Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

If it would be a repeat of the tragic Florida accident a few years back, where the (very seasoned) driver seems to have been preoccupied and not ready to intervene as a tractor-trailer crossed his path, DOT carries the can for not mandating the simple remedy of don't-drive-under-bars that would have shown up on even the primitive radar at the time. This has been mandatory in Europe for ages and eons already and probably saved uncounted cyclists and motorists. Government has no excuse here, really. Too bad it is so hard to sue it successfully.

I see no ready solution, sorry.

You would think it would be easy to sue trucking companies for not installing simple yet proven effective safety equipment.

 

[EVNow]

TSLA ends at 273.36 (up 2.62%) vs Nasdaq 0.3%. Nasdaq recovered to just above 8000 level.

 

[Fred42]

Was extended: Tender Offer Extension for Acquisition of Maxwell Technologies, Inc. | Tesla, Inc.

Is it correct that we don't know whether Tesla and Maxwell have a contract that enables Tesla to move forward with the technology, and therefore it's unclear how much the acquisition matters?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Why wouldn't commercial companies buy thousands of FSD vehicles and rent them out on the Tesla Network?

That would cause ride share prices to crater and the value of renting out to drop. Once you cut out human drivers, you can ruthlessly lower prices. That's a benefit to Tesla in the sales price of their car and the FSD package, but I don't see how that translates to the average joe shmoe who has a Tesla where prices appreciate. The average person will have to deal with special insurance, liability, wear and tear, etc. The value proposition appears to decrease as the number of vehicles involved scales up.

Agreed, supply and demand thing. Future travel will be cheaper IMO. But expect a long drawn out spike in value before a pullback from about $800 SP. But other networks have to switch to cameras from Lidar to compete. They are screwed for years until they do.

 

[M3Rider]

OT fun.
https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/04/16/health/ocean-plastic-study-scn/index.html

study, published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change, found that if the trend continues, the making of plastics will comprise 15% of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050;
by comparison, all of the world's forms of transportation now account for 15% of emissions.

Also, Microplastic Found Even In The Air In France's Pyrenees Mountains

very few studies of wind-borne microplastic have ever been done. This one found that the air over these mountains has about as much floating plastic pollution as the air over Paris or Dongguan, a large industrial city in China.

We are eating and breathing plastic, people. And plastic-borne emissions will soon match those coming from cars. Seems like a nice area for Elon Musk to fix.

 

[printf42]

There are 195 countries in the world. Odds are that one of them will be FSD legal well before the USA. At that early point, the cars appreciate by a factor of 5. Subtract shipping cost to said country. That will be their value. Many will elect to hold, figuring that once “Robotistan” proves the concept, the local roads authority will eventually follow suit.

I am betting that first country would be China. That’s why they wanted GF3 ASAP.

 

[ZachF]

Typical Tesla. 80% of the time it hits $275, $285, $295, it retraces $5 same day or early next day. It’s in the Tesla daytrading rulebook

 

[SOULPEDL]

I would put half in ARKK and use the other half as a down payment on the 3. But that us just me and not 'real advice'. Cathie wood and her team seem to know when to buy/sell TSLA much better than I.

I've owned ARKQ stock for many months, just broke even today. So, whats the diff ARKQ vs ARKK? And dont say in bancrupcy, already heard that once.

 

[jerry33]

Here’s my take on his best points:
2) Tesla will face a headwind in U.S. sales and a competitive disadvantage because of reduced tax credits.

Only on the Leaf. GM used up their credits too April 1. No one else has a competing car (lots of "we will have next year or two" though).

 

[KSilver2000]

Tesla did drastic and seemingly rushed price changes to Model 3 to make it reach the price target and stabilize before they reveal the Model Y target price

And what evidence do you have to conclude that?

As a shareholder, if you made a Y reservation, thank you. Just not for me as an owner.

 

[anthonyj]

This market is silly

 

[TradingInvest]

Here’s my take on his best points:
1). Demand IS the central issue.
2) Tesla will face a headwind in U.S. sales and a competitive disadvantage because of reduced tax credits.
3) If his data on test drives is accurate, that looks bad.

My thoughts:
1) It is true that demand is the central issue, but he erroneously used $50k and up, instead of $39k and up, and ignored Tesla’s advantages and played up the competition’s.
2) True, but hopefully addressed by our magnificent government. Yay!
3) Didn’t Tesla start penalizing test drives recently?

That guy brought up at least 15 points. He views things in a static way. I don't agree with him.

1) I think demand is not the central issue. Intrinsic value is. If Tesla gets zero demand for Q2, but IF the market thinks Tesla is leading FSD and Tesla Network in coming next year, the stock could still go up a lot. Not saying FSD coming, just saying looking at quarterly demand without looking at bigger picture is not prudent. A while ago I posted Q1 and Q2 demand probably would be weak. But that doesn't mean Tesla will go down without hope. There are many things Tesla can do to increase demand. For example, they can lease Model 3 at a good term to five star Uber/Lyft drivers. The Uber driver can save on gasoline and earn money on referrals.

When we look at demand, we should look at details, not just "people are buying EVs because of tax incentives, the incentives are going away, so demand will be weak."

To really understand the intrinsic demand, we should look at each region individually, how compelling are Tesla cars relative to the competitors (both ICE and BEV competitors)? Are the public in that region well informed? Why are they buying competing products?

US tax incentives stepping down has nothing to do with EU and China demand. EU and China have higher gasoline price, that may play a role when people choose between EV and ICE cars. The G3 in Shanghai may help to reduce Tesla cars' cost by $25k (tariff, shipping, production cost, parts cost, local incentive). Also, Tesla mainly promote cars through word of mouse. The situation maybe very different when there are 1 million owners instead of 500k. The demand can change when lowest version drops from $50k to 40k. Leasing can make a difference.

