Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Snerruc]

Right. I know that, but should we expect the average new car buyer to find TMC and then trust that info?

Do you know what it costs to replace a BMW engine? That’s not readily available either. In the same neighborhood.
check the threads. An out of warranty S85 is a tough sell. Even a car with 1 year left causes a lot of buyers to hesitate. Lots of conversations on TMC about current owners debating about keeping a car they want to keep or dumping it , all battery related.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Wow, what am awesome tweet by Dillon Loomis! Excellent summary that should be read by everyone in this forum.

There isn't anything here that we collectively don't know, but he puts it together in a very cohesive and persuasive manner.

https://x.com/dillonloomis22/status/1694068707792752881?s=46

I've printed Dillon Loomis' tweet and posted it on my fridge. This should be mandatory reading prior to anyone that has their finger on the sell button within the next two years. Thanks @sroh for sharing this gem find.

 

[replicant]

Do you know what it costs to replace a BMW engine? That’s not readily available either. In the same neighborhood.

Wrong analogy.

People not familiar with EV are used to battery degradation forcing them to replace their smartphone. No one is used to replace a whole engine in any products other than cars (and these are seldom).

It's about re-assuring people about widespread fears, even if they are unjustified.

 

[Singuy]

Luckily, Tesla didn't have it's new Cybertruck get an EPA rating below what's expected, or we'd be down 50% instead of just 2.5%.

Cybertruck EPA rating is out?

 

[JusRelax]

Cybertruck EPA rating is out?

No, this was a joke referencing VinFast's stock going up 100% in a day, which was reported as being due to their new vehicle coming in with an EPA rating higher than what was expected.

 

[mongo]

A few days ago, someone pointed out this message on Tesla's website, but I didn't see any follow-up. Is there insight on why Tesla is cautioning about a likely reduction?

$7,500 Federal Tax Credit​

Customers who take delivery of a qualified new Tesla and meet all federal requirements are eligible for a tax credit up to $7,500. Reductions to current federal tax credit likely after Dec 31.

Excluded entity (China) clause kicks in for components (B) in 2024.

‘‘(7) EXCLUDED ENTITIES.—For purposes of this section, the term ‘new clean vehicle’ shall not include—
‘‘(A) any vehicle placed in service after December 31, 2024, with respect to which any of the applicable critical minerals contained in the battery of such vehicle (as described in subsection (e)(1)(A)) were extracted, processed, or recycled by a foreign entity of concern (as defined in section 40207(a)(5) of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (42 U.S.C. 18741(a)(5))), or
‘‘(B) any vehicle placed in service after December 31, 2023, with respect to which any of the components contained in the battery of such vehicle (as described in subsection (e)(2)(A)) were manufactured or assembled by a foreign entity of concern (as so defined).’’.

 

[CHGolferJim]

A few days ago, someone pointed out this message on Tesla's website, but I didn't see any follow-up. Is there insight on why Tesla is cautioning about a likely reduction?

$7,500 Federal Tax Credit​

Customers who take delivery of a qualified new Tesla and meet all federal requirements are eligible for a tax credit up to $7,500. Reductions to current federal tax credit likely after Dec 31.

To encourage sales asap?

 

[CHGolferJim]

I've printed Dillon Loomis' tweet and posted it on my fridge. This should be mandatory reading prior to anyone that has their finger on the sell button within the next two years. Thanks @sroh for sharing this gem find.

I’ve forwarded it to friends who are fellow investors and/or considering purchases of stock or cars.

 

[unk45]

...
The edge Tesla currently may have is software like Autobidder, but any large battery supplier that doesn't have software like than can develop it...

I agree with your post while adding only that major public utility infrastructure suppliers already have Autobidder-like products. AFAIK none thus far have integrated large supply (e.g. utility solar and/or large wind, with small household-level suppliers as Tesla does with VPP, while providing effectively instantaneous response times. Even if none do that today, the EU/UK demands today from wind, in particular argue for seamless integration of every supply source and demand destination within a single grid. Because this is both obvious and crucial Tesla VPP mimics are about to be ubiquitous.

For context, ask @NicoV, whose own house and cars benefit from this capability in Belgium today. I do not know the software provider there, but perhaps he does.

Just as nearly all of us are sure that Tesla has giant opportunities in this sphere, so too do a plethora of other suppliers.

 

[Mengy]

Wow, what am awesome tweet by Dillon Loomis! Excellent summary that should be read by everyone in this forum.

There isn't anything here that we collectively don't know, but he puts it together in a very cohesive and persuasive manner.

https://x.com/dillonloomis22/status/1694068707792752881?s=46

Yep, that's the long term outlook on Tesla in a nutshell. Very well stated in a concise manner too.

 

[Snerruc]

Wrong analogy.

People not familiar with EV are used to battery degradation forcing them to replace their smartphone. No one is used to replace a whole engine in any products other than cars (and these are seldom).

It's about re-assuring people about widespread fears, even if they are unjustified.

However, the fears are justified. I’m on my second pack and beginning to have doubts about it. Read the threads. A S or X out of warranty is problematic.

 

[unk45]

LOLWTF!

