Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Here’s my take on his best points:
1). Demand IS the central issue.
2) Tesla will face a headwind in U.S. sales and a competitive disadvantage because of reduced tax credits.
3) If his data on test drives is accurate, that looks bad.

My thoughts:
1) It is true that demand is the central issue, but he erroneously used $50k and up, instead of $39k and up, and ignored Tesla’s advantages and played up the competition’s.
2) True, but hopefully addressed by our magnificent government. Yay!
3) Didn’t Tesla start penalizing test drives recently?

People say this but I don't think it's really valid. Take the P3D, currently priced at 61,500 with AP. Now, consider the BMW M3, priced at 66,500.

The P3D is faster, comparable around a track, will save you a ton in gas money (I'm saving 2k a year by getting the P3D instead of the M3), is far safer, has autopilot and potentially FSD at some point, lower lifetime maintenance costs, a cooler brand name (this one is debatable I guess), it's far greener (for those who care, and there are a lot), and includes all sorts of fun/useful bells and whistles. I don't think a $3,750 tax credit is the deciding factor on which one of these to buy.

If anything it's a lack of understanding amongst the buying public.

But the article is not that bad: Insiders describe a world of chaos and waste at Panasonic's massive battery-making operation for Tesla

she describes hurdles like many production companies have. The good thing is that article brings out that there is double quality check for cells, which is very good news.

And problems she describes are quickly solvable, by additional training and explaining to personnel and probably some extra supervision.

Very few people read articles, they see the clickbait headline and form their opinion.

 

[M3Rider]

Re: FSD, I don't see why people would be happy to pay higher prices after 5/1.
I assume FSD will not be ready, just closer, so you can't count on it. That removes any use cases for (partially) disabled people, removes any taxi uses (buy car for profit) and only leaves "use FSD for fun". You don't get a ton of value from that, just some and can perfectly drive by yourself instead.

Further, for existing car owners who may consider sharing their car on TN, I think it's a less attractive option if you have a high trim car like P or bunch of options- wheels, color, interior, AWD. Do you really want people to mess up your expensive car(in the future, when FSD is here)?

TN cars should be SR+ or RWD LRs(which they are discontinuing). RWD black LRs is the perfect fit for the TN.

Anyway, the way I'm seeing it is no immediate huge demand for FSD right after the event.
When it's here and approved by regulators and insurance concerns are worked out, then it's a different matter. SP, on the other hand, could be slowly rising if April 22 shows they are close.

Post 22 headlines from WSJ:
"Can Tesla really deliver on self driving? NO WAY say sources familiar with the matter."

 

[SOULPEDL]

@SOULPEDL, You want to know what I really wanted to say?

- Jay Van Sciver in that Real Vision interview is an idiot. Most of the things he said is stupid. His "short at $270, price target $50 within 12 months" conclusion is also stupid.

I respect Zhelko Dimic, so I would like to know which part makes him think this Real Vision video has good argument. I'm ready to explain my points. That's all.

Oops, my bad. I though you were talking about the MIT interview. Sorry.

 

[Big Earl]

You ordered a Model Y with a two years wait?

If more people like you exist that would bode well for Tesla. Wonder if they would comment on that on the ER...

My neighbor and one of his coworkers did the same thing after the neighbor went for a ride in my Model 3 at our neighborhood block party (last fall!). After they ordered, I took them both for a test drive to whet their whistles. Coming from Toyota Priuses, both of them were absolutely blown away by the power, smoothness and silence of the Tesla. The future is now.

 

[M3Rider]

You ordered a Model Y with a two years wait?

If more people like you exist that would bode well for Tesla. Wonder if they would comment on that on the ER...

What's <2 years after you waited 2.5 or 3 for the Model 3? Peanuts.
I have one on order too. Don't need two 3s. One 3 and one Y will be better for utility purposes.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

How much of a competitive advantage is this for Tesla in Europe? Sounds huge:

“To take this a step further, the Model 3 and other Teslas will be the only models capable of charging with all three DC fast-charging standards found in Europe—CCS (Combo), CHAdeMO, and Superchargers.”
From quite a while back (any newer/batter info?)
Tesla will soon be compatible with all DC fast charging—in Europe

S/X already have ChaDeMo adapter, in addition to Supercharging. Tesla is apparently working on a Type 2 CCS adapter for existing S/X fleet (would not be surprised to see Type 2 region S/X gain a Type 2 CCS port like Model 3 eventually) to allow them to use Type 2 CCS, which would then let S/X use all three networks.

