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IMHO, still no better company than Tesla to invest in, just trying to be realistic.
@TrendTrader007, I remember when you first started posting here on TMC back in 2016. I and many other TMC regulars thought your price projections where outlandish, almost absurd. Most of them came true, so good on you. TSLA has just been dialled back a notch or two. Time will clearly show Tesla's true worth.
I had forgotten about most of that, relevant though it obviously is! When I originally bought TSLA it was not entirely lacking in analysis, but was based on perhaps spurious logic.
At the time, late 2012 early 2013, I drove a Model S85 for a few days around the San Francisco area when I was attending an investors conference. My passengers and I were blown away. I thought about the California compliance BEV's (I drove the EV1, Honda EV Plus earlier and, later, the second generation Toyota RAV4 EV with Tesla, agin later the Mercedes Benz B-Class). I then thought about how wonderful the S85 was and how both Toyota and Mercedes Benz were shareholders. Then, I thought Tesla could and probably would fail but it would be snapped up by one of those two shareholders and life would be rosy. After all that Model S had Mercedes suppliers for the two cooling systems, most switchgear and much else, so Mercedes was a logical choice, while Toyota gave the Fremont factory and seemed a logical choice too. After all they both sold Tesla-powered cars.
Back then my logic was it would be hard to lose with those potential exit strategies. The idea that Tesla would itself succeed where Kaiser could not (I was born in deeply Kaiser country in a Kaiser hospital with a family who thought Kaiser-Frazer would rule the world-my age is the same as Kaiser Permanente also) seemed preposterous to me, even though I know about and was impressed by Zip-2 and PayPal, having invested in the latter when virtually ordered to do so by a client. This may be 'too much information' but it does set the stage for early investors, perhaps many of us.
While the PayPal and later Tesla investments happened i no longer lived in the US so I watched at long distance. PayPal landed with eBay, so I sold. TSLA I continued to watch.
The came the P85. OMG, I ordered one and True, I bought a place in Miami to keep the car. They offered me a P85D instead so I took it. A few weeks later I began to liquidate reserves and buy TSLA. By then I was prepared to assume the risk, after all Tesla was not yet dead and had just made massive improvements since 2012, and on my first long trip with the P85D autopilot came in a software update while I was charging my car at a hotel in Columbus, Ohio. (by then, every human who saw an electric car made gigantic adaptations to help charging, including that hotel which connected me to an outlet used for outside lighting). By the end of that trip I had already liquidated much of my other commitments and loaded up on TSLA.
Nearly everyone thought I was crazy. I responded, "probably, but this one will work out well, with acrobatics maybe, but well" (actual quotation from my correspondence). I've been HODL ever since and will remain so unless Tesla begins to act like a traditional OEM, Hence I watch closely and stay long.
I know several people who've tried more active instruments, but all of the ones I know who did that lost everything they'd 'invested'. Only one I know is still trading actively in TSLA. He is actually with a market maker so he's not actually speculating. That shows in his residences and transportation choices. Were I a market maker I'd trade too. It's nice to be the house!
Now looking at the near future we will have more volatility, zero doubt. We may even, if the recession(s) are sufficiently severe reduce prices further and adopt more leasing options. We'll also see Tesla Energy continue with explosive demand. The future will not be either easy nor pleasant in many aspects but TSLA now is in a closely analogous position to that of General Electric in the 1930's. Innovation will prevail (GE moldable plastic in 1930, rapid electrification, electric refrigerators and so on). Tesla is right at the cusp of that sort of advance. So, recession can be an opportunity when the products are correct.
Please think about the prior paragraph when you worry about Tesla having reduced demand.
People thought that about GE too. Personally I think that might have been J. Pierpont Morgan's best idea, and Thomas Edison's best initial products.
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