TrendTrader007
Active Member
Exactly! you hit the nail right on head
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I believe it's all. There aren't many places left in the nation that aren't on TOU or at least aren't moving towards that. All of the big utility companies (more than a few 100k customers) have smart meters which are the real requirement for TOU pricing. (aside from regulatory approval of course)
Part of my job is building rates in Utility billing systems. I can't wait for my local utility to offer me a nice TOU rate as I have a good bit of automation in my home and the Tesla which can help me move demand to off-peak fairly easily.
Not so fast.
Just rewind to Q4 deliveries report two weeks ago, which was actually a beat, but was FUDed into a miss, and the stock dropped 10% intra-day. So remember, shorts with the help of MSM - the DHull's and CGrant's out there can move the stock short-term in any direction they want.
You are just a pawn in this game
Agreed. The failed vote today is mostly priced in, imho.
Alphacrux
Member
How will the SP react if/when they confirm in the ER that "Q1 deliveries will be down sequentially due to vehicles in transit to Europe". The bears will paint it as "No demand for Model 3 in the US". Bears will try to control this narrative. What are your thoughts on positive news (upcoming Model Y reveal, international expansion, etc) overcoming bear FUD?
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Silly girl...you don't have cake for a 420 party. You have brownies of course!!! LOLWe all know that $400 isn't the real number for Tesla
We all need to throw "TSLA 420 parties" (with meetups where possible) when we hit that milestone, and share pictures on social media. Preferably including tagging short sellers in the posts
I already know how I plan to decorate my cake
Dan
Tesla can be expected to play the expectations game with Q1 deliveries in the Q4 report and/or call. One expects them to clearly lay out an expected low Q1 US deliveries figure and then lay out how they expect that to improve in the future.
Lawrence Fossi already said this in this podcast with another bear.
"Q1 deliveries will be low due to low demand with Fed tax credit reduction, but Tesla will make up a story that it was all due to cars in transit to Europe and China. I guarantee it" (paraphrased)
Who says there will be cars in transit to Europe and China at the end of Q1? If they produce European and Chinese cars up to mid February these can all be delivered in time. From mid February they can start producing cars for NA and deliver these in time as well. Q2: rinse and repeat.
Drumheller
Active Member
This post is evidence of how effective the media is in shaping perceptions
The US media is a giant pile of *sugar* that should not be trusted.
Buried in the article is the key phrase "Older firms such as Ford and VW are also being forced to catch up with newer, tech-focused firms such as Uber and Tesla in developing self-driving and electric cars."
Ford and VW agree alliance to build vans
Ford and VW agree alliance to build vans
That's how they've usually operated with MS/S for many years
mspohr
Well-Known Member
This just shows how far ahead Tesla is on EVs and self-driving. The failing old line automakers are desperate to catch up but they are having difficulty making the required investments.
Driver Dave
Member
This is the start of all old ICE car companies starting to fold into each for survival.
The problem is when your tech and resources are all antiquated, pooling them together doesn't help.
In mobile, MS+Nokia still turned out be nothing.
0+0=0
I'm in for buying everyone a real beer at $1000.
Most people consider buying a new car when their current car starts developing problems or the mileage becomes excessive, not so much because of rebates or tax credits. I am in that camp and have not yet bought a Tesla car, despite having a Model 3 reservation for nearly three years and having the necessary electrical outlet installed in the garage when my home was built in 2016. I correctly assumed there would be a price reduction with new year 2019, thus the reduction in the tax credit was mostly covered. Meanwhile, hardware improvements are added as soon as possible rather than with a new model year, which can benefit those who wait a bit.
Late last month I was told by a senior Tesla sales agent that the most popular Model 3 configurations currently produced will continue to be stocked in inventory for immediate delivery during 2019. Potential customers in need of a new car no longer have to wait. That's welcome news because typical car buyers do not have the patience of early adopters. In many cases Model 3 customers did not earn enough last year to qualify for the full tax credit, so they should still be pleased with the half credit. Of course many are still waiting for the less expensive short range version. I'd expect that in the spring there will be another push to entice folks to take advantage of the half credit. Concern about missing out on the full credit will be long forgotten. Meanwhile, word of mouth advertising keeps growing louder and louder.
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Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Let them say whatever they want. At this point they are just making themselves look more and more desperate and pathetic. Tesla will keep doing what they do. Build out Giga 1 and 3. Open European and Asian markets. Release Autopilot hardware 3. Premier Model Y and Pickup (maybe). Start Semi production. Etc. etc. etc.
Bears are trying desperately to save their shirts. The FUD will comically run thick and hot this year.
Dan
Just thinking out loud here, curious what others think about this:
If the stock is trading in the mid-to-high $300s – say, $360ish – and there are bits within the ER data that give something for bears to sink their teeth into, however ephemeral that may be, such as low Q1 US deliveries, or high numbers of in-transit vehicles, I think it’s possible we may not get the pop for which we’re hoping post ER call.
Think about where the stock was trading just prior to the Q3 call, where expectations for that report were relative to what they actually were. Now, the stock is trading much higher relative to recent lows, and expectations are higher. There is less room for upside, and more of it may be priced in going into the call -- think about the buying action that's been taking place since shortly after the P&D; that happened on the backside of the Q3 call. I think that in order for us to get the spectacular jump we’re hoping for we’ll need a very solid beat (I’m crossing my fingers for $3.50 EPS non-GAAP) and continued substantially positive guidance for 2019.
The counterargument, I suppose, is that two solidly profitable quarters, with continued sustained profits forecast for 2019 and beyond, is enough.
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