View attachment 967482

And we wonder why market makers so love to manipulate TSLA!/s
Anybody, especially with TSLA, who thinks they can be long term successful as an individual speculator need only consider this chart.

 

[Unpilot]

Wow, what am awesome tweet by Dillon Loomis! Excellent summary that should be read by everyone in this forum.

There isn't anything here that we collectively don't know, but he puts it together in a very cohesive and persuasive manner.

https://x.com/dillonloomis22/status/1694068707792752881?s=46

He explains every acronym he uses EXCEPT the one he says is most important!

What is KPI?!?
Key Performance Indicator?

 

[Nocturnal]

Exactly. All this talk of battery replacement cost is just anti-ev FUD. People here should know better. I have a 2018 Model 3. The battery has an 8-year warranty. If it needed to be replaced it would cost me $0.

It is at about 99% of the range when I bought it 5+ years ago (310 then, 305-308 now), so I don't expect to ever replace the battery.

That's literally the entire point. People here DO know better. We are in the tiny minority of tesla/ev obsessives though.

Since when is it verboten here to discuss how to fix FUD?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Possible reason for the premarket drop.

Options Open Interest data is released at 07:00 ET. SP promptly dropped from $232 to $227 in 10 min. Max Pain is $227.50. Don't need any other explanation: MMs manipulations in the low-volume pre-Market session:

Completely disconnected from the reality (which you will never get from B.I. in Berlin)

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[CHGolferJim]

However, the fears are justified. I’m on my second pack and beginning to have doubts about it. Read the threads. A S or X out of warranty is problematic.

Another case of anecdotal reports vs. reliable statistics (which seem to be closely held)?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Another case of anecdotal reports vs. reliable statistics (which seem to be closely held)?

People like wk057 might be a good source of information, if they're more open. They'll see more customers as the warranties run out and for some that will be earlier than 8 years because of the warranty mileage limit.

Future value of Tesla rests on batteries not only being cheap, but reliable.

 

[Stormy24]

B.I.??

business insider

 

[Artful Dodger]

B.I.??

The Giga Berlin story was a Business Insider hitpiece that came out yesterday. However MMs needed to see the Open Interest numbers at 7 a.m. today before they realized it was 'bad'.

F.U.D.

 

[UncaNed]

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Panasonic

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na.panasonic.com

Currently Tesla have approximately 10% of the global stationary storage market, which is approximately equal in % to BYD and Sungrow (by eye on these charts). The HyperStrong, Nextera, Huawei, Fluence, Powin, KEHUA TECH and Narada players all range about 5% down to 3%. So that is about 50-60% of the global stationary storage market in the hands of the top 10 players. Looking at the charts the top 20 players (so including Nextera, SMA, Canadian Solar, etc) total about 70-80% of the market.

Six Chinese companies were among top 10 global energy storage system suppliers in 2023H1 | Shanghai Non ferrous Metals

According to SMM statistics, the global energy storage system shipments in 2023H1 reached 72.4 Gwh. China’s shipments were 47Gwh, accounting for 65%; overseas shipments were 25.4Gwh, accounting for 35%; global energy storage system shipments were still dominated by Chinese integrators. Tesla’s...

news.metal.com

An important difference is that some (but definitely not all at scale) of those storage players also do solar manufacturing. So for example 2022 was 270GW of solar modules (of which Tesla installed 0.3 GW ....). Again - as always - be careful to distinguish between manufacture and install. The biggest PV module manufacturers are pure plays mind you - for example BYD at 1-2GW (I think) is a very small scale player.

Top PV module manufacturers by shipment volume in 2022

TrendForce has ranked the top six module manufacturers by shipment volume in 2022, with Longi topping the list, followed by Trina Solar and JinkoSolar. JA Solar, Canadian Solar, and Risen Energy rounded out the top six, in a year dominated by large-format modules.

www.pv-magazine.com

And Tesla is finally starting to address this by changing its solar strategy: outsourcing install. The problem that Tesla has is that solar tiles are a deadend bet versus modules, and if Tesla drops the tiles then it is just a module reseller (intermediary) for the big (Chinese) solar manufacturers. Not really a value-add.

Tesla changes its solar strategy, lays off workers, bets on certified installers

Tesla is evidently changing its solar strategy by starting to move away from having its own installers and relying more...

electrek.co

I don't know if Tesla needs to own the full stack. It may be that PV module manufacturing remains best addressed as a separate pure play. There are precedents - automotive and petroleum industries were absoltely interdependent, but almost entirely separate. For now it is better that Tesla get the storage + inverter + software part of the stack right as they do have a chance to remain a significant player in that area. Holding a 10% global market share of that and a top-three place would be nice. And let us be clear - Tesla is not there yet as it does not yet have a top 3 place in inverters, nor a 10% market share in them.

I had no clue there were so many apparently successful storage companies; (thank you, @unk45 !) so does this mean storage and solar remain relatively unremarkable won't likely grow nor be as profitable as Tesla's Automotive over the last 10 years, storage being something more resembling a commodity than a one-brand-is-the-leader (like Apple with phones), Tesla with cars?