The guy talked about EV competitors will have $7.5k incentive while Tesla is loosing it, so Tesla is in big trouble. On the surface his view is totally valid. But is it? Even if e-tron drops price by $30k, I would still choose Model 3 over e-tron/I-pace, because the Model 3 is still a better deal after I checked everything closely. On top of that, you really think US will continue to subsidize foreign EVs but not support their own companies like Tesla and GM? Most likely they will either give incentives to all or cancel it all together. Again, I think that person looks at things with a static view.

Not arguing Tesla's demand is weak or strong, if I have to bet I guess it's not strong. I am saying Tesla cars are very compelling if buyers are well informed. Assuming Tesla can do nothing to improve demand is narrow minded.

 

[VValleyEV]

S/X already have ChaDeMo adapter, in addition to Supercharging. Tesla is apparently working on a Type 2 CCS adapter for existing S/X fleet (would not be surprised to see Type 2 region S/X gain a Type 2 CCS port like Model 3 eventually) to allow them to use Type 2 CCS, which would then let S/X use all three networks.

Model 3 comes with Type 2 CCS port, so obviously works on Type 2 CCS chargers. Will not work on older Modified Type 2 Superchargers, only on updated superchargers with Type 2 CCS cabling. There is thus far no indication they plan to add ChaDeMo support for Model 3 (you can try using the adapter but it won't work, no software support on the vehicle and/or adapter). An argument could be made that the Model 3 only supports one DC fast charging standard, and Supercharging is only available because they're adding Type 2 CCS ports to supercharger locations to support the Model 3 (though, currently, only Model 3s can use them, not any other Type 2 CCS vehicles).

I imagine once the Type 2 CCS to Tesla Modified Type 2 adapter for S/X exists, they will convert much more (perhaps all) of the pedestals to just Type 2 CCS connectors at Supercharger stations in Type 2 regions (versus the current practice of converting just one or a few to dual Type 2 CCS and Tesla modified Type 2).

I get the technical stuff.

Question remains, how much is this a competitive advantage for Tesla in Europe?

Tesla cars can charge on all the DC charging networks including their own Superchargers. E-tron, I3, i-Pace, etc etc cannot. Does anyone in Europe notice this and choose Tesla because of it?

 

[EVNow]

Now scale it up to say 5-10 freak 1-in-a-million (heck, 1-in-a-billion) edge-cases a year, resulting in fatalities or serious injury. Is Tesla going to own this risk? Will individuals putting their car in the Network own the risk? Will Tesla indemnify such owners?

Anyone claiming to sell FSD - will have to own the risk. They will probably take out insurance themselves too.

Any such network would have to include insurance.

BTW, I'm not sure why we are talking about FSD and networks. We are far from that. I hope that is not the expectation for 22nd. Insurance is least of the issues.

Having talked to non-techie folks, I've to say the general population vastly underestimates the difficulty involved and time to get their (we all know EM is optimistic). I hope the "investors" on 22nd will compare what Tesla shows to waymo rather than real FSD.

 

[oneday]

OT

OT fun.
We are eating and breathing plastic, people. And plastic-borne emissions will soon match those coming from cars. Seems like a nice area for Elon Musk to fix.

After SpaceX Unfortunately lost the center core of the FH due to high seas. Someone on twitter said, Elon Musk needs to invent something to “calm the seas”.

 

[Compton]

I get the technical stuff.

Question remains, how much is this a competitive advantage for Tesla in Europe?

Tesla cars can charge on all the DC charging networks including their own Superchargers. E-tron, I3, i-Pace, etc etc cannot. Does anyone in Europe notice this and choose Tesla because of it?

Charging is one of the things people worry the most about EVs. I would hazard a guess that a fairly large proportion of EV buyers spend some time learning about charging options. So yes, having the best charging network and best compatibility with other networks does play a role. How big is anyone's guess.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I am betting that first country would be China. That’s why they wanted GF3 ASAP.

Suspect it will be a country with above average wealth. Also small enough to audit every road, line marking and sign. Not an arduous job. The cars themselves will do it, identifying “grey spots” (places where ambiguity exists). A wealthy small country will be able to quickly rectify these problem spots, a useful safety exercise regardless.

tldr. Not China.

 

[EVNow]

OT
After SpaceX Unfortunately lost the center core of the FH due to high seas. Someone on twitter said, Elon Musk needs to invent something to “calm the seas”.

Just slightly alter the moon's trajectory so that it goes away

 

[sunhelm]

not sure if it was posted. but Real Vision have another Tesla Short episode. Basically the guy is betting that demand is gone. And he says reducing sales team is a problem for demand. He will reverse his mind if he will see sustainable demand. Seems reasonable guy though.

His calm, soothing voice is very convincing yet one remark at 12:00 raised some alarm bells. Is it true that Tesla recently changed their definition of vehicles in transit? Guy is claiming "in-transit" now includes vehicles upon order. This is a drastic departure from the 10k definition that vehicles in transit are completed cars and housed in finished good inventory. So by his statement, he is disingenuously insinuating that in transit numbers are artificially inflated because of the new definition (and thereby strengthening his argument about the diminishing demand)?

Can anyone please confirm this change?

 

[EVNow]

Suspect it will be a country with above average wealth. Also small enough to audit every road, line marking and sign. Not an arduous job. The cars themselves will do it, identifying “grey spots” (places where ambiguity exists). A wealthy small country will be able to quickly rectify these problem spots, a useful safety exercise regardless.

tldr. Not China.

Liechtenstein or Vatican