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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Tesla had positive margins on the Model S from the beginning. Ford has negative 102% margins almost 3 years after starting production of the Mach-e. This should tell an investor everything they need to know.

This doesn't mean much without context. When the Model S came out EV was a novelty, so Tesla sold many units at high prices to the so-called 'innovators'. At this point, the novelty has worn off so it's much more difficult to sell a new EV at positive profit.
 
What does it say about a country lagging in EV sales if the catalyst needed to break the habit of ICE is the collapse of the industry, rather than obvious benefits of making the change?

It just seems odd how the EU and China seem to be making the transition scale based upon logic at both the buyer's and legislator's levels while the US needs to see drama in order to come around.

Well, I think we are on the cusp of the needed drama and that the problems contributing to the slow uptake in EVs are closer than ever to being overcome. These industry giants behind Big Auto and Big Oil have painted themselves into a corner by trying to milk the unsuspecting for all they're worth.

Visiting a friend, he was talking about the cost for repairs on his cars and other related issues and I asked if he had considered the advantages of an electric vehicle.

His answer was, "But what if I want to take a long trip?"

I replied, "How do you take a long trip now? You stop and fill up as you go." Then, I went into how 95% of his "fill-ups" will be done at home with an EV.

This opened the FUDgates with him countering about how long it takes to charge (which I explained wasn't an issue) and he went down the standard list of reasons not to go EV that folks in the US have been spoon-fed. Like, asking me how much does it cost to replace the battery? Which I explained were good for a million miles now.

Other things I mentioned included how the legacy ICE OEMs are struggling, scaling down production, piling up inventory, and encouraging employees to take buyouts in order to reduce their workforce. I also mentioned energy, the adoption S-curve, and all the usual bullet points. Until I could see his eyes begin to glaze over.

I asked if he would like me to send him some links to more info, as I explained the breadth and depth of Tesla. He said he would like to learn more. The links have been sent to whet his appetite. But, I know him well enough to not be surprised if he never mentions EVs again.

Having been involved in TMC has opened my eyes to many perspectives from people who work and live in other parts of the world. I find it frustrating and a little embarrassing when I see us lagging behind in the US.

Maybe it IS the Fluoride in the water, or the Disneyesque model of the American Dream that has been such a part of our indoctrination. Is this what leads so may in the US to wave flags, wear T-shirts with one-liners, and affix bumper stickers, and hold our heads proud that we have chosen a side, despite not having made any effort to confirm the stories we are told?

Rather than apply logic and reason to establish what are the important facts in any given instance?

Oh well, I'll keep spreading the word and can't wait until the tide begins to rise to the long overdue crest we here can see coming on the horizon.

HODL
So, I thought that was a rhetorical question to start. Then I thought the answer at most was one word. Still think those things, but it was a well thought out post and those who like to be *spoon-fed* an answer will appreciate the thoroughness.
 
I neglected the Gold Standard of retail auto sales promotions that:
-enhance, not damage, creditworthiness of borrowers;
-have value to consumers that vastly exceeds cost of Tesla;
-can be widely positioned as enhanced value, not desperation;
-is simple to do.

The product:
-two three and four year options;
-includes all service, tires, wipers, even washer fluid;
-has driving limit per year of 20,000 miles/35,000km, per unit change above those;
-include Supercharging per year to support 25% of distance limits;
-include either home charger, with installation (Mobile only if home not possible);
- if and only if, this can be structured to avoid lease accounting add options to;
- trade car at end of second year for a new one, keeping same monthly terms, or
- return car with no penalty.
-Such a product can be designed to effectively match straight lease term pricing.
-in jurisdictions permitting insurance bundling it is quite feasible to include comprehensive, liability, collision and property damage insurance as options.

This is only one example of easy to understand high value products that are designed to have significantly high value to a customer than it does cost to Tesla, while attracting more creditworthy customers. Approaches similar to this have been highly effective with diverse customer segments.

Above all Tesla should avoid any financing option that would attract lower credit quality customers.
 
Could the LR3 be using structural pack with made in Japan 4680’s? Panasonic’s new factory was supposed to be up and running soon. Could explain the $3750 tax credit, weight and range.

Structural pack is design to work with the added rigidity from front and rear castings. The 3 doesn't have those. This is not a 4680 pack.
 
This doesn't mean much without context. When the Model S came out EV was a novelty, so Tesla sold many units at high prices to the so-called 'innovators'. At this point, the novelty has worn off so it's much more difficult to sell a new EV at positive profit.
Way to dismiss every single piece of hard work done by every Tesla employee; every innovation and subsequent rapid re-innovation, every efficiency, every 80hr work week, every scrappy effort, every nail-biting moment, every pedal to the metal day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year -

The lack of profit by GM, Ford, Lucid, Faraday, Rivian, Fisker, etc has NOTHING to do with ‘novelty’.

You’re right. What you wrote doesn’t mean much without context, of which you have less than zero.
 
