Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[zoomer0056]

the general public is unaware of the advantages of a tesla EV, increasing awareness and educating
them may well increase the addressable market

Let the big 3 continue to put that word out. Everybody knows about Tesla. If one becomes interested in an EV because of a big 3 ad, they will surely look into Tesla. No need for Tesla to advertise.

 

[ggr]

Mod: there is a thread that already contains all of the pro- and con- arguments about advertising. No more here. --ggr

 

[Cosmacelf]

Raising the price of the yolk to $1k is a precursor to killing it. Almost no one will pay that. It’s probably gone in a year.
Personally I don’t think the yolk cost Tesla much in sales. People already motivated to buy an S/X were mostly willing to tolerate it and a few probably got used to the yolk and are now ok with it.

However it didn’t gain them any new customers either and that is why it is a bad product.
What is the point of making such a drastic change if it doesn’t become a selling point and bring in new buyers.

Oh geez. Yes it did bring in new buyers. I put down a deposit the night of the reveal because of the yoke to upgrade my Model X.

$1K for a cool differentiating feature is peanuts. Lots of people will pay for it. Don’t make the mistake of thinking everyone thinks like you do.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Would the stock drop on the CyberTruck reveal “news”? All depends on price and range, right? A 20 yr battery, ya that’s a booster for sure. But that would just kill Ford’s Lightning IMHO.

Something tells me Tesla goes easy on Ford, CT is no surprise (initially) and the stock drops for a few days. Probably because it’s too shiny like my crystal ball. Recalling the range boost on initial Model 3, especially if testing out new 4680 chem.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Clearly confused (or lucky), picked up 50 shares @245 mark.

 

[Singuy]

Shorts are really attacking Spy 430 trying to break this critical support.

 

[2daMoon]

Very well said.

The tough reality on the TMC Forums is that any negative news (the things that drag our SP down around, what, ~60% of its all time high), is shunned and blasphemous. There's a lot of "Shoot the messenger" here.

Your post was a breath of fresh air and I hope others will realize that our TSLA performance is ALSO a result of a many self-induced negative drivers . . . . The sooner we get a BoD with some teeth and ability to call the CEO on his "stuff," the better.

Everyone needs to be reigned in on occasion or bad things can result.

So, you are saying that you are unhappy with TSLA performance?

I know, I know, they promised 50% CAGR and it has done what over the past five years? I'm sure the facts of these numbers will support the tale of woe you are so determined to spread far and wide.

Let's see...

Tesla Revenue TTM CAGR Historical Data​

What is the 3 year revenue TTM CAGR for Tesla Inc (TSLA)?​

The 3 year revenue TTM compound annual growth rate for TSLA stock is 54.07%.​

What is the 5 year revenue TTM CAGR for Tesla Inc (TSLA)?​

The 5 year revenue TTM compound annual growth rate for TSLA stock is 47%.​

What is the 10 year revenue TTM CAGR for Tesla Inc (TSLA)?​

The 10 year revenue TTM compound annual growth rate for TSLA stock is 53.13%.​

What is the 15 year revenue TTM CAGR for Tesla Inc (TSLA)?​

The 15 year revenue TTM compound annual growth rate for TSLA stock is 63.57%.​

Heck, even the immediate TTM CAGR is 39.99%, which, after taking 2022 into consideration, is flat out amazing.​

So, after all the terrible effects of Elon upon the SP, which you keep going on and on about, TSLA is on target, often exceeding it, year after year after year.

Tesla has achieved this unprecedented growth, despite a market that has been less than cooperative, with a seemingly biased press generating FUD, as well as being the most optioned and the most shorted stock in the market, while having several 800 pound gorillas (Oil, Auto, Advertising, Energy) hounding it at every turn.

Yes, I can see how you have quite made the valid point here. Well done, well done indeed!

Elon IS destroying Tesla while at the helm and the BoD should step in and remove him...

so that Tesla can have a CAGR more in line with their peers. /s​

What exactly can you show in the way of measurable fact to support the existence of any long-term negative effect on Tesla derived from Elon's behavior, of which you feel the need to continually expound upon?

I'm not seeing how a trader's short-term disappointment and the insatiable longing to blame someone over it can be twisted in such a way to demonstrate there being any substance at all to this ongoing tirade.

