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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Does this chart include Teslas or is it mostly just legacy? Is it averaged by volume sold per model or just an average price of all the cars where each model counts the same regardless of volume? Some countries have a lot of really cheap ICE cars.
if you want to do ICE price comparison then any EV below 250 miles range does not count
GhostSkater
Member
Another Semi record day, even if it's by only 2 miles from the previous one, as my friend Dom used to say:
"It doesn't matter if you win by an inch or a mile; winning's winning"
"It doesn't matter if you win by an inch or a mile; winning's winning"
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Tell that to all the people driving a Nissan Leaf.
or put another way I call BS.
An EV that does 100 miles on a charge is fully functional to me so long as battery degradation doesn't exist. If degradation is 3% per year back that out for how ever many years you expect a car to be fully functional and you have your minimum range for new. I expect you'll find it's well below 200 miles.
For example a car that starts out new at 140 miles range and degrades 3% per year for 11 years is still above 100 miles per charge.
I personally want the lowest range Tesla I can get if all the other features are the same other than price and range, I'm going to take the shorter range car for price reasons.
I'm basing the "Ave EV prices" on this link shared by @winfield100 last week. It's pretty interesting as it compares EV prices before and after the rebates. I believe it's including the Hybrids but not very many. Most of these have some decent range (scooters aside).
https://evadc.wildapricot.org/resources/Documents/EVInfo/EVInfoSheet.pdf
Don't the lowest range Teslas have LFPs that never degrade and can always be charged to 100%?
navguy12
Active Member
That average ICE figure of $48K, I always have issue with because that includes all the huge number of plutonium edition F-150s and Escalades/Yukons etc, but there is no similar EV model for those (yet).
Sure, there are EVs below that figure (Bolt comes to mind)…but how much for an non-EV Bolt equivalent?
Ya got me thinking - what is the acceptable equivalent BEV vs ICE?
Most cannot drive 250 straight without rest (and charging). So then what EV range should be used to compared to ICE for cost parity on the initial purchase only?
Thought experiment... imagine a world of Super Chargers every 50 miles. In this scenario, I'd think 150 mi range would be sufficient to get anywhere needed. (Trucks and towing aside.) It's a bit like comparing two ICE vehicles where one has 2x the horsepower. If we based it off of horsepower BEVs are WAY cheaper. Seems pretty subjective overall.
Maybe best to just point out to newcomers that BEVs are competitive even on sticker price as the battery costs and manufacturing techniques drive the costs down further, while the real savings pay back over time.
(Edit: Mostly OT, but what if we could draw an acceptable line of comparison that could attract more sales to the lower range BEV side? That would result in more vehicles sold for the same battery volume. Are we simply range happy due to past struggles and the media?)
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Technically- no. All batteries degrade over time, and charging to 100% makes it worse in all cases.
Practically however? LFPs have notably higher durability to this stuff than the types normally used in EVs such that by the time those things become significant you're almost certainly well beyond the useful lifetime of the vehicle.
Attached is a chart from a study a few years ago on degradation vs # of cycles-- it won't be 1:1 with Teslas but gives you an idea how lifespan is much better (but not infinite) on LFP vs NMC
The only winning that counts is production at scale. Tesla still has pole position but the competition is waking up.
Cummins, Daimler and Paccar partner on $3 billion battery plant for electric trucks
Daimler Truck, Cummins and Paccar are forming a joint venture to build a battery plant in the U.S. to help accelerate production of electric trucks.
www.detroitnews.com
To put some numbers on this, minimum range should the greater of: 1) Three or four days of commuting (for power outage). 2) The distance (plus unforeseen allowance) between Superchargers if one location is out (on a trip you often take). So 150 miles between Superchargers (there are two of these on a trip I frequently take) means minimum of 350 miles range.
The problem is that the fossil-fuel industry receives more subsidies than any other, except it's so insidious and "normal" that it's never questioned and not apparent to the wider public. Remove all of that, trash the IRA, let real pricing, features and value for money determine the markets. BEV's would win every time
This argument, oft repeated, while good for $TSLA's mission is not really relevant (IMO).
The late starting competition has to 'catch' a moving target. That target (Tesla) has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to move faster than any competition.
That start-up mentality is (IMO) directly linked to Musk - long live Musk! ;-)
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Good point.
Their race to catch Tesla must include the ability to shoot from the hip and iterate with speed and accuracy on a moving assembly line the way Tesla has demonstrated, daily if necessary.
