Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Anyone claiming to sell FSD - will have to own the risk. They will probably take out insurance themselves too.

Any such network would have to include insurance.

BTW, I'm not sure why we are talking about FSD and networks. We are far from that. I hope that is not the expectation for 22nd. Insurance is least of the issues.

Having talked to non-techie folks, I've to say the general population vastly underestimates the difficulty involved and time to get their (we all know EM is optimistic). I hope the "investors" on 22nd will compare what Tesla shows to waymo rather than real FSD.

My hope is that we see some real progress. Best case is a limited FSD demo with maybe some random barriers, lights etc. to show it's actually thinking on the fly.

 

[EVNow]

His calm, soothing voice is very convincing yet one remark at 12:00 raised some alarm bells. Is it true that Tesla recently changed their definition of vehicles in transit? Guy is claiming "in-transit" now includes vehicles upon order. This is a drastic departure from the 10k definition that vehicles in transit are completed cars and housed in finished good inventory. So by his statement, he is disingenuously insinuating that in transit numbers are artificially inflated because of the new definition (and thereby strengthening his argument about the diminishing demand)?

Can anyone please confirm this change?

Hmmm … if he is claiming something - he needs to give the proof.

 

[Nocturnal]

Suspect it will be a country with above average wealth. Also small enough to audit every road, line marking and sign. Not an arduous job. The cars themselves will do it, identifying “grey spots” (places where ambiguity exists). A wealthy small country will be able to quickly rectify these problem spots, a useful safety exercise regardless.

tldr. Not China.

The Netherlands or Switzerland might make sense. Lots of Teslas, small country, smart/savvy populace.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

But the article is not that bad: Insiders describe a world of chaos and waste at Panasonic's massive battery-making operation for Tesla

she describes hurdles like many production companies have. The good thing is that article brings out that there is double quality check for cells, which is very good news.

And problems she describes are quickly solvable, by additional training and explaining to personnel and probably some extra supervision.

I’ve seen her outright lie in articles before. Take anything said with a huge grain of salt.

 

[TradingInvest]

Here's two points he made. 1)When you produce more than you sell plus more than you have orders for that's a demand problem. 2)When your sales &customer service is bad that devalues the brand.
View attachment 397460

I talked to a lot of Tesla owners, they are all SUPER HAPPY about their Tesla cars. Also many strangers ask me about my car. These are indications for future demand.

My personal service experience (tire rotation) has been very good, 30 seconds scheduling on phone, job was done quickly. I hope Tesla assign someone to full time analyze the bad sales/services cases, figure out what went wrong, and what's the best solutions.

 

[KSilver2000]

Anyone claiming to sell FSD - will have to own the risk.

Having talked to non-techie folks, I've to say the general population vastly underestimates the difficulty involved and time to get their (we all know EM is optimistic). I hope the "investors" on 22nd will compare what Tesla shows to waymo rather than real FSD.

Is selling EAP and FSD different? As it stands with EAP, the burden is still on the owner.

Having talked to both techie and non-techie people (those who don’t currently own a Tesla) about Tesla, and autopilot in general, I would say Tesla—as a result of being the current leader in EV—has created an incorrect perception of what is autopilot. Most people have not even heard of Waymo. For the general folk, it seems they just view it as simply black or white. Either there is self-driving or not. I don’t think I’ve had a discussion with anyone who knew of the different levels of autonomy. Heck, I would wager most even on this forum couldn’t recall the different stages of autonomy.

 

[Curt Renz]

Sooo, question for you experts.
If you had $45000 to spend, which option would you chose:

1) Buy a Model 3 (with FSD) and use it as part of the Tesla Network to generate money for the next 5 years.
or
2) Buy TSLA stock and sell in 5 years.

I would put half in ARKK and use the other half as a down payment on the 3. But that us just me and not 'real advice'. Cathie wood and her team seem to know when to buy/sell TSLA much better than I.

I've owned ARKQ stock for many months, just broke even today. So, whats the diff ARKQ vs ARKK? And dont say in bancrupcy, already heard that once.

You must have gotten in when the overall market began its fourth quarter crash. Congratulations on the recovery.

I own shares in ARKK which is ARK's largest and most diverse fund. It includes a number of stocks that are in ARKG which is devoted to genomic companies. ARKQ leaves those out.

TSLA is currently the #1 holding in ARKK and #2 in ARKQ.

Here are the details from ARK: ARK Innovation ETFs

 

[mongo]

I’ve seen her outright lie in articles before. Take anything said with a huge grain of salt.

And be very wrong, unless Pansonic is making some sort of anti-matter cells...

The inside of the battery is made of up of a sheet of a positively charged electron (anode) and a sheet of a negatively charged electron (cathode), and there is a thin material separating the two. All of that rolled together makes the inside of a battery cell.

 

[EVNow]

My hope is that we see some real progress. Best case is a limited FSD demo with
maybe some random barriers, lights etc. to show it's actually thinking on the fly.

My hope is they show they can do what Waymo does. Because the current narrative is that Tesla is way behind Waymo.

Is selling EAP and FSD different? As it stands with EAP, the burden is still on the owner.

Having talked to both techie and non-techie people (those who don’t currently own a Tesla) about Tesla, and autopilot in general, I would say Tesla—as a result of being the current leader in EV—has created an incorrect perception of what is autopilot. Most people have not even heard of Waymo. For the general folk, it seems they just view it as simply black or white. Either there is self-driving or not. I don’t think I’ve had a discussion with anyone who knew of the different levels of autonomy. Heck, I would wager most even on this forum couldn’t recall the different stages of autonomy.