 

[AnbaricBike]

may I remind you of a grassroots EV advertising that has been going on a long time, years (decades) in fact, with miniscule costs to manufacturers and self selected crowds of potential and future owners

National Drive Electric Week

National Drive Electric Week events feature plug-in electric vehicle owners sharing their experience with others interested in driving electric. #NDEW2024

driveelectricweek.org

I just signed up to demo my Leaf!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Seems Ford kicked in enough to avoid new walk-outs, as experienced by the other 2 today. They got graded then compared publicly! I actually like this Fain guy's approach, and good for the working class. Ford basically made the others look cheap-n-greedy.

Ford - C+
Stellantis - F
General Mary - F

I wonder if this is because Ford has more cash and an actual chance at the EV market down the road? The other 2 are possibly looking forward to downsizing as the short-term solution before they jump and pull the ripcord. Mary's gonna lead... again.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Not sure why Tesla is down specifically today with a flat NASDAQ and -0.25% S&P. Most China BEV stocks are well up today. AI stocks up. Even Ford and Stallantis up UAW strike and all. My guess is Cybertruck (latest Austin drone footage shows stoppage of production) along with revised higher for longer interest rate. Regardless, one trading day does not make a stock.

IMO Cybertruck has already been revealed through videos and sightings (except for confirming specifics on range and pricing). Cybertruck will move the TSLA stock only when production in mass volumes (1,000+ per week) and this is still two quarters away (Q1, 2024).

For what it is worth, TSLA is still trending increases above the recent lows (RED line) and hopefully this can hold. If so, this gets TSLA to $300 by February 2024. I previously was hopeful for $300 by end of 2023, however with Cybertruck and Interest data, another couple of months seems reasonable. This line appears near parallel with the Stephenson Indicator (PURPLE line). Yes, both these lines are linear and I believe even the Stephenson Indicator will be achievable in the near future when Tesla is producing 5,000+ Cybertrucks per week and major ramping of Tesla Energy. We simply are not there yet. Just trying to set expectations. No teacups for me. Just some black coffee, thank you.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Regardless of the general public's knowledge of EVs, Tesla is selling every car they can produce. Advertising in such a scenario will lead to longer waits for the car and people complaining about it.

Once Tesla gets production to the point that they have significantly more cars coming off the line than they have buyers, then, you will see Tesla ads. Not before.

or they could raise prices to shorten the wait time

 

[SOULPEDL]

Not sure why Tesla is down specifically today with a flat NASDAQ and -0.25% S&P. Most China BEV stocks are well up today. AI stocks up. Even Ford and Stallantis up UAW strike and all. My guess is Cybertruck (latest Austin drone footage shows stoppage of production) along with revised higher for longer interest rate. Regardless, one trading day does not make a stock.

IMO Cybertruck has already been revealed through videos and sightings (except for confirming specifics on range and pricing). Cybertruck will move the TSLA stock only when production in mass volumes (1,000+ per week) and this is still two quarters away (Q1, 2024).

For what it is worth, TSLA is still trending increases above the recent lows (RED line) and hopefully this can hold. If so, this gets TSLA to $300 by February 2024. I previously was hopeful for $300 by end of 2023, however with Cybertruck and Interest data, another couple of months seems reasonable. This line appears near parallel with the Stephenson Indicator (PURPLE line). Yes, both these lines are linear and I believe even the Stephenson Indicator will be achievable in the near future when Tesla is producing 5,000+ Cybertrucks per week and major ramping of Tesla Energy. We simply are not there yet. Just trying to set expectations. No teacups for me. Just some black coffee, thank you.
View attachment 976359

Exactly. And the red trend line was what I was trying to describe earlier today. Hoping it holds up, no guarantees.

 

[thx1139]

Not sure why Tesla is down specifically today with a flat NASDAQ and -0.25% S&P. Most China BEV stocks are well up today. AI stocks up. Even Ford and Stallantis up UAW strike and all. My guess is Cybertruck (latest Austin drone footage shows stoppage of production) along with revised higher for longer interest rate. Regardless, one trading day does not make a stock.

IMO Cybertruck has already been revealed through videos and sightings (except for confirming specifics on range and pricing). Cybertruck will move the TSLA stock only when production in mass volumes (1,000+ per week) and this is still two quarters away (Q1, 2024).