The deeply entrenched mindset of legacy OEMs is glacial in comparison. They have been resting on their laurels and only innovating when forced to do so for so long that they can't even imagine the approach Tesla uses. Someone accustomed to a 5-year cycle of change will choke on a 5 hour cycle of change.
In order for those OEMs to move into the new age of manufacturing they may have to replace most of their engineering and management staff as the old habits will further hinder the transition. Then, there is the integration of mutually-compatible software into their horizontal supply chain.
It will be an arduous struggle. It could take ten to twenty years for them to reach parity with Tesla today.
Where will Tesla have moved the benchmark by then?
Is it just my impression, but you seem to have an awful lot of couches...?
There could be some room for the short-haul market, assuming they are still solvent by the time their batteries are produced. Long haul, it's not going to happen IMO because, by then, Tesla would have automated the driver with FSD. There would be very limited market for these without FSD. Tesla long-haulers would always be cheaper without drivers even if they needed staff at the docks to load/unload.
Lol, maybe you missed that I sold 200... same day. Hence my "Not Advice" notice.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Following on the heels of the discussion about legacy OEMs catching up, it brought to mind how a similar process is going on in the arena on Wall Street.
Because, in a similar way, many of the denizens of the street are mostly skimmers of information. They try to learn a little about a lot of ticker symbols hoping they will stumble upon a winner, and, in moving too quickly will often miss or misunderstand the information needed to grok a company who is disrupting multiple industries simultaneously.
Some of these skimmers are highly dependent upon a handful of skilled analysts to interpret the information for them in a way that they may gain some insight and make better choices. But, Tesla is so remarkably different that even when those trusted analysts share their findings, it is almost incomprehensible for the lion's share of skimmers to wrap their heads around what it means.
When has something like this happened before? Is it any wonder many are unable to recognize such a rare and elusive species of company?
This is why we HODLorians wait patiently, biding our time and scratching our heads for that "Eureka!" moment when enough of the traders finally see how "investing" might be the better play with TSLA. This will be another tipping point where the momentum will result in those skimmers, who still don't quite understand, see the writing on the wall and decide to jump in mostly because of FOMO, if nothing else.
Waiting is frustrating. We see those among our ranks who have succumbed to the FUD, the threat of margin calls, and the market forces that influence the day to day stock price.
However, with the knowledge we have gleaned by studying Tesla, the company, we are able to see through the fear, uncertainty, and doubt with full knowledge of what this company has done, is doing, and shows every indication of continuing to do as the future unfolds.
Before casting stones at Elon or Tesla, bring a comparison to another company who is doing it better. If that example cannot be found, it may be a good idea to reevaluate the information that drove one to gather those stones in the first place.
Because, in a similar way, many of the denizens of the street are mostly skimmers of information. They try to learn a little about a lot of ticker symbols hoping they will stumble upon a winner, and, in moving too quickly will often miss or misunderstand the information needed to grok a company who is disrupting multiple industries simultaneously.
Some of these skimmers are highly dependent upon a handful of skilled analysts to interpret the information for them in a way that they may gain some insight and make better choices. But, Tesla is so remarkably different that even when those trusted analysts share their findings, it is almost incomprehensible for the lion's share of skimmers to wrap their heads around what it means.
When has something like this happened before? Is it any wonder many are unable to recognize such a rare and elusive species of company?
This is why we HODLorians wait patiently, biding our time and scratching our heads for that "Eureka!" moment when enough of the traders finally see how "investing" might be the better play with TSLA. This will be another tipping point where the momentum will result in those skimmers, who still don't quite understand, see the writing on the wall and decide to jump in mostly because of FOMO, if nothing else.
Waiting is frustrating. We see those among our ranks who have succumbed to the FUD, the threat of margin calls, and the market forces that influence the day to day stock price.
However, with the knowledge we have gleaned by studying Tesla, the company, we are able to see through the fear, uncertainty, and doubt with full knowledge of what this company has done, is doing, and shows every indication of continuing to do as the future unfolds.
Before casting stones at Elon or Tesla, bring a comparison to another company who is doing it better. If that example cannot be found, it may be a good idea to reevaluate the information that drove one to gather those stones in the first place.
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There used to be an atmosphere of buying dips here, but I get the feeling it's either OT now, or just not happening, OR you're all waiting for a bigger DIP,, or the Pop is imminent? Congratulations to the HODLers, perhaps the traders are broke by now? The difference is... "I have a system." 
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