive finance arms in Australia. We certainly saw a big uptick in auto finance applications for those vehicles while the program was running. It is safe to say it lead to more sales (otherwise the OEM wouldn't offer them) but how much of an increase is unknown to me as some of the increase could be attributable to all the finance applications needing to go through my bank rather than being spread across the finance industry.

The way the cheap rate deal worked in the background is that the OEM would fix the price the dealer could sell the vehicle for (so the dealer couldn't just gouge out the savings the OEM was trying to achieve for the customer), we would also tell the OEM we need a (e.g. 6%) return on the money we lend. Then if the loan was written at (e.g. 1%) to the customer we would calculate the PV of the difference in monthly payment between a 6% loan and a 1% loan and send the bill to the OEM - so we achieved 6% over the life of the loan.
  • Why would the OEM pay a financier rather than just discount the car the same amount - because it supposedly keeps the used price higher for the same model sold in earlier years - therefore not upsetting earlier buyers and because the OEM has to offload all their lease returns from earlier years' leases that are coming to an end (if the used price drops the OEM could make a loss on the sale of the lease return if it is below the residual value they had booked in their financials)
  • Because of this I always saw it as coming from a position of weakness for the OEM as they had to not only effectively cut their margins by paying us the difference, but they also were paying us our profit - so it (arguably) has more of an impact on cash for the OEM than just cutting the purchase price (this potentially could be made up on used sales, customer goodwill, etc - but I didn't have access to that sort of information). That said, the OEMs wouldn't run the deals if they thought there were better ways to make money.
  • OEMs also had to anticipate just how much of a rate drop would be needed to get the cars out the door, the larger the differential to the market rate the more it costs them
  • I usually saw subvention programs being used to clear out end of year inventory - so the OEM was managing inventory, appeasing their dealers, trying to dress up their sales volumes or trying to smooth out the Q1 seasonal lull in vehicle purchases.
For Tesla they would need to do the same thing with a 3rd party financier, use some of their cash hoard to fund the loans directly, or use their line of credit/securitisation platform.
  • The same mechanics would be in play if they used a 3rd party financier and margins would likely be hit the same way as other OEMs - however we are not in an "end of year clearout" scenario that is limited to a few vehicles, the lower rates would likely need to apply to our bread and butter sales. Or we would need to draw some arbitrary line to limit who got the benefit. If it was only high credit score customers they probably already have the cash to buy the vehicle anyway and have access to the best deals already going around.
  • If Tesla funded it in house the volume would be somewhat limited (we wouldn't want Tesla to drain their cash pile too much at the start of a recession while having big CapEx plans), and that money could well be earning more being invested in bonds and other money market funds while rates are high.
  • Tesla also has its line of credit and securitisation platform it could use but there is always a tradeoff somewhere - if they write cheap loans to securitise later they would likely end up having to throw in additional collateral or raise less debt against them.
So long story short, it could probably boost sales (and sale prices) but I don't know if it would make the financial statements look any better. I wouldn't be against them running some tests to see the incremental impact on demand based on reduced interest rates. If a relatively small rate cut induced enough demand then Tesla might find a sweet spot. There will always be some incremental demand increase from offering a better deal.

My personal opinion is that, on average, buyers are a bit scared given their mortgage, food, bills are all going up. It's hard to compete against that with a few bucks off the car loan when they could just hold on to their old car for another year or two and see how the economy pans out (or buy a much cheaper vehicle in the interim).

Here is an example of the impact to Tesla if they offer low rate deals via a 3rd party financier compared to dropping the purchase price. One where the customer gets a real benefit on monthly payments and one where the customer is neutral on monthly payments. It also assumes Tesla is on risk for the residual value as they tend to want to control used vehicle sales.

1682080129831.png
 
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Strange that Tesla raised the price on the X considering the inventory levels that are showing, but I'll take anything that goes against the "we'll sell cars without profit" narrative.

Perhaps they’re signaling the Y/3 market that the price cuts are over, and you better place your order to get the best price. Not sure how many potential buyers notice such subtleties though.
 
