Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cliff harris]

I have to roll my eyes a bit at the wall st reaction. Maybe some context is helpful. Not everyone here has held the stock for years, so its worth restating what people know who have listened to countless Tesla earnings calls. (I've been at it for about 8 years now!0.

Unless you fancy yourself some 4D chess day-trader.... DO NOT SELL. This happens now and then with Tesla earnings. The stock is hugely manipulated, and wall st are also terrible at understanding the company. Sometimes, with zero news, the stock rockets like crazy, some times, especially after 'analysts' get to ask elon dumb questions, the stock dives.

By far the easiest way to make a fortune from TSLA is to buy and hold. You are NOT better than everyone else art timing the market. Tomorrow TSLA could drop another 10%, or go up 20%. Its incredibly hard to predict. Selling now to 'get back in even lower' is how a lot of traders ended up losing a fortune on this stock.

Earnings had zero bad news. The only downside was elon rambled a bit, and no positive surprises. People are reading too much into the proposed Q3 downtime for retooling. Thats clearly highland, which should both cut costs and boost production. Do people REALLY think that Tesla would do that if they hadn't run the numbers and calculated it would earn more money long term?

Hold, or Buy. Anybody who sells right now, on the verge of first cybertruck production and pre-highland is going to feel very silly.

Personally I wont sell anything below $300-350. Waiting for $400 to sell a noticeable chunk. Holding 3/4 of my shares for 5+ more years, teslabot,dojo,model2,fsd.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Yep, this is the hidden "cheat code" for buying a Tesla if you want FSD. You may have to be a bit patient and accept that it will have a few miles on it (10-20k is fine in my book), but you can get FSD very cheaply this way. This is the approach we took last year with our Y.

Ya made me look. Our replacement Y (last summer peak) was lump sum (plus tax!). I can't believe we paid this much for one. I also can't believe Allstate paid that much for the old one. So it's a wash. Our bank better be nice to us though.

 

[Curt Renz]

The Cool Down - today:
Tesla driver shares disturbing video after being harassed by pickup trucks: ‘Should be a punishable federal crime’

 

[navguy12]

Makes no sense, Bad PR.
We're missing something. Loopholes? Liability? What?

It makes total sense.

Tesla want you to buy a new car.

The carrot is you get to switch your FSD to said new car instead of hanging onto your antique early build TM3/Y whatever.

But, you can’t have your cake and eat it too by somehow selling your FSD to someone else AND transferring your FSD to the new car you are buying in Q3.

 

[Knightshade]

It makes total sense.

Tesla want you to buy a new car.

The carrot is you get to switch your FSD to said new car instead of hanging onto your antique early build TM3/Y whatever.

But, you can’t have your cake and eat it too by somehow selling your FSD to someone else AND transferring your FSD to the new car you are buying in Q3.

You're misunderstanding the clause.

it's saying you can transfer it (at which point the old car does not have it- so you aren't "somehow selling FSD" to someone else when you dispose of it...) but then in the future you ALSO can't sell it on the car it's transferred TO per these new terms. You'll get to sell it 0 total times.

Which means you end up with a "worse" version of FSD than you started with....because the one you started with you can sell 1 time.


I'm gonna pass and wait until Tesla is forced to admit they can't actually deliver the FSD I was promised on HW3 and they have to make me a better offer than this junk one.

 

[2daMoon]

Well, gotta agree about how this dip is very frustrating. I'm afraid that it's time to face facts.

Just a few days ago TSLA was up over 170% for the year. (using 2022 closing price)

Now, we're up a piddly 143% for the year, and that's just not enough. Am I right? Don't most other stocks perform better?

Surely there is a stock with higher gains, a brighter future, and a proven long-term track record. Once I find it, I'll liquidate my TSLA position and put it all there...

...just as soon as I find it.​

It is just so painful to have to settle for sub 150% gains, particularly when we're halfway through the year already.

/S

HODL

 

[replicant]

The Cool Down - today:
Tesla driver shares disturbing video after being harassed by pickup trucks: ‘Should be a punishable federal crime’

What a bad website. Here in France the URL redirects to msn.com/index.

