Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

Bullish when David Trainer comes out of the woodworks, since when was he one of the 'leading' analysts ever???

Tesla’s coming crash: As 7 analysts lower their price targets, one predicts the stock is heading to $28

David Trainer of New Constructs believes the selloff in Tesla shares isn’t remotely big enough to bring the EV king’s stock in line with its fundamentals.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

If paying for FSD gave me insurance rolled in I'd be much more willing to subscribe to FSD

Roll in some Supercharging and Premium Connectivity, and you got a deal! Where do I sign?

 

[Unpilot]

Bullish when David Trainer comes out of the woodworks, since when was he one of the 'leading' analysts ever???

Tesla’s coming crash: As 7 analysts lower their price targets, one predicts the stock is heading to $28

David Trainer of New Constructs believes the selloff in Tesla shares isn’t remotely big enough to bring the EV king’s stock in line with its fundamentals.

finance.yahoo.com

View attachment 930577

Tried to find ONE positive article/post by Trainer in regard to Tesla.....I failed.

 

[JupiterMan]

We should make our own Tesla commercial since Elon doesn't want to. Dan O'Dowd spent $600k to air his Super Bowl ad which is not really that much. I bet many share holders would consider putting down some money for such effort and focus mainly on affordability.

The stock tanking really messes with my head

If Tesla did a local advert in only few areas like Dan the Clown they would be ridiculed. Tesla is a global player, and any effective campaign would need to be global, across different media and expensive.

Twitter advertising and Elon's tweets is also cheap for Tesla and we also know from Super Bowl last year that OEM advertising directly increased traffic to Tesla website. I say let that continue and let OEMs pay for it for now.

As for the tanking part, volatility is a normal part of investing and should be expected,

Those who choose to tag specific reasons for any decline in share price are often wrong or misled. Some try to give reasons to demonstrate to clients/media that they are on top of it to justify their jobs/positions. Others do this to justify any loss in their own heads or to to friends and family who they have recommended TSLA stock to.

But in truth nobody knows the full reason for any price drop, and in fact there may be more than one reason, including sentiment and heard mentality which are often random and unpredictable when share price goes down (or up).

That's not to suggest that what people say does not have any merit (i.e. advertising), but to say that their conclusions are not necessarily a simple remedy to put the share price back again.

Best advice is from Douglas Adams: Don't Panic.

 

[mongo]

Lol, seriously, if I understand correctly* the new U.S. "Alternative Minium Corporate Tax" is 15% as of Jan 1st, 2023. So to maximize growth, Tesla might aim to make ~15% operating margin (taxable income?) but any higher income rate is a waste of $$ that could otherwise be used to grow the business (rather than the gov't).

Cheers!

*Caveat on EV battery makers IRA tax exemptions. IIRC, @mongo informed us that certain tax structures enacted via the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) allow U.S. based battery manufacturing to lower a company's effective tax rate to slightly below the nominal 15%. In that case, Tesla could further divert income to growth, and away from U.S. taxes (building new Bty making capacity is what the law is designed to encourage). Do I have that about right?

Hummm....
I've no idea on how corporate minimum tax works, or bookkeeping of income vs CapEx.
What I do (think I) know is that companies can sell their IRA manufacturing credits as a non-taxable transaction. So, theoretically, even if they can't lower their tax, they can pay for it with the credits (if someone is willing to buy them at a discount).

 

[Christine69420]

Isn't that basically EAP, which was reintroduced to Europe back in '21 exactly in hopes of addressing lack of FSD take? Or do you mean you want a version of city streets, specifically?

Nope. In Europe we have basically the old autopilot like it was before the new FSD BETA branch was started.

So all the FSD videos from BETA users look completely unreal. And what I want. Even if they have to nerf if a bit.

EAP will give you highway lane change but with manual confirmation. The old summon which require you to stand beside the car. And autopark.

Not worth the $3000 they want for it. I would perhaps get it if it was $10.

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla, Microsoft & Uber

Motley Fool - yesterday:

Prediction: These Will Be 3 of the Most Valuable Stocks by 2050

 

[Stretch2727]

Fascinating, Toyota. Plan sounds like:
1) Sell our terrible bz4x (and subsequent of that line), despite their suckiness, because we have them now.
2) Redesign an EV platform from the ground up, 15+ years after Tesla did (target 2026).
3) Use structural packs and software "frosting" (???) to achieve massive scale, 3.5 million EVs by 2030.

The mind boggles at the vast aspirational vision embedded in the fundaments of this plan. Truly.

Even if they hit 3.5M EV by 2030 they will be much smaller company.

