Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Big Time]

Big Times in London and is patiently waiting the US open

 

[Atomsla]

Big Times in London and is patiently waiting the US open

US market is closed today, so I hope you brought enough patience!

 

[jerry33]

Several of these "hurdles" are weird to me, as a Texan.

Perhaps in EU (and in older areas of North America, to be fair) you are looking at heat pumps to replace traditional heat sources for heating water for use in radiators, in floor heating, and such, rather than heating the air that flows through the central AC system.

For those of us with a central AC system, with ducting all over the place, we already have our heating and cooling systems intermixed, with regular AC systems having an evaporator either just before or after whatever the heat source is (i.e. electric resistive, natural gas). So switching to a heat pump involves replacing the AC system, and if you don't replace the furnace/blower unit, you also slave the old furnace to the heat pump for "emergency heat".

Many already have heat pump systems for heat, from when their house was built (or when they last replaced the entire heating/cooling system) in which there is likely still a resistive heat element as "emergency" heat (for faster warm up and/or if the outside temp drops below operating conditions for the heat pump), and the evaporator and condensor basically switch roles as the AC system runs in "reverse" to pump heat from the outside in, rather than outside in. AC systems are, after all, heat pumps - just traditionally one directional. "Heat pumps" are generally bidirectional heat pumps (or at least, one directional, but switchable, depending on how you want to define it).

So complaints about noise (we already have noisy outside compressors for cooling), space (it takes up the same space, more or less), piping (might sometimes require a change but usually can get away with the same piping, and even then most such houses aren't that hard to change out the refridgerant piping for), vibrations (our outside compressors/condensor/fan units are usually installed on concrete pads, sometimes with extra padding between the pad and the unit, which is typically separate from the house slab or other foundation support), and power draw (we already have high power connections for the AC, we're just running in reverse, so it's the same power more or less), sound weird from my perspective.

However, if you're in an area that never uses central AC, with at most quieter mini-splits or possibly nothing, and primarily needs heating, then that's certainly some potential for disruption I suppose, if you can solve the pain points for buildings that never had central AC. I'm not sure that Tesla has anything other than a willingness to engineer new solutions as an advantage, though, since they're not really inventing anything new, just packaging it smarter, with regards to heat pumps.

Other than as yet another premium expensive thing they can sell to higher end homeowners (i.e. like power wall and solar roof), I don't see much of a market for a Tesla branded central air system in competition with traditional central AC.

Perhaps they might be able to come up with a new way of doing things as a replacement for non-central air systems that use heated water or such to transport heat, but the way everything would scale up, to support a house sized load, and the lack of alternative heat sources to scavenge (even if you could scavenge heat from the stove or whatever, that's not useful to the stove's operation, and if the purpose is heating, then it's already helping heat it's immediate vicinity).

I suspect for that scenario, at best, they might provide a premium outdoor unit that is quieter than the competition, and possibly a bit smaller or at least packaged differently (i.e. a tall rectangle rather than a large cube), to address the concerns you listed as being problems for getting one in your locality. Assuming they intended to re-use their existing designs, by going from AC to HVDC to drive ~400V heat pumps (but upscaled), you'd be adding extra inefficiencies in the conversion from AC to DC, so the HVDC compressor would need to be more efficient than a traditional one run from AC. Perhaps the efficiency might be gained as the average over time, by being able to run at different speeds.

But I do think you've raised an interesting point of discussion - we don't all think of the same thing when we think of heat pumps and heating (or cooling) a building. Some of us expect central air, and a heat pump is just a fancy AC unit that can run backwards, and other than the cost to install the unit there's no material difference between them. Others, such as yourself, clearly have a different expectation, whether due to being a different climate, different local regulations, or so on. So there may be different markets better suited to different solutions, and thus a potential Tesla system (or systems, to address different markets), will have different competitive advantages (or lack there of) depending on what they're competing against, and trying to achieve.

When we discuss these things, we probably need to be clear as to what type of system we're envisioning, or half of us are going to think the other half are nuts and vice versa.

