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https://techcrunch.com/2019/04/15/n...tric-vehicles-doubled-in-u-s-since-last-year/

Electric vehicles, still a small percentage of the total automotive market in the U.S., are beginning to gain ground, according to analysis by IHS Markit.

There were 208,000 new registrations for electric vehicles in the U.S. last year, more than double the number filed in 2017, IHS said Monday.

That growth in EVs was heavily concentrated in California, as well as nine other states that have adopted the Zero Emission Vehicle program. California was the first to launch the ZEV program‚ a state regulation that requires automakers to sell electric cars and trucks there. Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont are also ZEV states.

California accounted for nearly 46 percent, or 95,000, of new EV registrations in 2018, IHS said. California has 59 percent of market share of registered electric vehicles in the U.S.

Those numbers are expected to push even higher over the next two years as more electric vehicles come on the market and an increasing number of existing EV owners stick with the technology.
I've been pretty much the lone Tesla in my neck of the woods in NE Pennsylvania for 3 years up until recently. Yeah an occasional tourist but nothing local other than one other X that the owner only drives on nice days. Closest service center/showroom is about 70 miles from me and in a different state (NJ). In the past couple of months all of a sudden I'm seeing Model 3s every couple of days (several different colors so not the same one) and I know at least 2 people who bought a Model 3, so someone is buying them and I'm in the "T" in Pennsylvania, AKA Pennsyltucky. Not exactly prime Tesla territory. Was up in WIlkes-Barre at a school event with a couple of other out of the area Tesla owners and we were shocked to see 3 Model X's and an S pull up to drop kids off. Wilkes-Barre is even further away from any Tesla service centers. Did not see these last year when we did this. So does this mean that everyone that wants a Tesla now has one or does it mean that people who aren't an easy sell because they are in an area away from Tesla facilities but they are starting to buy despite the long distances because there is growing demand?
 
Haven’t heard a peep about the SEC. Deadline imposed by Judge for meeting between Elon’s attorneys and SEC and reporting back to Judge, according to my records, is 18Apr, day after tomorrow.

Anyone heard anything? Sure would like to see this cloud lifted, especially the effect on SP.
New Shortsville Times headline: Reasonableness pants factory to be opened in China soon
 
I like the two ways of looking at everything. It gets pretty entertaining to see peoples perspective.

Tesla has no demand so they are releasing the SR+.
OR
Tesla has a battery shortage so they are releasing the SR+ because the pack uses less batteries.

Tesla has a demand shortage so they are introducing leasing.
OR
Tesla has plenty of cash on hand so they introduced leasing because all real car companies lease cars.

Then there is Elon with his silly "There is no demand problem."
 
Looking at the NASDAQ option chain for TSLA 10 minutes ago and using last price
* For 100 strike J21s: $280.95 stock price needed before you are break even after full time decay
* For 270 strike J21s: $344.80 stock price needed before you are break even after full time decay
My analysis is mostly on ROI for a given SP & future date - well before maturity (say, you want to roll LEAPs every year). I'll post my numbers when I get some time.
 
Tesla started leasing, also made SR+ available in China and EU. This makes me feel the current demand is weak. If the demand were strong, they probably would delay leasing and SR+, try to make Q2 GAAP profitable.

Tesla should talk to some new BMW/Mercedes/Toyota/Honda/VW buyers, try to figure out why they are not buying Tesla instead. Survey is useless. They need to conduct case studies to really understand what's happening. If the cause is lack of awareness or influenced by FUD, Tesla should address accordingly instead of dropping price. Dropping price is not a good demand driver for a business with debt.

Another view is that Tesla is doing Blitzscaling (term coined by Reid Hoffman). I think that approach works well for PayPal, LinkedIn, eBay, etc. does not apply to Tesla. Tesla should figure out how to get the words to the public. Also they need to find a way to fight the FUD effectively. Based on my discussion with strangers, they are clearly influenced by FUD. If they don't pay attention, their reputation can be ruined by paid bashing, especially in China.

Yes, I agree, and I think Tesla should advertise to take control of the narrative. They cannot rely on social media alone because the signal to noise ratio is being polluted by a bunch of FUD, likely front run by "public relations" aka paid bashing firms. Also this won't be a popular comment with some of you, but Musk's behavior has turned off some potential buyers. (AKA "normies")

Most people have very little real info about EVs and Teslas and what they think they know is FUD. They certainly don't realize how much more advanced Tesla's tech is. For Tesla owners, it would be crazy to cross shop the Nissan Leaf at the same price point, yet I have read posts recently (on arstechnica in the comments) where people are doing just that and deciding on the leaf, because they are "concerned about the future of the company"

Here's my 30 second ad recommendation:

1. A women wakes up and pre-heats her Model 3 from the phone app, then shares a set of directions with her car from her appointment.
2. As she leaves the house it starts raining, so she uses advanced summon to bring her car to her front door.
3. In her car now she drives to the on ramp, where she engages NOA.
4. The car merges into traffic, overtakes a slower car and cut to it taking her exit and handing back control.
5. As the commercial ends we see the The Model 3, X and S on the road driving, then a large Tesla logo appears on the screen along with the text: Order or schedule a test drive on tesla.com/go

They should test this, perhaps in a regional market, and track it's effectiveness so they can decide if they are getting their money worth. For instance if they spend $5M on an advertising spot, and in that region they get $100M in new orders traceable to the ad campaign, then it was a good use of resources. This is how companies make decisions about investing in advertising campaigns.
 
