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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Several posters are banking on the cybertruck selling in huge numbers. I didn't realize it is going to be the size of a Ford Raptor. Will that many people want a truck that size? I think the cybertruck will have a lot of cool features but I'm starting to wonder how many will be sold.
Americans love big cars. The bigger the better. In fact I feel that lots of Americans ended up getting a CUV or a small truck because they couldn't afford a big one. If all things equal, Americans will drive a tiny home if they can...actually many started doing that, along with campers and RVs.
 
Several posters are banking on the cybertruck selling in huge numbers. I didn't realize it is going to be the size of a Ford Raptor. Will that many people want a truck that size? I think the cybertruck will have a lot of cool features but I'm starting to wonder how many will be sold.
Yes many people will want a truck that size. In fact, they already do. The Cybertruck and the Raptor are about the same dimensions as the F-150, the best-selling truck every year for the last four decades. Cybertruck is squarely aimed at the most popular segment for North American truck demand.
 
TSLA hit exactly $165.00 as the intraday high at 1:00 p.m. ET. Capped there for 3 hrs, and over 7 million shares traded during the 4:00 o'clock minute. @oldTAVguy @Papafox

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Meanwhile, QQQ (U.S. Tech macros) ran up 0.32% in the final 20 minutes of the session, and Closed at it's intraday high:

View attachment 932782

TL;dr it helps to look at actual events before confirming your own cognitive biases. :p

Cheers!
Wrote my weekend Daily Charts post before I saw this post of yours, and in it I said the market makers were doing the whack-a-mole on TSLA any time it threatened to climb above 165. We are in agreement. Cheers!
 
Several posters are banking on the cybertruck selling in huge numbers. I didn't realize it is going to be the size of a Ford Raptor. Will that many people want a truck that size? I think the cybertruck will have a lot of cool features but I'm starting to wonder how many will be sold.
It‘s not going to be sold in large numbers relative to what the model Y sells. Unless it has been updated, I recall the original plan was for the CT production line to be several hundred thousand per year once ramped in Texas. I don’t have worries about Tesla being able to sell that capacity - pre orders alone will account for many many quarters of deliveries.

It will likely have a very healthy Average Selling Price though, especially in the first couple of years when it will be mostly high trim models being sold, so it will be somewhat of a cash cow, bringing in significantly more revenue & gross profit than the S&X do combined globally.

Will also do wonders for the brand seeing these monsters driving all over.

But it Is gong to be the next generation car platform starting with GigaMexico that is going to drive the massive growth in Tesla Auto in the near future, not CT.
 
Is it mad to wonder if there is a possibility of the US military or police being interested in the cybertruck? I'm sure some PDs would like to be able to buy an efficient, fast vehicles that just so happens to be bulletproof. Military applications also pretty obvious.
And if you go down that line of thought, could it not be sold to militaries around the world?
 
Is it mad to wonder if there is a possibility of the US military or police being interested in the cybertruck? I'm sure some PDs would like to be able to buy an efficient, fast vehicles that just so happens to be bulletproof. Military applications also pretty obvious.
And if you go down that line of thought, could it not be sold to militaries around the world?
It's not military bullet proof, just local gangsta bullet proof.
 
Is it mad to wonder if there is a possibility of the US military or police being interested in the cybertruck? I'm sure some PDs would like to be able to buy an efficient, fast vehicles that just so happens to be bulletproof. Military applications also pretty obvious.
And if you go down that line of thought, could it not be sold to militaries around the world?

Logical thought, but making the Cybertruck suitable for military use will add an enormous amount of weight.
The Australian Bushmaster vehicle that is in use in The Netherlands for example, has windows >20 mm thick.
If I recall correctly 30 mm, giving protection against 5.56 and 7.62 caliber, but being very heavy.
That will impair range substantially, but I am pretty sure the military of many nations will have a look at the Cybertruck to see what is possible.
Being silent and having no big warmth signature are big advantages in military use compared to ICE vehicles.
 
