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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Elon Musk, Walter Isaacson:


“He would drive from his home in the Bel Air neighborhood of Los Angeles to the SpaceX headquarters near the airport, where they would discuss the problems his Autopilot system encountered. “Every meeting started with Elon saying, ‘Why can’t the car drive itself from my home to work?’ ” says Drew Baglino, one of Tesla’s senior vice presidents.

This sometimes led the Tesla team to do some Keystone Kops scrambling. There was a curve on Interstate 405 that always caused Musk trouble because the lane markings were faded. The Autopilot would swerve out of the lane and almost hit oncoming cars. Musk would come into the office furious. “Do something to program this right,” he kept demanding. This went on for months as the team tried to improve the Autopilot software.

In desperation, Sam Teller and others came up with a simpler solution: ask the transportation department to repaint the lanes of that section of the highway. When they got no response, they came up with a more audacious plan. They decided to rent a line-painting machine of their own, go out at 3 a.m., shut the highway down for an hour, and redo the lanes. They had gone “as far as tracking down a line-painting machine when someone finally got through to a person at the transportation department who was a Musk fan. He agreed to have the lines repainted if he and a few others at the department could get a tour of SpaceX. Teller gave them a tour, they posed for a picture, and the highway lines got repainted. After that, Musk’s Autopilot handled the curve well.

Baglino was among the Tesla engineers who wanted to continue to use radar to supplement camera vision. “There was just such a gulf between Elon’s goal and the possible,” says Baglino. “He just wasn’t aware enough of “the challenges.”

At one point Baglino’s team did an analysis of the distance perception an autopilot system would need for situations such as at a stop sign. How far left and right did the car need to see in order to know when it could safely cross?

“We’re trying to have those conversations with Elon to establish what the sensors would need to do,” Baglino says. “And they were really difficult conversations, because he kept coming back to the fact that people have just two eyes and they can drive the car. But those eyes are attached to a neck, and the neck can move, and people can position those eyes all over the place.”

This is from early days of FSD when they used Mobileye, but the culture and approach are the problem. You can’t scale unreasonable problem solving with this type of corner cutting mentality. And why anything Elon says has an unreliable narrator problem, which is why I’ve been saying the clues for real FSD isn’t in something from his tweets, but signs like (1) tesla telling regulators they’re starting to count autonomous miles, (2) the crowdsourced FSD tracker going parabolic on interventions per mile.
Weird, linkedin says Drew Baglino worked/works on powertrains and energy storage systems, I didn't see any mentioning of him working on Autopilot.

Also Sam Teller - the guy who did the corner cutting - is not an engineer, he was Elon's aide.
 
Not much discussion about new 48 volt architecture for the Cybertruck/Nextgen car and the impact on margin. Besides reduced cost for less copper used and reduced weight are there other cost advantages? Any estimates on savings? Is POE going to be used?
Other cost savings would be smaller heat sinks and some components no longer needing heat sinks.

Lower resistive losses mean less of the energy stored in the battery is converted to waste heat, that is probably more significant when the powertrain moves to a higher voltage.

But overall all of the savings could mean a smaller pack can provide the same range with obvious cost savings there.

Initially I would just base estimated savings on the reduce amount of copper wiring and less time to build/install the wiring harness.

We don't know the build / install time, but building one of those conventional wiring harnesses doesn't look like an easy / quick exercise. In some ways it is a miracle that this part of vehicle assembly can keep up with the production run rate.
 
Presenting the new Tesla grandchild, proudly sporting the Tesla brand.

Then it hit me…

Let’s try to go easy on her. She deserves a better planet. Do it for baby G. Please, and thank you!

IMG_5935.jpeg
 
A while back I mentioned I was getting disillusioned with Ford and had sold a portion of our Ford stock. Someone asked why only a portion, and I said I was hopeful they could turn things around and I’d miss the quarterly dividends, currently at 4.75%.