Correct. This is my experience too. Our heat pump is no louder than the A/C. And there's basically zero difference in the installation. It's just a drop in replacement.

 

[NicoV]

Perhaps in EU (and in older areas of North America, to be fair) you are looking at heat pumps to replace traditional heat sources for heating water for use in radiators, in floor heating, and such, rather than heating the air that flows through the central AC system.

In most of the EU there is no airco in private homes typically. It’s not needed because our summers are not that hot. In my experience, airco is only commonly available in the south of France and more southern regions.
Now that is changing due to climate change. We’ll see more airco in Belgium and maybe even The Netherlands because we get more hot days each summer than we used to. I remember my childhood summers to be rainy, but nowadays they’re much sunnier and warmer.
North of Paris, the energy needs are more geared towards heating rather than cooling. Fossil fuels are going to be banned as a means of heating a home soon. E.g. in Belgium, where a lot of older homes like my father’s home are heated using oil, when those boilers fail they can’t be replaced with a new boiler anymore. Even gas boilers are now being deprecated.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Yes, many of those things use heat, and thus they need to be part of the system, getting waste heat from other sources. But they also produce a bunch of waste heat, and since they already have to be hooked up they can contribute it to the system. It's about efficiency. And it's way more complicated than in a car. Many of the uses of heat/cold are discretionary as to scheduling, so there are far more degrees of freedom too.

Nope waste heat from those is already contributing to interior ambient temperature, what would be the advantage of piling it through the HVAC ?

 

[Buckminster]

I'm sure you are correct in regard to computers and TV, they will become more and more efficient.
But the fridge? It is a reversed heat pump and it doesn't run continuously 24/7. Why not use it for other devices? Maybe it can be used for the hot water of the dish washer and the washing machine when it's not cooling? Not so much plumping necessary and soon you got less pumps or have inefficient resistance heaters replaced.
The kitchen has an increasing no. of other energy consumption machines that could be connected/combined and in this way disrupt another well established and less innovative industrial sector.

Nice, I think Tesla will likely start with an RV and work their way up to a modular home. Makes sense to integrate all uses of heat as above. Thread here:
Tesla House / trailer home / travel trailer / RV
Each RV/home could come with its own Optimus that is trained specifically on all the equipment.
With or without a butler bot, Tesla are then equipped to disrupt the following industries:

• Entire housing market
• Housebuilders
• Appliance manufacturers
• Restaurants - Optimus makes your food
• AirBnB
• Hotels
• RVs

and many more

Okay, okay, I will put away my Super Bull dreams for a couple of days...

For those interested in a standalone HVAC - see here:
Tesla heat pump / HVAC (non auto)

 

[Artful Dodger]

and many more

... Mars Base One.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[cliff harris]

Maybe, but other than some minor improvents FSD still makes most of the same mistakes it made a year ago.

And the major street extension and highway intersection change that was done just down from our neighbourhood 5 years ago still doesn’t show on their maps. Every time I come home from our trailer storage place the Nav shows me levitating thru a half mile of swamp, so they are obviously still using 6 year old maps for our area which would probably explain a bunch of other major fails it makes every drive.

My point is if I were a bean counter I wouldn’t count on achieving any sort of hands feee level 4 autonomy for years yet. Not a popular sentiment here but that’s jmho.

Also worth noting that FSD Beta is US only. Even if it goes full robotaxi tommorow, thats US only. FSD in Europe is way behind, and here in the UK, you basically pay £10,000 for your car to draw traffic cones and stop at traffic lights. I imagine the UK take-rate for FSD is trivial (Maybe just me!).
I know everyone is focused on how FSD Beta progresses in the US, but there is breadtha s well as depth. It would be interesting to investors to see the existing FSD Beta begin in Europe and Rest-of-world, even if the actual performance does not improve. That should be a BIG boost to FSD revenue.