Model 3 comes with Type 2 CCS port, so obviously works on Type 2 CCS chargers. Will not work on older Modified Type 2 Superchargers, only on updated superchargers with Type 2 CCS cabling. There is thus far no indication they plan to add ChaDeMo support for Model 3 (you can try using the adapter but it won't work, no software support on the vehicle and/or adapter). An argument could be made that the Model 3 only supports one DC fast charging standard, and Supercharging is only available because they're adding Type 2 CCS ports to supercharger locations to support the Model 3 (though, currently, only Model 3s can use them, not any other Type 2 CCS vehicles).

I imagine once the Type 2 CCS to Tesla Modified Type 2 adapter for S/X exists, they will convert much more (perhaps all) of the pedestals to just Type 2 CCS connectors at Supercharger stations in Type 2 regions (versus the current practice of converting just one or a few to dual Type 2 CCS and Tesla modified Type 2).

 

[Tslynk67]

And it was going so well... Come on 30 minutes to get back on that line...!!!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Re: FSD, I don't see why people would be happy to pay higher prices after 5/1.
I assume FSD will not be ready, just closer, so you can't count on it. That removes any use cases for (partially) disabled people, removes any taxi uses (buy car for profit) and only leaves "use FSD for fun". You don't get a ton of value from that, just some and can perfectly drive by yourself instead.

Further, for existing car owners who may consider sharing their car on TN, I think it's a less attractive option if you have a high trim car like P or bunch of options- wheels, color, interior, AWD. Do you really want people to mess up your expensive car(in the future, when FSD is here)?

TN cars should be SR+ or RWD LRs(which they are discontinuing). RWD black LRs is the perfect fit for the TN.

Anyway, the way I'm seeing it is no immediate huge demand for FSD right after the event.
When it's here and approved by regulators and insurance concerns are worked out, then it's a different matter. SP, on the other hand, could be slowly rising if April 22 shows they are close.

Except if people are shown a clearer vision, and the future value is understood, its like a stock and folks will continue to buy IMO. It's like buying the 10th home in a development knowing others before got better value and future value will increase once complete. They still buy it, and maybe stronger if the end price was $50k.

 

[kbM3]

People say this but I don't think it's really valid. Take the P3D, currently priced at 61,500 with AP. Now, consider the BMW M3, priced at 66,500.

The P3D is faster, comparable around a track, will save you a ton in gas money (I'm saving 2k a year by getting the P3D instead of the M3), is far safer, has autopilot and potentially FSD at some point, lower lifetime maintenance costs, a cooler brand name (this one is debatable I guess), it's far greener (for those who care, and there are a lot), and includes all sorts of fun/useful bells and whistles. I don't think a $3,750 tax credit is the deciding factor on which one of these to buy.

If anything it's a lack of understanding amongst the buying public.


Very few people read articles, they see the clickbait headline and form their opinion.

P3D being better is irrelevant to his point because neither it nor the BMW M3 sell in enough quantity to make a meaningful difference.

 

[Curt Renz]

And it was going so well... Come on 30 minutes to get back on that line...!!!

The TSLA high of the day occurred one minute before my Thinkorswim news feed reported that Pedro Pedilla resigned in March as director of manufacturing operations for the Model 3.

 

[Lessmog]

people won't just toss their vehicles until they brake, even if they want to full robo taxi.

Yah, cos yano, the day my car brakes is the day I toss it. (Cant spel aither)

 

[EVNow]

And it was going so well... Come on 30 minutes to get back on that line...!!!

View attachment 397466

Nasdaq had a huge dip from 8010 to 7980. Recovered to 7990 now.

TSLA actually did well at that time not to go down a lot.

 

[Nocturnal]

Yah, cos yano, the day my car brakes is the day I toss it. (Cant spel aither)

Ugh, I hate when I do that.

 

[EVNow]

The TSLA high of the day occurred one minute before my Thinkorswim news feed reported that Pedro Pedilla resigned in March as director of manufacturing operations for the Model 3.

Not sure how many directors Tesla has - but companies I've worked in have a few thousand.

ps : Anyone knows how to query Linked in to get such a list or count ?

 

[anthonyj]

And it was going so well... Come on 30 minutes to get back on that line...!!!

View attachment 397466

Typical Tesla. 80% of the time it hits $275, $285, $295, it retraces $5 same day or early next day. It’s in the Tesla daytrading rulebook

 

[Tslynk67]

The TSLA high of the day occurred one minute before my Thinkorswim news feed reported that Pedro Pedilla resigned in March as director of manufacturing operations for the Model 3.