Several posters are banking on the cybertruck selling in huge numbers. I didn't realize it is going to be the size of a Ford Raptor. Will that many people want a truck that size? I think the cybertruck will have a lot of cool features but I'm starting to wonder how many will be sold.
Just look at how many trucks are on the road. Look at the sales data.

Then consider this little anecdotal account: I talked to a Rivian owner in a parking lot. He told me he always wanted a truck but couldn't justify it with his long commute. An efficient electric truck he figured was justifiable.
 
Good news, Gary has made it to depression:
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Only one more step to go.
 
The New South Wales state government here in Australia recently held an auction for long duration 8 hour storage. It was widely expected that pumped hydro would win the tender as nearly all of the big batteries installed here to date have been only 1 to 2 hour duration and there is plenty of hydro being developed. However the actual winner was RWE Energy with a 50MW 8 hour duration Lithium-Ion big battery proposal. I haven't seen any details on who will provide the batteries (possibly not Tesla), but it does signal an expanding of the role for batteries into much longer duration storage.

Eight hour big battery trumps pumped hydro in NSW long duration storage tender
 
Vertical farming or not, agricultural water usage in most of the world is extremely inefficient. Israel is at the forefront in this regard. They could teach the rest of the world a thing or two.
Having been involved in an indoor hydroponic vertical farm start-up, you have to look at all the inputs, not just water. Smaller farms are water- and energy-intensive, but deliver outstanding quality cleaner and more nutritious than organic, so obtainable pricing is key. Also, geography in terms of what is available locally out of the dirt. Experience suggests IVF may not really take off until roof-top solar is more capable (reducing energy usage and cost). A key challenge is obtaining funding given economic cycles, being a new industry, and competing against more easily scalable IT technologies.
 
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From Forbes:
"California, which has created rules barring the sale of new gasoline- and diesel-powered passenger vehicles in the state by 2035, will also require all medium- and heavy-duty trucks operating there to be zero-emission, emitting no harmful exhaust, by 2045.

"The new Advanced Clean Fleets rule, approved on Friday in Sacramento by the California Air Resources Board, or CARB, phases in from 2024 and encourages commercial fleet operators to shift to nonpolluting options such as battery- and hydrogen-powered vehicles. It also bans the sale of internal combustion engine models by 2036. Trucks used in particularly heavy hauling areas, such as ports and warehouse districts, must be zero-emission by 2035.

"The state plans to spend nearly $3 billion between 2021 and 2025 for zero-emission truck incentives and fueling infrastructure as part of a $9 billion zero-emissions vehicle package agreed to by Governor Gavin Newsom and the state legislature in 2021.

The rule will allow fleets to keep operating trucks they currently have “through their useful life,” according to CARB. It estimates that 1.7 million zero-emission trucks will be operating in the state by 2050 due to the new rule."

The lead photo is of a Nikola Tre.

Article might be paywalled.
 
I see Musk has been making another round of tweets about the FED and interest rates.

Do we think he's seeing more slowdown in Tesla orders?


A loan for an EV is one of the safer loans to make as I see it.

My view is that EM hangs with a lot of VC bros that are hanging on by their fingernails as this slow recession grinds on. They are begging him (and anyone) to shorten the recession so they don’t get crushed. EM is a good friend and responding to their pain.

Tesla is efficient and productive and will weather this painful period with resolve. Not so some VC ventures IMO.
 
It’s not too much If you realize It’s just recouping the lost revenue previously collected from state-level gasoline taxation. The government doesn’t work for free…far from it. It’s wack-a-mole, stop paying taxes at the pump, up pops a new EV tax.
It should, however be based on miles driven. That wouldn't be hard to implement. Annual vehicle inspections record milage. Hook that into the tax assessor and you have a fair equivalent to the gas tax.

edit: sorry, was offline doing life this weekend and haven’t caught up. @JRP3 and others scooped me
 
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