Thunderstorm ended soccer practice early and your kid needs to come home? Call an robotaxi.
What happens when everyone does that at the same time? Also I often keep items in my vehicles that I use regularly and it would be annoying to load and unload them every time I get a robotaxi. Plus I don't want to wait for a vehicle to show up, that's not convenient. I can come up with many similar scenarios and think for a very long time those who can afford their own vehicle will continue to do so.
 
It's a hard one to know. I worked in auto finance back in the early 2010s and we used to run subvention programs (cheap interest rate deals) for OEMs that didn't have their own captive finance arms in Australia. We certainly saw a big uptick in auto finance applications for those vehicles while the program was running. It is safe to say it lead to more sales (otherwise the OEM wouldn't offer them) but how much of an increase is unknown to me as some of the increase could be attributable to all the finance applications needing to go through my bank rather than being spread across the finance industry.

The way the cheap rate deal worked in the background is that the OEM would fix the price the dealer could sell the vehicle for (so the dealer couldn't just gouge out the savings the OEM was trying to achieve for the customer), we would also tell the OEM we need a (e.g. 6%) return on the money we lend. Then if the loan was written at (e.g. 1%) to the customer we would calculate the PV of the difference in monthly payment between a 6% loan and a 1% loan and send the bill to the OEM - so we achieved 6% over the life of the loan.
  • Why would the OEM pay a financier rather than just discount the car the same amount - because it supposedly keeps the used price higher for the same model sold in earlier years - therefore not upsetting earlier buyers and because the OEM has to offload all their lease returns from earlier years' leases that are coming to an end (if the used price drops the OEM could make a loss on the sale of the lease return if it is below the residual value they had booked in their financials)
  • Because of this I always saw it as coming from a position of weakness for the OEM as they had to not only effectively cut their margins by paying us the difference, but they also were paying us our profit - so it (arguably) has more of an impact on cash for the OEM than just cutting the purchase price (this potentially could be made up on used sales, customer goodwill, etc - but I didn't have access to that sort of information). That said, the OEMs wouldn't run the deals if they thought there were better ways to make money.
  • OEMs also had to anticipate just how much of a rate drop would be needed to get the cars out the door, the larger the differential to the market rate the more it costs them
  • I usually saw subvention programs being used to clear out end of year inventory - so the OEM was managing inventory, appeasing their dealers, trying to dress up their sales volumes or trying to smooth out the Q1 seasonal lull in vehicle purchases.
For Tesla they would need to do the same thing with a 3rd party financier, use some of their cash hoard to fund the loans directly, or use their line of credit/securitisation platform.
  • The same mechanics would be in play if they used a 3rd party financier and margins would likely be hit the same way as other OEMs - however we are not in an "end of year clearout" scenario that is limited to a few vehicles, the lower rates would likely need to apply to our bread and butter sales. Or we would need to draw some arbitrary line to limit who got the benefit. If it was only high credit score customers they probably already have the cash to buy the vehicle anyway and have access to the best deals already going around.
  • If Tesla funded it in house the volume would be somewhat limited (we wouldn't want Tesla to drain their cash pile too much at the start of a recession while having big CapEx plans), and that money could well be earning more being invested in bonds and other money market funds while rates are high.
  • Tesla also has its line of credit and securitisation platform it could use but there is always a tradeoff somewhere - if they write cheap loans to securitise later they would likely end up having to throw in additional collateral or raise less debt against them.
So long story short, it could probably boost sales (and sale prices) but I don't know if it would make the financial statements look any better. I wouldn't be against them running some tests to see the incremental impact on demand based on reduced interest rates. If a relatively small rate cut induced enough demand then Tesla might find a sweet spot. There will always be some incremental demand increase from offering a better deal.

My personal opinion is that, on average, buyers are a bit scared given their mortgage, food, bills are all going up. It's hard to compete against that with a few bucks off the car loan when they could just hold on to their old car for another year or two and see how the economy pans out (or buy a much cheaper vehicle in the interim).

Here is an example of the impact to Tesla if they offer low rate deals via a 3rd party financier compared to dropping the purchase price. One where the customer gets a real benefit on monthly payments and one where the customer is neutral on monthly payments. It also assumes Tesla is on risk for the residual value as they tend to want to control used vehicle sales.