This aged like fine milk :)
Sure! Have fun doing your own microsecond accurate predictions 👌
Bye!
IMG_2129.png
 
What does it say about a country lagging in EV sales if the catalyst needed to break the habit of ICE is the collapse of the industry, rather than obvious benefits of making the change?

It just seems odd how the EU and China seem to be making the transition scale based upon logic at both the buyer's and legislator's levels while the US needs to see drama in order to come around.

Well, I think we are on the cusp of the needed drama and that the problems contributing to the slow uptake in EVs are closer than ever to being overcome. These industry giants behind Big Auto and Big Oil have painted themselves into a corner by trying to milk the unsuspecting for all they're worth.

Visiting a friend, he was talking about the cost for repairs on his cars and other related issues and I asked if he had considered the advantages of an electric vehicle.

His answer was, "But what if I want to take a long trip?"

I replied, "How do you take a long trip now? You stop and fill up as you go." Then, I went into how 95% of his "fill-ups" will be done at home with an EV.

This opened the FUDgates with him countering about how long it takes to charge (which I explained wasn't an issue) and he went down the standard list of reasons not to go EV that folks in the US have been spoon-fed. Like, asking me how much does it cost to replace the battery? Which I explained were good for a million miles now.

Other things I mentioned included how the legacy ICE OEMs are struggling, scaling down production, piling up inventory, and encouraging employees to take buyouts in order to reduce their workforce. I also mentioned energy, the adoption S-curve, and all the usual bullet points. Until I could see his eyes begin to glaze over.

I asked if he would like me to send him some links to more info, as I explained the breadth and depth of Tesla. He said he would like to learn more. The links have been sent to whet his appetite. But, I know him well enough to not be surprised if he never mentions EVs again.

Having been involved in TMC has opened my eyes to many perspectives from people who work and live in other parts of the world. I find it frustrating and a little embarrassing when I see us lagging behind in the US.

Maybe it IS the Fluoride in the water, or the Disneyesque model of the American Dream that has been such a part of our indoctrination. Is this what leads so may in the US to wave flags, wear T-shirts with one-liners, and affix bumper stickers, and hold our heads proud that we have chosen a side, despite not having made any effort to confirm the stories we are told?

Rather, shouldn't people apply logic and reason to establish what are the important facts in any given instance?

Oh well, I'll keep spreading the word and can't wait until the tide begins to rise to the long overdue crest we here can see coming on the horizon.

HODL
Maybe it would be worth while to actually show him how much range he can get with just ten minutes of charging at a super charger?

I've been telling people the LFPs are good for a million miles and the Li batteries are "good for around 250K". Am I wrong?
 
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Reactions: Artful Dodger
LG cells aren't lower capacity than Panasonic ones, this is close to the cell used on Shanghai 2170 packs
That isn't what the European Tesla owners report. They say that the difference is ~78kWh for an LG based pack vs. ~82kWh for a Panasonic based pack. (About 5% less energy storage. Which matches pretty close to the estimated range. (~350 down to ~325)
 
Maybe it would be worth while to actually show him how much range he can get with just ten minutes of charging at a super charger?

I've been telling people the LFPs are good for a million miles and the Li batteries are "good for around 250K". Am I wrong?
They are good for at least 500k based on my 2013 S 85.
 
Maybe it would be worth while to actually show him how much range he can get with just ten minutes of charging at a super charger?

I've been telling people the LFPs are good for a million miles and the Li batteries are "good for around 250K". Am I wrong?

I was thinking that as well, and am waiting with bated breath for the SP to appreciate to where I can buy one without a negative impact upon my retirement. 😏

Then, I'll be making people crazy by taking them for rides and providing first-hand examples. :cool:
 
I think this is the same issue for all car manufacturers at this point. People are pushing out their car purchase in anticipation of lower EV prices and lower interest rates, not to mention cars last much longer nowadays than they did a decade or two ago. Used cars are in favor right now, and then in the next 2-3 years new cars are going to make a comeback, and this is when we're going to see an explosion of EV purchases. This will be exciting to watch, but Tesla is going to have to navigate the immediate low demand period first.
Not sure if serious. Low demand period first?
 
I've been telling people the LFPs are good for a million miles and the Li batteries are "good for around 250K". Am I wrong?
Elon has said that the NCA Model 3 packs should be good for 300-500k miles before degradation is excessive. I haven't seen where Telsa has provided any guidance on the life of the LFP packs.
 
Tesla had positive margins on the Model S from the beginning. Ford has negative 102% margins almost 3 years after starting production of the Mach-e. This should tell an investor everything they need to know.

I’ve accumulated a fair amount of Ford stock over the years. I was impressed by the fact that of the Big 3, they survived without needing a bailout. Plus, a roughly 5% dividend makes it a decent place to park money, even if the price just trades in a range.

That said, when we get home Thursday from our FL road trip, I’m going to seriously consider moving some of that money from F to TSLA. I still wish Ford well as a company, but starting to have serious doubts as to their current EV game plan.