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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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In case you didn't know, he is widely considered one of the top guys in AI in the entire world. Companies and top universities kill to hire a person like that. He has no incentive to eat anybody's sugar. You bet he is working on something he consider worthwhile and interesting.

 
At least built in maid service.

Frunk monkey?
The best disinfectant is sunlight:

Nafnlaus on Twitter

*** Okay, not really, sunlight is actually a marginal disinfectant at best. But it makes for a nice saying!

**** Depends on the sun, along with distance and atmosphere/ magnetic field effects. :)
Although... is it a good disinfectant if it also destroys the object?
 
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Once any Gov't signs off on Level 5 FSD, then insurance will be available to cover any edge risks, probably similar to the coverage that Uber/Lyft provides today.

Also, on a side note, the commercial value for companies not having to pay drivers will result in keeping FSD through heavy lobbying, even if there were setbacks from freak accidents. Much the same way as the cell phone companies lobbied to keep texting while driving legal.
Jumping in here... I've personally seen waymos w/o drivers last year (remotely monitored). So far on freeways, flawless for me, and that's on last weeks update.
 
I don't understand why Tesla still is not starting car insurance business. This has been discussed many times in the past. With one accident every 2 million miles, the combined rate (payout: premium) could be as low as 30%. Most insurance businesses have combined rate of 98~110%. This would force other companies to reduce premium on Tesla cars, but they can't compete because Tesla knows the cars and drivers better, and Tesla can fix the cars in their own shops, real vertical integration. This would benefit car owners too. From insurance business alone, I estimate Tesla can earn $500 from each car per year. That's about $8k (with investment gain) on each car in 10 years, $8B profit from every 1 million cars.

Insurance is regulated on a state-by-state basis. A company has to be "admitted" (aka licensed) to be able to write policies in each jurisdiction. Insurers are required to maintain significant reserves for paying claims (ever hear of GICs?). Tesla has far better things to do with its capital, and has enough on its plate without wandering into a specialized field where it has zero experience. Jack Rickard seems to think there are a lot of wrecked Teslas offered at Copart.
 
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A good sign for q2, though expect to hear nonsense from the shorts on increased repair costs.

Tesla Puts an End to Goodwill Repairs

They had been rotating my winter wheel/tire set and summer wheel/tire set for free. About time they charged me:)......They did on the latest change over last week.

Tesla does not have to make a 'killing' on service but they do need at least to break even.


EDIT: The Mobile tech who did it apologized for charging me...I said..NO problem. Thanks for the other times you did not in the early days.
 
Tesla started leasing, also made SR+ available in China and EU. This makes me feel the current demand is weak. If the demand were strong, they probably would delay leasing and SR+, try to make Q2 GAAP profitable.

Tesla should talk to some new BMW/Mercedes/Toyota/Honda/VW buyers, try to figure out why they are not buying Tesla instead. Survey is useless. They need to conduct case studies to really understand what's happening. If the cause is lack of awareness or influenced by FUD, Tesla should address accordingly instead of dropping price. Dropping price is not a good demand driver for a business with debt.

Another view is that Tesla is doing Blitzscaling (term coined by Reid Hoffman). I think that approach works well for PayPal, LinkedIn, eBay, etc. does not apply to Tesla. Tesla should figure out how to get the words to the public. Also they need to find a way to fight the FUD effectively. Based on my discussion with strangers, they are clearly influenced by FUD. If they don't pay attention, their reputation can be ruined by paid bashing, especially in China.
 
Concerning that the article’s author believes April 16th is “already halfway through he quarter.”

It seems the article was written in November of 2018 (and the writer is ignorant of Tesla's other profitable quarters).
With 82 Tesla Service Centers in the U.S, this is upwards of $300 million in quarterly expenditures. This is significant as Tesla’s only profitable quarter turned a $312 million profit.
But then they say this...
If this information turns out to be accurate, Tesla is a lot closer to turning a profit this quarter than they were the previous.
Which implies it was written after a non profitable quarter, which has not officially hapoened since Q2 2018...

I think they are completely inconsistent with chronology...
 
https://techcrunch.com/2019/04/15/n...tric-vehicles-doubled-in-u-s-since-last-year/

Electric vehicles, still a small percentage of the total automotive market in the U.S., are beginning to gain ground, according to analysis by IHS Markit.

There were 208,000 new registrations for electric vehicles in the U.S. last year, more than double the number filed in 2017, IHS said Monday.

That growth in EVs was heavily concentrated in California, as well as nine other states that have adopted the Zero Emission Vehicle program. California was the first to launch the ZEV program‚ a state regulation that requires automakers to sell electric cars and trucks there. Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont are also ZEV states.

California accounted for nearly 46 percent, or 95,000, of new EV registrations in 2018, IHS said. California has 59 percent of market share of registered electric vehicles in the U.S.

Those numbers are expected to push even higher over the next two years as more electric vehicles come on the market and an increasing number of existing EV owners stick with the technology.
 
Tesla started leasing, also made SR+ available in China and EU. This makes me feel the current demand is weak. If the demand were strong, they probably would delay leasing and SR+, try to make Q2 GAAP profitable.

If Tesla had a demand problem they'd be running ads. To me this is irrefutable - I won't believe in demand issues until I see some ads.
 
Is this really that different from buying shares + ATM Leaps ?

Looking at the NASDAQ option chain for TSLA 10 minutes ago and using last price
* For 100 strike J21s: $280.95 stock price needed before you are break even after full time decay
* For 270 strike J21s: $344.80 stock price needed before you are break even after full time decay
 
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It seems the article was written in November of 2018 (and the writer is ignorant of Tesla's other profitable quarters).

But then they say this...

Which implies it was written after a non profitable quarter, which has not officially hapoened since Q2 2018...

I think they are completely inconsistent with chronology...

Where are you seeing that it was written in November? It has today's date at the top.
 
Any theories on TRowPrice’s selling their near 10% stake?

I think they used the run up in Q4 to liquidate (someone alluded to that mysterious fall from high 300s to 295.)

Reason could be many but could be that they decided to sell right after the SEC lawsuit and may have waited for the right opportunity. Thoughts?
It's odd that TROW hasn't filed a 13G/A for dropping below 5%.
Amendment Requirements for SEC 13D and 13G Filers | IB Knowledge Base
 
It seems the article was written in November of 2018 (and the writer is ignorant of Tesla's other profitable quarters).

But then they say this...

Which implies it was written after a non profitable quarter, which has not officially hapoened since Q2 2018...

I think they are completely inconsistent with chronology...

Where are you seeing that it was written in November? It has today's date at the top.
Yes, this is the top article on their site now. Tells me the reporter didn't do his / her backstory research properly.
 
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