 

[Knightshade]

Well, gotta agree about how this dip is very frustrating. I'm afraid that it's time to face facts.

Just a few days ago TSLA was up over 170% for the year. (using 2022 closing price)

Now, we're up a piddly 143% for the year, and that's just not enough. Am I right? Don't most other stocks perform better?

TBF that's some Gordon Johnson level cherry picking though.

We are down -3.24% for the trailing 12 months.

And a LOT more than that from the ATH.

 

[Drumheller]

Well, gotta agree about how this dip is very frustrating. I'm afraid that it's time to face facts.

Just a few days ago TSLA was up over 170% for the year. (using 2022 closing price)

Now, we're up a piddly 143% for the year, and that's just not enough. Am I right? Don't most other stocks perform better?

Surely there is a stock with higher gains, a brighter future, and a proven long-term track record. Once I find it, I'll liquidate my TSLA position and put it all there...

...just as soon as I find it.​

It is just so painful to have to settle for sub 150% gains, particularly when we're halfway through the year already.

/S

HODL

TSLA is currently down 36% from where it was in November 2021.

Up 170% in 2023 from an absurd price it fell to by the end of 2022.

For those that bought at the lows of 2023, it's been a great run. For those that had shares from 2021, this looks like an attempt at recovery, not new gains.

 

[MC3OZ]

I think you are asking 2 interesting implied questions here:-

1. What will the ramp of a Gen3 production line look like?
2. Why are the current production line shutdowns happening?

While we can't be certain, I hope the answer to 2. is that the current shutdowns are for things like Model 3 Highland, and the long run end result of those shutdowns will be higher production from the same lines. And I also hope that a shutdown this year means that future shutdowns are less likely.

We could summarise that by saying, Tesla is trying to complete all other major shutdowns and ramps before starting the Gen3 ramp.

Returning to the Gen3 ramp Q 1, poses additional questions.

A. How does the unboxed process impact on capex spend, and the overhead costs of ramping a factory?​

B. Does an unboxed factory ramp faster?​

C. Does unboxed mean more lines and a simple copy-and-paste to add new lines?​

D. What impact does 2 for the price of 1 have on the Gen 3 ramp?​

E. Does a more mature 4680 production process help guarantee cell supply?​

​

Some element of "production hell" for the first Gen3 ramp would not be a total surprise, but fundamentally it seems like a simple process, except for the final assembly when all major parts of the car are put together.

As we learn more about Cybertruck production we can see how the final major assembly phase of a Cybertruck might be similar to a Gen3 process, Stainless steel panels are used instead of painted panels. they may be larger and more structural, but in some ways the process could be similar.

Some additional thoughts.

For the target of 20 Million cars per year 12-15 Million will be Gen3.

5 Million Model 3/Y, S/X, Cybertruck and perhaps a few others. Some of these may be built after Gen3 and may be a slower ramp.

IMO Gen3 will be 5-7 factories each making 2-3 Models with annual volume of 2-3 Million per factory.

But more importantly these 5-7 factories will be a cut-and-paste with the same parts being assembled via the same manufacturing process, with the same machinery. When one factory improves the process that change will flow through to other factories, with efforts made to keep them in sync.

Giga-Mexico gives us some idea of what to expect with Tesla encouraging parts supplies to set up local facilities, as far as possible all parts and raw materials will be localized.


Possible Gen3 factory locations:-

• Mexico
• India
• USA
• Europe
• China
• Brazil?

It isn't hard to find 5-6 good factory locations, the location of a 7th factory is hard to guess, but might be another factory in Europe.

 

[mongo]

Which means you end up with a "worse" version of FSD than you started with....because the one you started with you can sell 1 time.

Clause 4 relates to the transferred FSD, not an original purchase (which has no vehicle resale limits). If planning on trading in your car anyway, you end up with a better deal.

