Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Given it's been over 3 years since FSD began recognizing and responding to stop signs, and it still does not recognize 'stop sign coming up soon' ones, I'm not sure your use of "just" reflects the difficulty involved. Likewise about 3 years for reading speed limits, but still does not read condition ones (ie ones with time or date restrictions).

There are something like 100ish different federally standardized traffic control and warning signs, to my knowledge FSD does not recognize any of them other than STOP, SPEED LIMIT (but not restricted) and YIELD (and it's been hit and miss on reacting properly to those honestly with it sometimes treating it like a stop even without oncoming traffic and other times not slowing down for it at all- neither being correct reaction to a yield sign).


And another quick reminder this forum exists where this discussion really belongs:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

Tesla is still working on the FUNDATIONAL model of FSD. Localization is a difficult problem without HD maps and Lidar. However they are getting pretty close at solving localization..the extremely difficult part all other companies skipped. NN end to end deals with the final stage of their foundational model.

I expect Tesla to start adding more signs/ability to read signs/roads names after they are satisfied with localization. In the mean time, the car can do a lot of the driving by itself just with the few limited signs Tesla added to system plus map data.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673347087512248321

 

[petit_bateau]

Which is why I believe TSLA will still rally hard throughout 2024. GigaMexico/Gen 3 was necessarily needed for a large rally.

We have Cybertruck, Semi ramp, Energy (which if it continues its ramp trend it will finally start to meaningfully impact earnings in 2024), FSD (which rate of improvement continues and Dojo officially coming online now), along with smaller things to bolster earnings/margins which are continued IRA credits as Tesla ramps 4680 volume, increased Supercharger revenue from higher usage rates, and continued expansion of Insurance that will grow quickly as more states open combined with US production/delivery dramatically increasing from Austin and all Canadian deliveries coming from Shanghai now.

The only potential negative is if Gen 3 is moved off to 2025 and worldwide, interest rates continue to stay high, 3/Y prices might need to come down even more to sustain the increased production from Berlin/Austin. I'm of the belief that the Fed will start slowly dropping rates at the beginning of Q4 2023 and get back to 3.5% by mid 2024 which is where they'll keep rates for a long time. So I think demand from affordability increases naturally for Tesla at the end of this year and all throughout 2024.

The major negative which no-one seems to be mentioning is the lack of cell supply.

That is the problem with 2023, 2024, and likely 2025.

That is the reason why the ramp rates for Berlin and Austin are way behind the corresponding ramp rates for Fremont and Shanghai, which are both on now on plateau.

It is all about the cell supply.

Everything else is lipstick.

 

[wipster]

StarFoxWasRight. TM.

StarFoxIsStillADowner. ©

 

[SmokyPeat]

Shoot, I guess this means $300 isn't in the cards for this week.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The major negative which no-one seems to be mentioning is the lack of cell supply.

That is the problem with 2023, 2024, and likely 2025.

That is the reason why the ramp rates for Berlin and Austin are way behind the corresponding ramp rates for Fremont and Shanghai, which are both on now on plateau.

It is all about the cell supply.

Everything else is lipstick.

View attachment 950997

Both Berlin and Austin have already hit their 5k/week ramp rates earlier in this quarter. So they're not way behind Fremont. In fact, they're pretty much right at Fremont's pace. Berlin hit 5K/week back at the end of Q1 and Austin hit it in early May. Now the question becomes how consistent they were with those weekly rates. That'll be answered in 6 days, but if they were 90% consistent, then they are right on schedule with Fremont.

Obviously Shanghai was the exception and we all know the reasons why. Nothing's ever going to compare to Shanghai until Tesla has an army of Optimus running it's factories, not humans.

Also just a reminder, look back at what happened with Tesla's margins once they reach the 5k/week number for an entire quarter on the 3 and Y ramps. We have two factories that potentially just had their first quarters of at or near the full 5k/week number. Sure price cuts/incentives will eat somewhat into the realization of the improvement of gross margins thanks to Berlin/Austin averaging 5k/week for an entire quarter, but it will still make a material impact.

 

[Rarity]

For the ignormus in here, what does 'unboxed' approach mean? Assemble like a kit ?

No, it's to get rid of the moving assembly line more or less. Here's the relevant part at the investor day @ 48:05, or even earlier @ 46:00 for more details.

2023 Investor Day

We plan to host Tesla's 2023 Investor Day on March 1, 2023. Our investors will be able to see our most advanced production line as well as discuss long term ...

www.youtube.com

 

[Stormy24]

Shoot, I guess this means $300 isn't in the cards for this week.

$250 is on the card…. Perhaps…might be…

 

[Buckminster]

For the ignormus in here, what does 'unboxed' approach mean? Assemble like a kit ?

Modular assembly:
"Unboxed" Gen 3 manufacturing Process

Other threads of the day:
FSD V12 (end to end AI) Ashok video
FSD discussion Gerber...

 

[EVMeister]

Here's a nice compilation of recent Cybertruck footage to cheer you all up, courtesy of Ferzad Mesbahi.

 

[gillfoto]

Maybe to fit these.

View attachment 950756

Misunderstanding I thought we were talking about "front facia lifting"? I'm all in on the frunk.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Also just a reminder, look back at what happened with Tesla's margins once they reach the 5k/week number for an entire quarter on the 3 and Y ramps. We have two factories that potentially just had their first quarters of at or near the full 5k/week number. Sure price cuts/incentives will eat somewhat into the realization of the improvement of gross margins thanks to Berlin/Austin averaging 5k/week for an entire quarter, but it will still make a material impact.