View attachment 930502
Hard to imagine that this won’t be the post of the day. Thanks @CorneliusXX
 
I looked at twitter for a bit on the arguments between the usual Tesla folks - Gary, Whole Mars, Farzad, and a bunch of other usual suspects, and advertising seems to be the hot topic. While no one directly brought up advertising the conference call, there was a question around Elasticity of demand, which in layman's speak is whether Tesla was seeing an increase in order rate that corresponded with the drop in prices. Of course Elon shot this down with a terse Order rate is greater than production.

There are a lot of people who believe advertising is not needed and I am in this camp too. I also agree that Tesla is doing a lot of marketing, which is distinct from advertising as our resident marketing prof @unk45 has mentioned multiple times. I fully agree with this.

So my question to the professor, or anyone else who cares to chime in is - If you think that Tesla could do something, anything at all (and that includes advertising) to increase demand at the current price point, what could that be. Of course it is not possible to say that without Tesla's proprietary data, so if you want to know a few things about the internal metrics that Tesla tracks, what data points would you be most curious about?
Without doubt this question bedevils all of us in one way or another. In my view without knowing internal data Would not have confidence in a specific opinion. As several people, including Elon and Zach, state often, Tesla has:
1. Global instant data in every location from Google search results (they do buy all Google data, I am sure) so have site visits, dwell time, location of inquiry, addresses sought, click behavior etc from everyone who has not prohibited such information. Theoretically every OEM could have all this too, but realistically only Tesla seems to be using that well. FWIW, Chinese and Japan domestic data have Baidu the primary source, which is similar but not identical. There are numerous limitations on such data sharing, not relevant at this level;
2. As stated by Elon in the Q1 2023 podcast, Tesla has global data on internal orders and sales as they happen. Without any doubt that instant data includes every keystroke that happens on Tesla sites around the world.
3. Certainly Tesla also buys data on social media interactions relevant to Tesla, obviously Twitter is one of those. Each part of that data is parsed for relevance; that is highly specialized work that demands both clever and extensive judgements. This is one reason Alphabet, Amazon, Baidu and Tesla are all deploying AI in search while not discussing it much. [FWIW, those techniques were first deployed in 1996 using a crude LISP expert system, right after year after IPv6]. In present terms these are 'amazingly predictive' of short term buyer behavior.
3. With all that data, combined with actual buyer data in (2) above it is not difficult to assess economy independent demand issues. Thus, Tesla's continuing confidence in purchasing intent is based on substantial evidence. Using only public data it is transparently obvious that they are not imagining that. For example take global brand value:
Keep in mind that Global Brand Value is the product of huge analytics that are themselves deeply biased in favor of the most easily sourced data, so Verizon, for example, benefits by enormously easy data, but no other auto or industrial ranking appear except Tesla.
Notably, every single entity on the list EXCEPT TESLA blows shiploads of money on advertising. So, how can Tesla achieve that exalted status?

So, to the OP question about what we'd want to know, I say all of the above. Especially after the brand value data we also know without doubt that Tesla is perhaps the finest 21st century Marketer in existence. Thus it really takes massive hubris to suggest better ideas in this context.

At risk of exhibiting hubris I will offer suggestions. Candidly I am certain these are all happening now:
1. Expand geographic coverage as soon as possible. That can achieve nearly instant (i.e. within a calendar year) results by tapping parish potential markets right away. The closer the links to existing infrastructure the better. In rough order for the next two quarters open more Greece, Croatia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Turkey and open new stores in Northern California, and across poorly covered parts of the US and Western Europe. NOTE: I'm recommended that they do what they're already doing. Duh!
2. Expand Supercharger access to non-Tesla especially in areas of wealth with little Tesla sales today like Alaska*, making sure to place more stores close by, and convenient access to Tesla drivers. Oops, Duh! again.
3. Do everything possible to encourage other OEM's try to compare themselves to Tesla, denigrate Tesla price competition, and otherwise complain. Duh! the third time!
4. Every chance there is any inventory that can be found anywhere near an inquiry, show available vehicles even if they'd ned to be positioned. OMG, Duh! #4

I might as well face it, I think they're doing a brilliant job, but maybe they ought to promote a bit more, so:
5.They should publicly say that profit margin on cars is less important than more sales so potential customers can begin to understand the direct sales model and contrast with every OEM dealer. Also understand that will really confuse institutional investors and foment glee among shorts while even retail fans who don't understand will panic. Duh! they did that this week!