Aha, that explains the sudden fade... Plus the Nasdaq fell off a little cliff there too...

 

[printf42]

OT

After being a day 1 reservation holder for both the X and 3, and seeing what Tesla had done with pricing and options once they released them, I decided not to reserve the Y. I feel there are others who may have done the same.

That’s backwards, Tesla did drastic and seemingly rushed price changes to Model 3 to make it reach the price target and stabilize before they reveal the Model Y target price, I don’t see them changing Model Y price by much when it’s out, because they share 75% parts with Model 3 and should be already on target price levels.

Then, by the time Model Y rolls out, there’s high probability they had made significant progress on FSD to justify hiking FSD price substantially higher(probably to the level of costs much more than the car itself), while still practically everyone would order FSD anyways.

So I think it’s actually a good idea to lock-in a Model Y order if you have plan to get one eventually. It’s refundable anyway.

 

[Nocturnal]

Nice FUD courtesy of CNBC. From how it reads they tried to be neutral, but couldn't help themselves.

Can you save money and the planet by owning a Tesla or another electric car?

A big issue with owning an electric vehicle is charging. As models have advanced, the miles of range — or how far you can drive before you recharge it — has extended. Now, consumers can expect new models to last for 200 miles or more, according to Eric Ibara, director of residual values at Kelley Blue Book.
Of course let's not talk about the 300 mile plus cars that are common now.

"A nightmare scenario is you're stuck in traffic on the freeway and your battery dies and you need to call a tow truck," Ibara said.
Tesla is addressing that issue by putting charging stations across the country. But those stations are only compatible with their cars.
Yeah, kinda like running out of gas. So that risk is different why?

"It's gotten very expensive to publicly charge an electric vehicle," said Sam Jaffe, managing director at Cairn ERA. "Tesla used to give it away for free; they don't with the Model 3. And with other networks, you're paying a lot."
lol wut? Let's ignore that even worst case it's 2-3x cheaper than gas.

"There's no question that electric vehicles are not environmentally neutral," said Jack Gillis, executive director of the Consumer Federation of America and author of "The Car Book."
While less emissions are produced by the cars themselves while driving on the streets, carbon dioxide is still being emitted by power plants to charge the electric cars, Gillis said.

Barely a nod to the fact that it's still a big net positive.

Resale value
One catch that comes with buying an electric vehicle is that it can be difficult to sell.
That is particularly because the tax credits are only available to the first owners.
And because the technology is evolving quickly, electric vehicle owners may be eager to upgrade.
A first-generation Nissan Leaf, which was introduced in 2010, had a range of about 85 miles, according to Ron Montoya, senior consumer advice editor at Edmunds, while today's model has about two times as much. Those older models are available on the used car market, he said.
Yes, pick the worst possible example, gen 1 leaf.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Even if Tesla can work miracles, they have to get legal approval, that process will not happen overnight.

There are 195 countries in the world. Odds are that one of them will be FSD legal well before the USA. At that early point, the cars appreciate by a factor of 5. Subtract shipping cost to said country. That will be their value. Many will elect to hold, figuring that once “Robotistan” proves the concept, the local roads authority will eventually follow suit.

 

[Lessmog]

I hope the Apr 22 event will explain this question:

Say I buy a Model 3 and elect to "put it in the Network" so that it can make money as a ride-sharing vehicle.

Question: what happens if/when the FSD makes the 1-in-a-million mistake and does something that causes injury or property damage or worse? Who is responsible? Tesla? Me? The passengers? Say it is a really obvious case: the logs show the driverless car drove, at full speed, straight into an 18-wheeler crossing the road, the car simply didn't see the side of the trailer, and drove under it, passenger dies, etc.

Now scale it up to say 5-10 freak 1-in-a-million (heck, 1-in-a-billion) edge-cases a year, resulting in fatalities or serious injury. Is Tesla going to own this risk? Will individuals putting their car in the Network own the risk? Will Tesla indemnify such owners?

Inquiring minds, etc.

If it would be a repeat of the tragic Florida accident a few years back, where the (very seasoned) driver seems to have been preoccupied and not ready to intervene as a tractor-trailer crossed his path, DOT carries the can for not mandating the simple remedy of don't-drive-under-bars that would have shown up on even the primitive radar at the time. This has been mandatory in Europe for ages and eons already and probably saved uncounted cyclists and motorists. Government has no excuse here, really. Too bad it is so hard to sue it successfully.

I see no ready solution, sorry.