For what it is worth, TSLA is still trending increases above the recent lows (RED line) and hopefully this can hold. If so, this gets TSLA to $300 by February 2024. I previously was hopeful for $300 by end of 2023, however with Cybertruck and Interest data, another couple of months seems reasonable. This line appears near parallel with the Stephenson Indicator (PURPLE line). Yes, both these lines are linear and I believe even the Stephenson Indicator will be achievable in the near future when Tesla is producing 5,000+ Cybertrucks per week and major ramping of Tesla Energy. We simply are not there yet. Just trying to set expectations. No teacups for me. Just some black coffee, thank you.
View attachment 976359

I think it is analysts seeing Tesla missing date and not handling a transition well. CyberTruck wont be released Q3 and Model 3 Highland wont release in USA until 2024 according to leaks. They see this as poor execution. Maybe short term, but after poor execution of Model S and Model X transition I think they believe history maybe repeating itself.

Model 3 release - Problematic at best
Model Y release - Very good
Model S transition - Bad
Model X transition - Terrible
Semi release - Not really real
Cybertruck release - Delayed over and over and over
Model 3 Highland transition - Worrisome

 

[SOULPEDL]

View attachment 976359

Assuming normality to some degree, where's the approximate intersection, about 230?

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think it is analysts seeing Tesla missing date and not handling a transition well. CyberTruck wont be released Q3 and Model 3 Highland wont release in USA until 2024 according to leaks. They see this as poor execution. Maybe short term, but after poor execution of Model S and Model X transition I think they believe history maybe repeating itself.

Model 3 release - Problematic at best
Model Y release - Very good
Model S transition - Bad
Model X transition - Terrible
Semi release - Not really real
Cybertruck release - Delayed over and over and over
Model 3 Highland transition - Worrisome

I don't think Tesla would sit back and let it drop so much and risk going for the 200 Day. Remember, this affects Tesla employee pay and they're looking a bit low on the comparison with the big 3. So flat to up would be desirable in order to head off any workforce rumblings.

How Tesla accomplishes this (in the event of production shortfall in Q3) is possibly to combine it with some robot factory demo or other surprise. Not too hot, and not too cold. It may not be their style, but things are different today with the strike happening and wages compared.

 

[chronopublish]

Not sure why Tesla is down specifically today with a flat NASDAQ and -0.25% S&P. Most China BEV stocks are well up today. AI stocks up. Even Ford and Stallantis up UAW strike and all. My guess is Cybertruck (latest Austin drone footage shows stoppage of production) along with revised higher for longer interest rate. Regardless, one trading day does not make a stock.

IMO Cybertruck has already been revealed through videos and sightings (except for confirming specifics on range and pricing). Cybertruck will move the TSLA stock only when production in mass volumes (1,000+ per week) and this is still two quarters away (Q1, 2024).

For what it is worth, TSLA is still trending increases above the recent lows (RED line) and hopefully this can hold. If so, this gets TSLA to $300 by February 2024. I previously was hopeful for $300 by end of 2023, however with Cybertruck and Interest data, another couple of months seems reasonable. This line appears near parallel with the Stephenson Indicator (PURPLE line). Yes, both these lines are linear and I believe even the Stephenson Indicator will be achievable in the near future when Tesla is producing 5,000+ Cybertrucks per week and major ramping of Tesla Energy. We simply are not there yet. Just trying to set expectations. No teacups for me. Just some black coffee, thank you.
View attachment 976359

I don’t think volume production of CT is required to move the stock to 300. The market already gave us a preview of what the stock movement could be when start of production is imminent, as it climbed to the 290s leading into Q2 earnings, stayed flat when earnings were released, then tanked during the conference call the moment Elon said start of CT production was on track for “end of the year”.

I think real CTs showing up in real customers’ hands, in any number, is extremely likely to cause a rally.

 

[2daMoon]

or they could raise prices to shorten the wait time

That goes against the intent to reduce costs and prices as stated in the Master Plan, doesn't it?

 

[MountainRatMat]

I don't think Tesla would sit back and let it drop so much and risk going for the 200 Day.

I don't think Tesla can exert that kind of control on the stock price short term.

 

[jerry33]

I don't think Tesla can exert that kind of control on the stock price short term.

Right. Tesla doesn't have the ability to manufacture unlimited virtual shares.

 

[GhostSkater]

Since it's the weekend, you guys know Elon got the new iPhone? This was the main reason, best steps to Xeet are no steps

https://twitter.com/x/status/1705289436986998979