After all my efforts to think of something better to do I do not have the data to make specific suggestions. Were that data available I am confident that local and regional differences can be optimally addressed. From this perspective I think they may well need improvement in local regional adaptation. Still, in some respects it may be they're already doing that too. I keep seeing things such as color choice beginning to appear in some sensitive markets, and some oddities such as choice of steering wheel vs yoke. Then there are numerous version differences to appeal to different types of buyers, and some specific variants cued to such classes as company car buyers (as @NicoV points out they don't want cheap but tailored to allowances), fleet buyers (rental ones do want cheap, police want bare interior but quick) and so on. Duh! again. They're doing that in many markets but we mostly cannot see that, not least because apart from buyer publicity (e.g. Hertz) nobody really knows.

So there it is. I use lots of words to say, "Wow, every day is a new chapter for business school case studies".


*Edited by SneakyMod
 
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Without doubt this question bedevils all of us in one way or another. In my view without knowing internal data Would not have confidence in a specific opinion. As several people, including Elon and Zach, state often, Tesla has:
1. Global instant data in every location from Google search results (they do buy all Google data, I am sure) so have site visits, dwell time, location of inquiry, addresses sought, click behavior etc from everyone who has not prohibited such information. Theoretically every OEM could have all this too, but realistically only Tesla seems to be using that well. FWIW, Chinese and Japan domestic data have Baidu the primary source, which is similar but not identical. There are numerous limitations on such data sharing, not relevant at this level;
2. As stated by Elon in the Q1 2023 podcast, Tesla has global data on internal orders and sales as they happen. Without any doubt that instant data includes every keystroke that happens on Tesla sites around the world.
3. Certainly Tesla also buys data on social media interactions relevant to Tesla, obviously Twitter is one of those. Each part of that data is parsed for relevance; that is highly specialized work that demands both clever and extensive judgements. This is one reason Alphabet, Amazon, Baidu and Tesla are all deploying AI in search while not discussing it much. [FWIW, those techniques were first deployed in 1996 using a crude LISP expert system, right after year after IPv6]. In present terms these are 'amazingly predictive' of short term buyer behavior.
3. With all that data, combined with actual buyer data in (2) above it is not difficult to assess economy independent demand issues. Thus, Tesla's continuing confidence in purchasing intent is based on substantial evidence. Using only public data it is transparently obvious that they are not imagining that. For example take global brand value:
Keep in mind that Global Brand Value is the product of huge analytics that are themselves deeply biased in favor of the most easily sourced data, so Verizon, for example, benefits by enormously easy data, but no other auto or industrial ranking appear except Tesla.
Notably, every single entity on the list EXCEPT TESLA blows shiploads of money on advertising. So, how can Tesla achieve that exalted status?

So, to the OP question about what we'd want to know, I say all of the above. Especially after the brand value data we also know without doubt that Tesla is perhaps the finest 21st century Marketer in existence. Thus it really takes massive hubris to suggest better ideas in this context.

At risk of exhibiting hubris I will offer suggestions. Candidly I am certain these are all happening now:
1. Expand geographic coverage as soon as possible. That can achieve nearly instant (i.e. within a calendar year) results by tapping parish potential markets right away. The closer the links to existing infrastructure the better. In rough order for the next two quarters open more Greece, Croatia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Turkey and open new stores in Northern California, and across poorly covered parts of the US and Western Europe. NOTE: I'm recommended that they do what they're already doing. Duh!
2. Expand Supercharger access to non-Tesla especially in areas of wealth with little Tesla sales today, making sure to place more stores close by, and convenient access to Tesla drivers. Oops, Duh! again.
3. Do everything possible to encourage other OEM's try to compare themselves to Tesla, denigrate Tesla price competition, and otherwise complain. Duh! the third time!
4. Every chance there is any inventory that can be found anywhere near an inquiry, show available vehicles even if they'd ned to be positioned. OMG, Duh! #4