If Tesla had a demand problem they'd be running ads. To me this is irrefutable - I won't believe in demand issues until I see some ads.

Did you miss all these other signs?

1. Price cuts
2. Price cuts again
3. 35k Model 3 (before it really existed) along with rash store closing announcement?
4. Leasing available
5. SR+ available in China and Europe

Why would they do these things if not to stimulate demand? Perhaps they are not advertising because someone at the top is opposed to the idea and prefers to spend money in other ways to stimulate demand (price cuts, referral program etc), others including myself think investing in advertising would be worth a look.
 
Tesla started leasing, also made SR+ available in China and EU. This makes me feel the current demand is weak. If the demand were strong, they probably would delay leasing and SR+, try to make Q2 GAAP profitable.

Tesla should talk to some new BMW/Mercedes/Toyota/Honda/VW buyers, try to figure out why they are not buying Tesla instead. Survey is useless. They need to conduct case studies to really understand what's happening. If the cause is lack of awareness or influenced by FUD, Tesla should address accordingly instead of dropping price. Dropping price is not a good demand driver for a business with debt.

Another view is that Tesla is doing Blitzscaling (term coined by Reid Hoffman). I think that approach works well for PayPal, LinkedIn, eBay, etc. does not apply to Tesla. Tesla should figure out how to get the words to the public. Also they need to find a way to fight the FUD effectively. Based on my discussion with strangers, they are clearly influenced by FUD. If they don't pay attention, their reputation can be ruined by paid bashing, especially in China.
Pushing SR+ is the right move if cell is limited. Hence why Tesla isn't publicly selling RWD, only AWD/P.
 
I don’t believe Tesla has a demand “problem” with the Model 3. They just currently probably can’t sell 5000-7000 $45,000+ non-leased cars a week in the current limited markets in which they’re offered. That is not a “problem”. It just means that they have to start using demand levers (like every other manufacturer on earth).

Just because Tesla can’t maintain a three-year waiting list for a car doesn’t mean they can’t find buyers. It just means they have to start doing the kinds of things that EVERYONE else does.

BMW and Audi offer leases AND advertise. Does this mean they have a demand “problem”? Of course not.

This demand “problem” stuff is horses*it talk that the shorts made up to manufacture fear, and many here are soaking it up like a FUD sponge.

How many automakers out there don’t offer leasing?

Among those, How many don’t advertise?

Among those, how many still aren’t selling in RHD markets?

And how many of those are offering entirely completely new models that many have never seen before?

If that list didn’t become zero by the second or third question, then shove a pipe in my mouth and call me Sherlock Holmes.

Start leasing, advertise, produce for RHD markets like UK and Australia, and give the new markets a little time for word of mouth advertising to take off.

Once Tesla has done all of that, if there are still issues, then we can call it a “demand problem.” Until then, it’s just FUD.

There’s a reason FUD starts with F-You.

That’s exactly what it’s trying to do.

Don’t let it.
 
Did you miss all these other signs?

1. Price cuts
2. Price cuts again
3. 35k Model 3 (before it really existed) along with rash store closing announcement?
4. Leasing available
5. SR+ available in China and Europe

Why would they do these things if not to stimulate demand? Perhaps they are not advertising because someone at the top is opposed to the idea and prefers to spend money in other ways to stimulate demand (price cuts, referral program etc), others including myself think investing in advertising would be worth a look.

eh, it doesn't have to be that they are ideologically opposed to the idea. may just be that they haven't had the time to roll one out and are working on it.

said this last night, but when you have a top in class product and brand like Tesla does demand is never really an issue that can't be solved by re-evaluating your marketing/sales strategy (on that note I do think closing the stores was a dumb decision for advertising reasons more or less, but it appears most will stay open)
 
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Tesla started leasing, also made SR+ available in China and EU. This makes me feel the current demand is weak. If the demand were strong, they probably would delay leasing and SR+, try to make Q2 GAAP profitable.

Tesla should talk to some new BMW/Mercedes/Toyota/Honda/VW buyers, try to figure out why they are not buying Tesla instead. Survey is useless. They need to conduct case studies to really understand what's happening. If the cause is lack of awareness or influenced by FUD, Tesla should address accordingly instead of dropping price. Dropping price is not a good demand driver for a business with debt.

Another view is that Tesla is doing Blitzscaling (term coined by Reid Hoffman). I think that approach works well for PayPal, LinkedIn, eBay, etc. does not apply to Tesla. Tesla should figure out how to get the words to the public. Also they need to find a way to fight the FUD effectively. Based on my discussion with strangers, they are clearly influenced by FUD. If they don't pay attention, their reputation can be ruined by paid bashing, especially in China.
Another view is maybe BMW/Mercedes... should talk to Tesla owners on why they are not buying theirs instead.
Tesla price reduction is the goal not the demand lever.