Well, about a couple months ago we sold the shares we had in Karen’s IRA and bought TSLA with the proceeds. And last night I put in a market order to unload our remaining shares. That will probably go into TSLA as well. As an aside, we did have tiny gains in each Ford position, so not a total loss, and of course there were those dividends.

I still wish Ford well, but with the strike on top of all their other problems I’m not optimistic - for Ford, or any US “legacy” manufacturer.
 
#FundingSecured! 🤪

I guess building a factory isn't the same as a hostile take-over

Gentrifying Mordor and all that...

Plus I'm pretty sure there wouldn't be much environmentalists delaying any project, plus imagine the solar panels they could deploy!!
 
#FundingSecured! 🤪

I guess building a factory isn't the same as a hostile take-over

Gentrifying Mordor and all that...

Plus I'm pretty sure there wouldn't be much environmentalists delaying any project, plus imagine the solar panels they could deploy!!

Tesla Factory Wanted in Turkey. Country's President Erdogan Calls on Musk. | Barron's (54 mins ago)


In a meeting with Musk near the United Nations in New York, Erdogan asked the Tesla CEO to put the eighth factory for its (ticker: TSLA) electric vehicles in...

I think Billy Squier said it best: "Everybody wants you".

Cheers!
 
A while back I mentioned I was getting disillusioned with Ford and had sold a portion of our Ford stock. Someone asked why only a portion, and I said I was hopeful they could turn things around and I’d miss the quarterly dividends, currently at 4.75%.

Well, about a couple months ago we sold the shares we had in Karen’s IRA and bought TSLA with the proceeds. And last night I put in a market order to unload our remaining shares. That will probably go into TSLA as well. As an aside, we did have tiny gains in each Ford position, so not a total loss, and of course there were those dividends.

I still wish Ford well, but with the strike on top of all their other problems I’m not optimistic - for Ford, or any US “legacy” manufacturer.
I think Ford is a bad investment in absolute terms but you can get 4.75 in a money market so the dividend is no reason to hold.
 
Tesla, Saudi Arabia in Early Talks for EV Factory - WSJ The Wall Street Journal | 10 mins ago



View attachment 974888

Hahaha! Saudi's. Maybe a Megafactory and a huge solar farm, if they agree to export more electricity and less oil going forward!

Cheers!
I don't get it. The Saudis are flush with cash. It makes sense to me to use that cash to build their own clean energy businesses in order to hold onto their energy dominance as their oil & gas business declines. Bringing in Tesla, while being good for tax revenue and some economic stimulus, is inviting a competitor to come and take business that could belong to them.
 
I think Ford is a bad investment in absolute terms but you can get 4.75 in a money market so the dividend is no reason to hold.
Or get a 5.4% liquid savings account with Goldman/Marcus with my referral code. ;)

As I'm a macrodoomer I sold half my TSLA up around 300 a couple months ago and tossed all the cash in there while waiting for the big dip. While I didn't sell anything back in Jan it really hurt to see numbers like that and I had no cash at the time to buy the dip. Now, I'm alright if it goes up or down.
 
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I don't get it. The Saudis are flush with cash. It makes sense to me to use that cash to build their own clean energy businesses in order to hold onto their energy dominance as their oil & gas business declines. Bringing in Tesla, while being good for tax revenue and some economic stimulus, is inviting a competitor to come and take business that could belong to them.
If you don't have the skills and technology to build your own...
 
Or get a 5.4% liquid savings account with Goldman/Marcus with my referral code. ;)

As I'm a macrodoomer I sold half my TSLA up around 300 a couple months ago and tossed all the cash in there while waiting for the big dip. While I didn't sell anything back in Jan it really hurt to see numbers like that and I had no cash at the time to buy the dip. Now, I'm alright if it goes up or down.
I think the current interest rates are an under appreciated headwind for the stock market. If you're wealthy and have ten million, you can get 500K a year in interest. Why put your money in a volatile market when you can get a stress free 500K?