I might as well face it, I think they're doing a brilliant job, but maybe they ought to promote a bit more, so:
5.They should publicly say that profit margin on cars is less important than more sales so potential customers can begin to understand the direct sales model and contrast with every OEM dealer. Also understand that will really confuse institutional investors and foment glee among shorts while even retail fans who don't understand will panic. Duh! they did that this week!

After all my efforts to think of something better to do I do not have the data to make specific suggestions. Were that data available I am confident that local and regional differences can be optimally addressed. From this perspective I think they may well need improvement in local regional adaptation. Still, in some respects it may be they're already doing that too. I keep seeing things such as color choice beginning to appear in some sensitive markets, and some oddities such as choice of steering wheel vs yoke. Then there are numerous version differences to appeal to different types of buyers, and some specific variants cued to such classes as company car buyers (as @NicoV points out they don't want cheap but tailored to allowances), fleet buyers (rental ones do want cheap, police want bare interior but quick) and so on. Duh! again. They're doing that in many markets but we mostly cannot see that, not least because apart from buyer publicity (e.g. Hertz) nobody really knows.

So there it is. I use lots of words to say, "Wow, every day is a new chapter for business school case studies".
I think they should put big rotating neon Tesla signs up at all their supercharger stations - like McDonalds does.
 
I mean... Roadster 2 launched by Starship seems the obvious choice....


Just to be pedantic though- the original car wasn't launched to Mars- it was launched to a heliocentric orbit...that orbit crosses the orbit of Mars, but at a lower inclination so it can't ever meet the planet-(and lacked any upper stage controls to enter orbit of or land on mars even if it was going to ever get near it) - instead it'll just keep circling the sun
It bothers me that they call "Starship" that; it is to go to planets, not stars.

Let's hold off till we can launch an actual production model Roadster to actually drive around on Mars.
 
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You give the market too little credit. They will just wait on the sidelines till the next price reduction.

You mean like the way buyers waited on the sidelines while the prices rose because it was so obvious that Tesla was exploiting supply shortages?
Or the way that buyers refuse to pay the inflated prices on larger vehicles because they know that the larger vehicles don't _really_ cost that much more to make?
 
  • Funny
Reactions: navguy12
... but the only avenue I agree with Gary is they need to take a play out of Volvo's playbook and basically highlight you cannot buy a safer car,

Elon has mentioned advertising in only an educational format, Charging is the one area people still think its a commuter car. They need to highlight people like myself that have gone from white knuckling 8 hour drives and showing up exhausted, to showing up in 9.5 hours a sociable person. If I have to hear another person from my region say the phrase....I won't buy one unless I can drive 500 miles without stopping...my midwesterners need to drink more water.
From 1956 when Ford tried to sell seat belts, following Volvo's introduction it has been clear that safety does not sell cars. Raising Volvo, a company that has failed and been rescued repeatedly, and still struggles with Geely is really a BAD idea. (note: I do own an XC40 Recharge).

On the charging issue Tesla has been doing the 21st century approach, letting every EV owner have a sample of 'the Tesla life'. That generates all the publicity and allows people to gradually change views without trying 'logical advertising' approach. Here @phoggy123 has crisply pointed out the huge dilemma. Understanding that nearly every vested interest wants to impede understanding how practical long distance Tesla's can be, the only way to begin the process is informally, with non-Tesla use of Tesla infrastructure. Slow, yes, but...
The direct 'fact checker' approach is direct and emotionally satisfying. The problem is that by taking that approach the people you're trying to convince are reinforced in their suspicions.
That reality is easiest to see in politics where 'fact checkers' end out reinforcing the very thing they've proven is false. BEV limitations are very much seen in that context. Because of that illogical but true problem, the best approach is simply to have unsponsored, mostly undiscussed demonstrations.