Except Troy's VIN analysis clearly shows (especially Austin) they aren't near 5k/week steady state, more like 3500 / week.

You said there was all this evidence / comments that they are indeed at a sustained 5k rate, I would love to see it.

 

[Accident]

Here's the latest ASP data from Washington state. Prices were trending down as of last month.

Month	Model 3	Model S	Model X	Model Y
Jan-22​	53319.947​	105205.18​	121951.11​	60269.08​
Feb-22​	53864.631​	105796.82​	123819.63​	60865.436​
Mar-22​	53483.732​	101258.63​	114021.64​	66575.603​
Apr-22​	57053.348​	99196​	120290​	64070.676​
May-22​	55498.979​	112466.75​	118716.85​	62628.545​
Jun-22​	57424.16​	114271.52​	122447.24​	65920.354​
Jul-22​	53612.714​	118158.82​	135635.45​	66020.574​
Aug-22​	56437.424​	111998.69​	119316.11​	65167.598​
Sep-22​	56598.382​	109581.32​	118046.8​	67097.431​
Oct-22​	55316.717​	110322.13​	110218.05​	63475.341​
Nov-22​	55152.107​	123843.47​	113647.05​	68417.644​
Dec-22​	51484.37​	118099.83​	122201.55​	64756.907​
Jan-23​	50154.038​	121354​	119722.5​	57951.07​
Feb-23​	48611.711​	103195.29​	120546.84​	57993.671​
Mar-23​	47524.31​	95790.435​	113559.85​	60293.123​
Apr-23​	45540.941​	96521.094​	109049.83​	56084.968​
May-23​	43994.4​	90231.667​	109130​	53630.485​

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Except Troy's VIN analysis clearly shows (especially Austin) they aren't near 5k/week steady state, more like 3500 / week.

You said there was all this evidence / comments that they are indeed at a sustained 5k rate, I would love to see it.

I've already linked to the twitter account that tracks Berlin's production in association with vin's being registered that puts Berlin over 5k/week production for around a month now. You can go back to my posts last week where I linked too that......in a response to you in fact . That same Twitter account has Berlin at 4500/week for all of Q2 if you average out the updates

As for Austin, you can go off of Troy's limited Vin information if you want. Fine by me.

Also, I clearly nowhere said that there was evidence of sustained 5k weekly rate from both Berlin and Austin.

Edit: Since I'm feeling generous and saving you the sake of going through my old posts, here :

https://twitter.com/StatsTesla

As you can see, there's a couple week gap between when Tesla announced Berlin 5k/week rate was hit and then it showed up in the Vins. A rate that has stayed consistent since.

 

[petit_bateau]

I've already linked to the twitter account that tracks Berlin's production in association with vin's being registered that puts Berlin over 5k/week production for over a month now. You can go back to my posts last week where I linked too that......in a response to you in fact . That same Twitter account has Berlin at 4500/week for all of Q2 before the rate jumped into 5k/week. In fact, some of the weeks it's a few hundred over 5k/week.

As for Austin, you can go off of Troy's limited Vin information if you want. Fine by me.

Also, I clearly nowhere said that there was evidence of sustained 5k weekly rate from both Berlin and Austin.

Edit: Since I'm feeling generous and saving you the sake of going through my old posts, here :

https://twitter.com/StatsTesla

As you can see, there's a couple week gap between when Tesla announced Berlin 5k/week rate was hit and then it showed up in the Vins. A rate that has stayed consistent since.

The data is the data (as far as we can see it). Comparing like with like Berlin+Austin are about 1.5Q behind where Fremont+Shanghai were.

Since Fremont and Shanghai opened I'd like to think that Tesla has learned more about manufacturing and selling the 3/Y. So it should be easier, not harder.

The issue is the cell availability.

As investors we need to look at the facts

And the facts are that Tesla is not getting the batteries it needs in either absolute or % terms, and that this is inhibiting the required growth, and that this situation is worse than it was before.

The implication is that the 4680 ramp is not where it needs to be.

(FWIW I do not like this one bit, but these are the facts as far as I can see them)

 

[gene]

Tesla pulls out of Gigafactory negotiations with Valencia over leak: Report

Tesla is apparently no longer interested in building a Gigfactory in Spain as the company has reportedly pulled out of negotiations with the regional government of Valencia after news of their negotiations leaked to the […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[scaesare]

In what way, larger bumper sticker or advertising billboard?

I'll presume you were joking.... but in case you weren't, the obvious advantage of a lower front lip to lift stuff in to it.

 

[Motor Mouth]

Tesla pulls out of Gigafactory negotiations with Valencia over leak: Report

Tesla is apparently no longer interested in building a Gigfactory in Spain as the company has reportedly pulled out of negotiations with the regional government of Valencia after news of their negotiations leaked to the […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Darn

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla pulls out of Gigafactory negotiations with Valencia over leak: Report

Tesla is apparently no longer interested in building a Gigfactory in Spain as the company has reportedly pulled out of negotiations with the regional government of Valencia after news of their negotiations leaked to the […]

driveteslacanada.ca

This seems odd. There must be something more to it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Misunderstanding I thought we were talking about "front facia lifting"? I'm all in on the frunk.

You were. The part about it being "handy" led me on another trail.

 

[JRP3]

This seems odd. There must be something more to it.

Indeed, it seems like a lame excuse to stop the deal without some other factors involved.