 

[UncaNed]

Another Tesla heatpump walkaround video here:

A quick look at Tesla's HEAT PUMP! | @Ingineer (Nov 5, 2021)

All videos like this one, and discussions of Tesla's ground-breaking "heat pump", have one thing in common; they have nothing to do with the heat pump, but rather discussions of it's thermal inputs and outputs.

If indeed Tesla COULD make a significantly more efficient heat pump per se (compressor, scroll pump, heat exchangers, and whatever internal magic could make them so efficient, then if they released a standard, popular-sized domestic unit that decreased energy use by, say 25% over other popular models (especially in the hottest countries where summer temperatures are starting to reach 120F), they'd make a bigger worldwide practical decrease in energy use faster by doing that than building complicated systems that integrate many separate appliances into the heat pump system.

 

[ZeApelido]

In most of the EU there is no airco in private homes typically.

I would introduce you to some American stereotypes of Europeans, but I am above that.

 

[JRP3]

Beats me. Obviously, it's complicated. Exactly my point. I objected when you wrote "Home HVAC is much less complex than their vehicle system integration". I think it's much more complex. Seems to me, so do you.

No I don't because I understand it's useless to try and move small amounts of heat from various sources around a house. There is no magic Tesla can apply to this issue, the vehicle heat pump and octovalve is a clever integration of closely located already liquid cooled systems which simply do not exist in the home. There may be a possibility of combining refrigeration and water heating but since they usually aren't close to each other and since there isn't a huge amount of waste heat coming from an efficient fridge I'd say the gains are limited. It's just basic physics. If anything I'd say the Boring company could leverage their drilling knowledge to create a faster a much cheaper method of drilling for ground source heat pump applications which is the most energy efficient but most expensive to install.

 

[UncaNed]

Nope waste heat from those is already contributing to interior ambient temperature, what would be the advantage of piling it through the HVAC ?

Yeah, but in the summer, that's exactly the problem. The intense heat of the pointless dishwasher's "dry" cycle especially so; just open the door and just let it dry instead.

 

[JRP3]

- they require a lot of space, so you need to think about where to put them.
- the retrofitting of the piping required for the heat pump system is complex.
- heat pumps are noisy (about 60 dB) which requires permitting to prevent annoying of the neighbours. Reason No 1 for the noise is the compressor and reason No 2 is the fan.
- they also generate vibrations, which complicates the installation since you don‘t want to feel these vibrations in your house.

Depends on the unit I guess but I've installed 2 myself, one for my garage and one for my house, both 24KBTU units and the outside units take up less space than the old central air unit.
These were air to air mini split units so the only piping was through the wall for refrigerant.
I had a larger 40kBTU system installed at my mother's house, the inside unit replaced the old oil furnace and the outisde unit replaced the old central air compressor. Again piping was minimal just for refrigerant lines.
Unless you stand next to the outside unit you can't hear it and the only noise from the indoor unit is the circulating fan, in the basement, so again you can't hear it unless near it.
There are no noticeable vibrations.

- The generated heat is not specified in the video, but is higher than 6 kW. It may be 7.5 kWh. With this power, you could theorecitally heat a modern, good insulated house. By installing two of these heat pumps you could already heat the great majority of the houses.

Most of the time yes but in cold climates below about 15F you probably need a backup resistance heater which will draw 10kW or more alone, plus the draw of the heat pump as well.

 

[JRP3]

But the fridge? It is a reversed heat pump and it doesn't run continuously 24/7. Why not use it for other devices? Maybe it can be used for the hot water of the dish washer and the washing machine when it's not cooling?

The fridge exhausts heat when it's cooling, but touch your fridge when it running, it's not putting out that much heat, but yes that may be the one device that could contribute something to water heating, with the caveats I've already mentioned.

 

[2daMoon]

Yeah, but in the summer, that's exactly the problem. The intense heat of the pointless dishwasher's "dry" cycle especially so; just open the door and just let it dry instead.

The dishwasher here would get with me if I told her that her drying cycle was pointless.