Yes, for a lot of folk it is that way.

But I hope the non-techie media & investors compare Tesla to Waymo and others favorably.

 

[lklundin]

OT fun.
https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/04/16/health/ocean-plastic-study-scn/index.html


Also, Microplastic Found Even In The Air In France's Pyrenees Mountains

We are eating and breathing plastic, people. And plastic-borne emissions will soon match those coming from cars. Seems like a nice area for Elon Musk to fix.

But we sure had a good time while it was made,

 

[lklundin]

The Netherlands or Switzerland might make sense. Lots of Teslas, small country, smart/savvy populace.

As one of the last, Germany will be dragging its feet with FSD regulation - in a final, vain attempt at hampering Tesla's unstoppable growth...

 

[Krugerrand]

You ordered a Model Y with a two years wait?

If more people like you exist that would bode well for Tesla. Wonder if they would comment on that on the ER...

Absolutely! Without hesitation. In fact, I couldn’t get it ordered fast enough. The website wouldn’t take my credit card payment, even after 32 attempts. I had to wait until the following day to get my order through when traffic subsided. It was the vehicle I’d been waiting for all along to replace my van.

I also plan to order a pick up.

Yes, I’m easy and I’m okay with it.

 

[Bladerskb]

Looks like they are gonna show a pre-recorded demo video of no driver on the 22nd.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Absolutely! Without hesitation. In fact, I couldn’t get it ordered fast enough. The website wouldn’t take my credit card payment, even after 32 attempts. I had to wait until the following day to get my order through when traffic subsided. It was the vehicle I’d been waiting for all along to replace my van.

I also plan to order a pick up.

Yes, I’m easy and I’m okay with it.

Ditto, though I got mine ordered immediately.

You get 7 seats or just the 5?

 

[SpudLime]

At my last place of employment, I averaged 8K emails a day, seven days a week, but sometimes up to 24K. I don't understand where the stress comes from?

The number of cat fact notifications can be quite overwhelming eh?

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

More than 1000 Teslas have now been delivered in Q2 in Norway + Netherlands + Spain. Based on Q1 delivery patterns, this suggests 2-2.5k deliveries in Europe so far this quarter.

Obviously deliveries aren’t completely smoothed & will still be weighted toward the end of the quarter, but Tesla has done a good job of keeping the delivery pipeline filled at the beginning of the quarter. Hopefully, the first shipments can arrive before all their European inventory.

 

[Krugerrand]

Ditto, though I got mine ordered immediately.

You get 7 seats or just the 5?

5. I don’t need a people hauler. I need the cargo space.

 

[Lessmog]

S/X already have ChaDeMo adapter, in addition to Supercharging. Tesla is apparently working on a Type 2 CCS adapter for existing S/X fleet (would not be surprised to see Type 2 region S/X gain a Type 2 CCS port like Model 3 eventually) to allow them to use Type 2 CCS, which would then let S/X use all three networks.

Model 3 comes with Type 2 CCS port, so obviously works on Type 2 CCS chargers. Will not work on older Modified Type 2 Superchargers, only on updated superchargers with Type 2 CCS cabling. There is thus far no indication they plan to add ChaDeMo support for Model 3 (you can try using the adapter but it won't work, no software support on the vehicle and/or adapter). An argument could be made that the Model 3 only supports one DC fast charging standard, and Supercharging is only available because they're adding Type 2 CCS ports to supercharger locations to support the Model 3 (though, currently, only Model 3s can use them, not any other Type 2 CCS vehicles).

I imagine once the Type 2 CCS to Tesla Modified Type 2 adapter for S/X exists, they will convert much more (perhaps all) of the pedestals to just Type 2 CCS connectors at Supercharger stations in Type 2 regions (versus the current practice of converting just one or a few to dual Type 2 CCS and Tesla modified Type 2).

Seems to be a somewhat founded whisper that a CCS adapter for S/X is indeed in the works:
CCS adaptern - Tesla Club Sweden
No internal electronics, just galvanic connections, apparently, unlike the Chademo. ETA not yet disclosed. From TCS blog last week.

 

[izemize]

Is it true that Tesla recently changed their definition of vehicles in transit? Guy is claiming "in-transit" now includes vehicles upon order. [...]
Can anyone please confirm this change?

They added the following sentence to the latest deliveries report: "We count a produced but undelivered vehicle to be in transit if the related customer has placed an order or paid the full purchase price for such vehicle."

They also didn't state when in-transit cars would be delivered. Previously Tesla always said that "in-transit" cars would be delivered in the beginning of the next quarter. Now this part is missing.

Bears say that these changes are important because this way Tesla can count rejected, canceled orders as "in-transit". Also in certain cases Tesla might count excess inventory vehicles as "in-transit". Let's say that there is an excess inventory red LR M3 sitting in a Norwegian parking lot. If there is an order for this model / trim in the US they can count it as in-transit. Even if there is minimal chance that Tesla will ship the car back to the US to sell it and there is no current buyer for this trim in Norway.

You can decide yourself how sensible his argument. Personally I don't know, sounds like splitting hairs. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

2018 Q4 delivery report: https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/...le-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000
2019 Q1 delivery report: https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q1-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Speaking of Q2 deliveries, can anyone point me to the best info on shipping this quarter? Last I heard, there was a ship docked at Pier 80.

Also, does anyone have info on deliveries in China this quarter. An equal number of ships were sent in Q1, but deliveries were lower, so I hope they have more inventory to deliver this quarter. It’s possible their ships carried fewer cars, but one would hope not.