I would more confidence in their plan if they had a clear strategy for what they are NOT going to do. They need to stop the hydrogen investment and stop investment in ICE. They need all hands on deck pointing in one direction. From best I can tell, they are still trying to do everything which likely means nothing will be best in class like we have seen with the BZ4X. Even GM has more focus on EV's than Toyota by dropping PHEV and some clear plans to stop producing ICE.

 

[MountainRatMat]

Quite a drop from yesterday's $182.5. Have not seen a drop like that in a loooong time.

Really? I feel like not too long ago we were hovering around $100/share. I guess timeline is all relative.

 

[FastEddieB]

Roll in some Supercharging and Premium Connectivity, and you got a deal! Where do I sign?

Maybe something vaguely similar to the Apple One model?

I gladly pay for the Premiere plan, shared across family members, though I only utilize maybe 4 of the 5 features on a regular basis.

 

[MountainRatMat]

Tesla, Microsoft & Uber

Motley Fool - yesterday:

Prediction: These Will Be 3 of the Most Valuable Stocks by 2050

Really? Uber? A glorified taxi company that can't even make any money?

 

[FastEddieB]

Those who choose to tag specific reasons for any decline in share price are often wrong or misled. Some try to give reasons to demonstrate to clients/media that they are on top of it to justify their jobs/positions. Others do this to justify any loss in their own heads or to to friends and family who they have recommended TSLA stock to.

But in truth nobody knows the full reason for any price drop, and in fact there may be more than one reason, including sentiment and heard mentality which are often random and unpredictable when share price goes down (or up).

That's not to suggest that what people say does not have any merit (i.e. advertising), but to say that their conclusions are not necessarily a simple remedy to put the share price back again.

I think we’re all too often…

 

[oldTAVguy]

Really? I feel like not too long ago we were hovering around $100/share. I guess timeline is all relative.

MAX PAIN. The one day drop in Max Pain was that I was refering to, not the actual stock price. It takes a lot of effort by the MMs to move that many options and make that difference, with 1,635,119 open contracts.

 

[Curt Renz]

It’s a monthly options expiration day, greater interest than a weekly but less than a quarterly. My survey of today’s TSLA options activity suggests that $165 would be the most profitable target for large option writers (hedge funds & market makers) with the ability to temporarily manipulate the TSLA share price.

 

[Ogre]

Based on avg 20K/yr mileage, that's 4 cents a mile for $2,500. That's some cheap charge right up in there! (I'd buy it just to do the Grand Tour!)

For some reason I was remembering it as 3,000 miles free charging not 3 years. Yeah, that is nice.

 

[JRP3]

Things may be going better than we knew at Buffalo.

Tesla is planning to spend $3.5 million to build a 570-space parking lot on mostly vacant land next to its Riverbend plant at 1339 South Park Ave., South Buffalo, according to documents filed with the city's Office of Strategic Planning.

The proposed site for the 22.5-acre is east of the factory, between the building and New Abby Street. An electric substation on the site will need to be relocated.

https://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/news/2023/04/20/tesla-buffalo-gigafactory-parking-lot-extension.html

 

[Etna]

In Canada as of last night the shorter range model Y is now available. As well the AWD long range is now available for the 5000 dollar federal grant (as well as the shorter range). The Mustang Mach E’s are piling up on the ford lots here.

What's really interesting is that the Model Y SR being offered in Canada is the RWD/LFP currently sold in China and Europe rather than the AWD/4680 produced in Austin.

If I am not mistaken, the RWD/LFP variant is currently only being produced in China.

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters - 13:43 EDT:
California jury finds Tesla Autopilot did not fail in crash case

 

[NicoV]

Interesting article on Yahoo finance: Tesla price cuts offer long-term benefit to Mercedes, BMW: analyst

The reasoning is that Tesla lowering prices is good for BMW and Mercedes. By keeping their prices high they will remain ‘premium’ car manufacturers, and the plebs will buy Teslas.

Let me paraphrase this: Mercedes and BMW will transition from a 2M+ cars/year premium car manufacturer to a 500K cars/year car manufacturer by targeting the ‘more money than brains’ demographic.

 

[Ogre]

Tesla is launching their first Model Y RWD in Canada.

First time since launch we’ve seen RWD model Y in North America. First time we’ve seen LFP Model Y in North America at all I think?

Also lowers price of the LR so both meet Canadian rebate requirements.

Tesla definitely eliminating that price umbrella they left for competitors.

Tesla releases rebate eligible Model Y RWD with LFP batteries in Canada, Long Range now also qualifies for rebate

Tesla Model Y sales in Canada are about to get a big boost as a new lower priced and rebate eligible Rear-Wheel Drive (RWD) variant has been released north of the border. Since it is […]

t.co