She might open the door... and ask me to leave.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Also worth noting that FSD Beta is US only. Even if it goes full robotaxi tommorow, thats US only. FSD in Europe is way behind, and here in the UK, you basically pay £10,000 for your car to draw traffic cones and stop at traffic lights. I imagine the UK take-rate for FSD is trivial (Maybe just me!).
I know everyone is focused on how FSD Beta progresses in the US, but there is breadtha s well as depth. It would be interesting to investors to see the existing FSD Beta begin in Europe and Rest-of-world, even if the actual performance does not improve. That should be a BIG boost to FSD revenue.

FSD beta is also in Canada.

 

[unk45]

No I don't because I understand it's useless to try and move small amounts of heat from various sources around a house. There is no magic Tesla can apply to this issue, the vehicle heat pump and octovalve is a clever integration of closely located already liquid cooled systems which simply do not exist in the home. There may be a possibility of combining refrigeration and water heating but since they usually aren't close to each other and since there isn't a huge amount of waste heat coming from an efficient fridge I'd say the gains are limited. It's just basic physics. If anything I'd say the Boring company could leverage their drilling knowledge to create a faster a much cheaper method of drilling for ground source heat pump applications which is the most energy efficient but most expensive to install.

This and the several related posts do not mention the active heating and cooling management systems commonly used in industrial settings, notably those deployed by Tesla that appear to be increasingly effective in each new factory, coupled with water, paint, solvent and lubricant usage reductions. Were Tesla to apply that same rigorous attention to residential systems they would probably begin with commercial settings, expand to multi-family dwellings the eventually to single family housing. In this thread we seem to think only of the single family housing market.

Another major issue that Tesla obviously deploys is to design to minimize the need for artificial heating and cooling, then use the most efficient method to cope with the residual.

I offer as illustration only my personal experience from Bahrain and Rio de Janeiro. I have equivalent experience in several countries. In these two locations my house did/does not have air-conditioning. In both everyone around us does have it. Proper redesign have totally eliminated the need for A/C. How, will go off-topic. However, once avoidance of much of the need happens, anywhere, the residual is much easier to cope with though a heat pump (although I personally have none in a house).

As we consider what Tesla could do for residential markets, I strongly suspect they'll initially focus on new housing that can be designed to minimize needs, then use Tesla wizardry with heat pump design only for the residual. That is the easiest, most efficient and durable approach to this issue. As Tesla fans tend to say, "the best part is no part".

We need a new thread for these discussions. They are definitely Tesla-relevant, but not likely to have any short term financial consequence for TSLA valuation.

 

[Buckminster]

For those of you that are struggling to keep up with Elon’s extracurricular activities. And no, I’m not talking about whether he and grimes are still together in secret.

X Holdings owns X Corp
Twitter is now essentially renamed X Corp
X Corp also will start X, the everything app

Elon has also started X.AI
X.AI will run TruthGPT and also provide services to Twitter and Tesla. Tesla will likely provide Dojo services in return.

Elon is still running Boring Co and Neuralink in addition to SpaceX and Tesla.

The only additional future organisation that Elon has recently mentioned is an educational institution. This will own and vote Elon’s shares once he has returned to the unsimulated matrix.

 

[Xd85]

FWIW TL0 is up 1ish%

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Yeah, but in the summer, that's exactly the problem. The intense heat of the pointless dishwasher's "dry" cycle especially so; just open the door and just let it dry instead.

It's not pointless. A dry cycle in the dishwasher means that I can
1) Empty it before I go to bed OR
2) Go to bed and empty it in the morning

Now, if I had one that can open the door at the end of the cycle to help it dry that would be a bit different for the overnight case, but I prefer to get it emptied at night.

(Mine is a Bosch that uses hotter water for the dry cycle. It cleans well, but the interior layout sucks so I wouldn't recommend it.)

Anyway, on the general appliance topic, I really doubt you could save energy by ducting compared to having efficient appliances and a well-designed property with a central HVAC.