Old: trade in car get some credit due to FSD, go home without FSD
No FSD to anyone who buys your car

Q3 only: trade in car, go home with FSD
No FSD to anyone who buys your car

 

[EVWatcher]

Reports are in that a trade-in will not be required, you can just move FSD to a new vehicle purchase: How to get your free FSD transfer - trade-in not required [Update]

But it seems that the "within a reasonable time" of the end of Q3 portion got dropped. Take delivery by 9/30 to qualify:

Full terms: (Which are basically identical to how they handled the lifetime Free Unlimited Supercharging to 6 years of free Supercharging on a new vehicle promotion.)

Sounds like a good way to clear out existing inventory while they switch to something different in the upgrades?

 

[2daMoon]

TSLA is currently down 36% from where it was in November 2021.

Up 170% in 2023 from an absurd price it fell to by the end of 2022.

For those that bought at the lows of 2023, it's been a great run. For those that had shares from 2021, this looks like an attempt at recovery, not new gains.

I still feel pretty darn good about this year's gains.

They are quite a bit better than the alternative, i.e.: prolonged suffering through more of what 2022 gave us.

YMMV

 

[Singuy]

You're misunderstanding the clause.

it's saying you can transfer it (at which point the old car does not have it- so you aren't "somehow selling FSD" to someone else when you dispose of it...) but then in the future you ALSO can't sell it on the car it's transferred TO per these new terms. You'll get to sell it 0 total times.

Which means you end up with a "worse" version of FSD than you started with....because the one you started with you can sell 1 time.


I'm gonna pass and wait until Tesla is forced to admit they can't actually deliver the FSD I was promised on HW3 and they have to make me a better offer than this junk one.

Isn't fsd tied to the Vin and not to a person?

I just thought the clause is saying they will decouple fsd from vin just this once and that's it.

 

[MC3OZ]

We offer it everywhere and the car buyer agrees to use it to get FSD turned on.

Or perhaps the customers gets a lower premium from Tesla insurance if they have a car that mostly drives on FSD.

FSD solves the main problem insurance companies have which is, bad, inexperienced, or distracted drivers.

Other insurance companies could also offer drivers with FSD capable cars a discount, but Tesla has the data which indicates how safe the driver is and perhaps even the relative safety of their regular routes. Data probably gives Tesla some pricing edge.

If is the carrot and the carrot for other car bands.

Carrot1 - FSD,, Carrot2 - cheaper insurance.

Customers will soon work out which car brands don't have any carrots

Rather than an attempt to dominate, this helps the mission, by lowering the total cost of ownership of EVs.
Cheaper insurance cost may help offset the upfront cost of FSD.

 

[EVWatcher]

My guess is everyone is speculating just like me. But does anyone feel confident about WHAT the retooling shutdown is achieving? Is all production shifting over to GEN3? If that’s the case Q4 margins will be bonkers won’t they? GEN3 seemed like it had some pretty sweet reductions in cost

 

[Knightshade]

Clause 4 relates to the transferred FSD, not an original purchase (which has no vehicle resale limits). If planning on trading in your car anyway, you end up with a better deal.

ONLY because Elon never kept his promise to offer reasonable value for FSD on a trade in.

But you don't HAVE to trade in- today you can private-sale your FSD car and get something for it. That goes away with this deal.

Old: trade in car get some credit due to FSD, go home without FSD
No FSD to anyone who buys your car

Q3 only: trade in car, go home with FSD
No FSD to anyone who buys your car

Yeah if you trade. But not private sale.


Clause 3 covers the old vehicle.
There you agree Tesla will remove it from that old vehicle, so it can't be "sold" if you choose to sell that vehicle- because it's no longer ON that vehicle. It mentions trading in as an option here- but NOT a requirement.

Clause 4 covers the new vehicle...which FSD is being transfered on to- but can not be transfered AGAIN--- not even if you sell it privately.
That's a flat out worse version of FSD than you have now, because your current version DOES go with the vehicle if you sell it privately today.



Old: Sell car privately, FSD goes with it and you get whatever FSD is worth to the used car buyer. FSD absolutely goes to whoever buys your car and you got SOMETHING of value for it when selling the car.

New: Old car loses FSD, new car gets it. But new car doesn't KEEP it if you sell it privately later- you get nothing back for it in the end when getting rid of the car.

Isn't fsd tied to the Vin and not to a person?

I just thought the clause is saying they will decouple fsd from vin just this once and that's it.

See above. Decouple is clause 3, what happens on the new car is 4. There's no reason to mention not transferring in a private sale in clause 4 unless they're changing the nature of FSD STAYING with the new VIN after it has been transferred to the new car.


As someone else mentioned- this is the same thing they did with lifetime supercharging.

Originally it meant lifetime of the car. In private sale it went with the car. Just like FSD did

Later lifetime supercharging was just the lifetime of the original ownership of the car- and once it went to someone else, even in private sale, you lost it. The "new" transferred FSD reads the same way....thus making it a "worse" version because you lose the ability to get any $ from it via private sale in the future.

My guess is everyone is speculating just like me. But does anyone feel confident about WHAT the retooling shutdown is achieving? Is all production shifting over to GEN3? If that’s the case Q4 margins will be bonkers won’t they? GEN3 seemed like it had some pretty sweet reductions in cost

AFAIK retooling is expected to be the Highland update on Model 3--- it is NOT the next-gen vehicle, which will have initial production in the new factory in Mexico.

 

[MC3OZ]

Here an update from my analysis from May 20, 2023 after yesterday’s earnings.
4680 Gen II is still not ready but at least Tesla found other ways to increase the energy density by 10 % vs Gen I (Goal for Gen II was approx. 20 %).

I was disapointed by Elon sometimes not answering the questions, but maybe he took one for the team and the chatter is now about Elon behaving bad (and less about the risk of a slower than expected ramp of 4680 production in the next quarters, which would affect the ramps in Texas (Model Y, Cybertruck) and Nevada (Semi with 2170 batteries, new 4680 production facility).

Since 4680 scale-up may be late, I see the possibility that Model 3 with the Highland update will also in the US rely on batteries from CATL, which doesn’t need to be bad from a customers perspective. This would free up 2170 batteries for a production increase of the Model Y and later for Semi.

After all, we can not blame the Tesla team for not trying hard. The performance of Tesla’s 4680 batteries are on par with the ones of their best competitors (probably better but also currently more expensive). There are also other competitors struggeling to ramp up the battery production very fast.

My take on the 4680 update from Drew was very bullish.

The Cybercell achieved the required energy density for initial CT production essentially via packaging improvements. IMO it is very likely that those improvements are at cell and pack level and an improved structural battery pack design might be very signicantly.

Drew specially said the Cathode and Anode improvements from battery day are not included at this stage. That means there is another up to 24% increase in range that is possible once these improvements can be implemented.

Cathode improvements were always dependent on the Cathode plant that is being built at Austin.

Cost reduction is a function of the cathode plant, the lithium refinery, energy density improvements, and the production ramp with a host of small design and process improvements.

The big advantage of building your own stuff is the opportunity to get better at it, and to bank the profits.

 

[Mengy]

My guess is everyone is speculating just like me. But does anyone feel confident about WHAT the retooling shutdown is achieving? Is all production shifting over to GEN3? If that’s the case Q4 margins will be bonkers won’t they? GEN3 seemed like it had some pretty sweet reductions in cost

My hunch is the retooling is for Highland M3 most likely. Which is an update to the current M3, but not a total overhaul so I'd think ramping production afterwards should go quickly and smoothly.

I'll be terribly disappointed if the retooling is NOT for Highland M3.

 

[navguy12]

You're misunderstanding the clause.

it's saying you can transfer it (at which point the old car does not have it- so you aren't "somehow selling FSD" to someone else when you dispose of it...) but then in the future you ALSO can't sell it on the car it's transferred TO per these new terms. You'll get to sell it 0 total times.

Which means you end up with a "worse" version of FSD than you started with....because the one you started with you can sell 1 time.


I'm gonna pass and wait until Tesla is forced to admit they can't actually deliver the FSD I was promised on HW3 and they have to make me a better offer than this junk one.

Based on reading your replies over the years, I’ll state for the record that you are correct.

That said, regardless of the minutiae of how the various clauses were/are written, the intent is to get you and me to buy a new car when Tesla’s assumption is the only reason you and I are hanging onto our current one is because you and I don’t want to have to pay for FSD a second time.